Will Social Security checks be late? How the debt limit fight could impact your July payments

WASHINGTON−Like dueling pianos, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy simultaneously stood in front of microphones Tuesday evening − with one at the White House and the other at the Capitol − to blame each other and their opposing political parties for why the country could run out of money to pay its bills for the first time in U.S. history.

While they made their jabs, the health and financial security of millions of Americans across the country remained at risk. Though getting Republicans and Democrats to agree on financial aid is never a simple task, the side effect of the standoff is clear: U.S. residents who rely on government payments for their salaries, retirement money, food assistance, medical care and more would lose those benefits if the nation doesn't have money to cover its obligations.

The Tuesday news conferences didn't solve that problem. They did little more than prove Biden, McCarthy and other top congressional leaders made little progress during their Oval Office meeting that afternoon. McCarthy said there was no movement toward a solution and the only real sign of progress was they met for the first time in 97 days.

They met to rev up negotiations and spare the nation from defaulting on its obligations − something that has never happened in America but could happen this year as soon as June 1, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The meeting: Biden, McCarthy fail to reach a debt ceiling deal in Oval Office meeting as default looms

Social Security payments at risk in July

If the country's top leaders don't reach an agreement to raise the nation's borrowing limit and her predictions come true, it would lead to catastrophic and devastating effects across the country, Yellen, Treasury secretaries before her and multiple economists agree.

One of the biggest impacts would be to Social Security. The program, which millions of Americans rely on for money in retirement, is often seen by politicians as the untouchable vanguard of government aid, but it has been the subject of fierce debate between Republicans and Democrats in the 118th Congress. If the debt ceiling isn't raised by the projected default date in June, the July Social Security benefits would be in jeopardy.

With three weeks until June 1 − during which both chambers of Congress are in session for just 10 days − Yellen has been emphasizing the "economic calamity" that could result without a debt limit increase.

"Whether it's defaulting on interest payments that are due on the debt or payments due for Social Security recipients or to Medicare providers, we would simply not have enough cash to meet all of our obligations," she said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." "And it's widely agreed that financial and economic chaos would ensue."

What to know: Planning for retirement? 3 harsh Social Security truths to consider.

Are Social Security benefits really at risk in default?

Some economists have said Social Security payments might be delayed or disrupted at most, and some have said they wouldn't be impacted at all.

Despite some talk on Capitol Hill that the government could or would somehow prioritize payments in a default so seniors and veterans are taken care of, Yellen has said there is no plan for that.

Also, because the government has never defaulted on its obligations, there's no clear roadmap for what would happen and U.S. systems have not been tested operationally in a scenario like that.

During a Senate Appropriations hearing on March 22, Yellen said her job as Treasury secretary is to make sure all the bills are paid, not to decide which bills are more important than others.

"Prioritization is default by another name," she said. "Not paying any of our bills is default. When you think about the pain that it would cause to Social Security recipients, to food stamp recipients, to vendors who have supplied services, to the government who have their own payrolls to meet, to be told they are not going to be paid, the government is not going to honor those bills. That’s a default."

The government pays millions of bills a day and its payment systems are set up to pay all the government’s bills when they come due. "They are not setup to divide payments into different types as a general matter," Yellen said.

"For many agencies, payments of all different types are mixed together in ways that couldn’t be disentangled," she added.

Poll: As Social Security and Medicare face shortfalls, most Americans oppose cutting their benefits

When are Biden and McCarthy meeting again about the debt ceiling?

Top congressional aides will continue to meet with White House officials through the week, and Biden and McCarthy are set to meet again Friday.

Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling without federal spending cuts in exchange. Democrats say the nation's borrowing limit should be raised without conditions and federal spending negotiations should happen separately.

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers who represent states with the most Social Security recipients, such as McCarthy's home state of California, are raising concerns and blasting the House GOP proposal that passed April 26 and would raise the debt ceiling while cutting trillions in federal spending.

What Democrats are telling USA TODAY

About 66 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, federal data shows. Payments are made not only to people of retirement age, but also millions of children and others with severe disabilities.

McCarthy's home state of California has the most Social Security recipients in the country, with more than 6 million residents receiving the benefit, according to federal data. It is also the state with the highest population. More than 15 million people there receive Medicaid and about 4.5 million receive Medicare − the most of any state.

Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., told USA TODAY Republicans are using a potential default as leverage to try and force cuts "their members would never actually vote for as standalone bills because of the public backlash they would face."

Cuts to critical programs like food assistance, Medicaid and more "would be devastating to the people in my district and across the country who rely on these programs to get by," he said. "We have to first pay our bills and then we can rationally discuss deficit reduction."

Impact: 'I don't have anything in my refrigerator': GOP debt ceiling plan would cut SNAP benefits

Nearly 3 million Pennsylvanians receive Social Security benefits. Nearly 3 million are on Medicare, and nearly 4 million are on Medicaid, according to federal data.

"If the debt ceiling is not raised in time, then Social Security and Medicare payments will be late. Veterans benefits will be impacted as well. The MAGA Republicans are jeopardizing the livelihoods of seniors and veterans with their antics," Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa., told USA TODAY. He is the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.

Another Pennsylvania Democrat, Sen. Bob Casey, told USA TODAY in a statement, "Make no mistake: House Republicans are trying to take away health care for seniors, children, and people with disabilities. Avoiding default cannot and will not come at the expense of ripping health care coverage away from millions of Pennsylvanians. I will fight to protect Medicaid any way I have to."

In Illinois, more than 2 million people receive Social Security. More than 3 million receive Medicaid, and more than 2 million receive Medicare.

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., described during floor remarks how a GOP debt plan would also impact other programs in Illinois: “The Republican proposal would force 13,000 children in our state to lose child care and preschool.  It would strip food assistance from 55,000 women, infants, and children. Does that make any sense at all?  And it would threaten medical care for more than 186,000 veterans in Illinois.  Fifty thousand seniors would lose their meals on wheels in my state.”

What Republicans are telling USA TODAY

McCarthy on Tuesday said it was "a lie" that the GOP proposal would cut veterans' care, and he and other Republicans have recently blamed Biden and Democrats for any risk to Social Security. He maintained Tuesday that House Republicans "are the only ones in Washington who have passed a responsible debt limit increase that avoids default."

That sentiment was echoed by other Republicans on the Hill in the last week.

"The Biden administration might want to look in the mirror and realize they’re the ones threatening a default that would jeopardize these programs. Biden has House Republicans’ solution in front of him – the only bill passed that takes a default off the table and protects Social Security – but he’d rather bankrupt our nation than negotiate," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer's office told USA TODAY.

Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., told USA TODAY in a statement: “President Biden has avoided negotiations on the debt ceiling for more than 90 days – his delay tactics have put our seniors directly in harms way. Republicans worked diligently to pass a plan that addresses our spending crisis and the debt limit, the president needs to take our plan seriously.”

Some Republican senators say they want to see more negotiations.

"I hope the president negotiates. He sold himself to the American people as a negotiator. So, what is negotiation? You’ve got to give and get," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., told USA TODAY before Biden met with congressional leaders.

Capito said she hoped the meeting with the president would be more than a photo opportunity. "It better be substantive," she said. "He better come back with items that he thinks he could live with and that the House would pass."

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said he was hoping for a compromise.

"We certainly want to raise the debt ceiling. At the same time we’d like to deal with the excessive spending and debt burden the country is facing, so let’s get them both dealt with," he said.

A deeper look: Joe Biden boxes Republicans into a corner on Social Security, Medicare with an eye on 2024

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Debt limit fight: Here's how it could impact Social Security checks