Somalia signs security deals amid fears of conflict in Horn of Africa
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Somalia has signed security deals with the United States, Turkey and Uganda in recent weeks as multiplying tensions in the Horn of Africa raise fears of possible armed conflicts in the region.
An agreement signed with Washington commits the U.S. to building five military bases for the Somali army to bolster the counter’s military capacity amid ongoing threats from the extremist group al-Shabab, while a 10-year security deal with Turkey is aimed at strengthening Somalia’s naval force and to help patrol its 2000-mile country’s coastline. Somalia has also signed an agreement to deepen its military collaboration with Uganda.
The deals underscore Mogadishu’s ambitions to bolster its security, as it faces a persistent internal threat from al-Shabab, with peacekeeping forces from the African Union set to pull out in December. Meanwhile, Somalia’s vow to stop an Ethiopian deal to lease a port in the breakaway region of Somaliland has sparked concerns of a conflict with Ethiopia.
SIGNALS
Somalia sees deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland as an ‘act of aggression’
While exact terms of the deal for Somaliland to give Ethiopia commercial and military access to a key Red Sea port are unclear, the fact that it involves recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign country has incensed Somalia. Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway region in northern Somalia, has been de facto independent since 1991, but its claim to sovereignty is not recognized by Moghadishu or any other state. “If Ethiopia continues to pursue that, Somalia has the right to defend itself by whatever means it can,” Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told The New York Times.
For landlocked Ethiopia, however, the deal to secure access to the sea is not a matter of “luxury but of survival,” the Ethiopian news outlet the Addis Standard quoted an official as saying. Currently, Ethiopia relies on Djibouti, with more than 95% of its imports and exports passing via its smaller neighbor’s ports. But using Djibouti’s ports costs Ethiopia $1.5 billion a year in fees, a huge sum for a country that defaulted on its debt in December.
Tensions over port deal may weaken Somalia in its fight against extremist group
If Ethiopia proceeds with the Somaliland port deal, the tensions will likely impact the cooperation between Addis Ababa and Moghadishu on counterterrorism operations against the al-Shabab militant group. Al-Shabab, which seeks to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state in the country, remains a threat despite a year-long, large-scale government offensive to reassert control over parts of Somalia that al-Shabab has seized. The port deal has already prevented military coordination between Ethiopia and Somalia, and al-Shabab has seized on the deal and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment to recruit new fighters, the Critical Threats Project assessed.
Somalia’s efforts to fully liberate its territories from al-Shabab’s control have stalled in recent months due to political infighting, logistical challenges, and politically powerful clans failing to support the offensive, Daisy Muibu of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies wrote for CTC Sentinel, the publication of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
