South Dakota high school football state championship picks, previews for all seven matchups
The closer the games get, the more difficult they become to predict. South Dakota high school football’s state finals are less than a day away, but unlike a few games last year, there aren’t any clear favorites emerging in any particular class.
There is a No. 1 team in every single class title this year, and they all look strong. But, also, a path to a few upsets seems possible. The Argus Leader spoke with coaches around the state to learn more about the teams and matchups in the state final this weekend, combining with Midco Sports to make picks for all seven games.
Here’s what to know about the finals games.
9B: No. 1 Herreid/Selby Area (11-0) vs. No. 2 Hitchcock-Tulare (11-0)
Game time: 11 a.m. Thursday
Neither Herreid/Selby Area nor Hitchcock-Tulare has had much difficulty getting through the teams put ahead of them on their schedule this year. But Patriots head coach Tom Salmen said there’s still things to learn from. Hitchcock-Tulare has had good games, they’ve had bad games.
“Of course, never perfect, but we strive for that,” Salmen said. “Ultimately, it just comes down to how we do in that game, at that time. And it's been going well for us.”
One of the reasons it’s been going well is the Patriots' skill players, which combined with the Wolverines’ own offensive options perhaps make this the most talented group in a 9-man state championship this year. Herreid/Selby Area has an obvious threat in running back Brenden Begeman. 188 yards short of the South Dakota 9-man rushing record, he’ll get the ball. A lot. But no one’s been able to stop him yet. Quarterback Trey Hettick has been strong, too, opening up some passes as well as running the ball himself.
But Hitchcock-Tulare can score with a variety of players. Behind the “foundation” of Jacob Michlitsch, Mikael Nielson and Jackson Maynard on the offensive line, the skill group of quarterback Carter Binger, wide receiver Landon Puffer and running back Erik Salmen are as difficult a group to stop as any. Both hope their defense can hold strong, but it doesn’t look good for either stopping the other’s offense in a potentially high-scoring game.
It'll be interesting to see honestly,” Salmen said. “That's why we got to play the game.”
Argus Leader Sports pick: Herreid/Selby Area
Midco Sports pick: Herreid/Selby Area
More:How Brenden Begeman went from small DB to Herreid/Selby Area's 5,000-yard rusher (and climbing)
9A: No. 1 Warner (11-0) vs. No. 3 Gregory (10-1)
Game time: 7 p.m. Thursday
Gregory head coach Mike Murray said this always felt “realistic.” The Gorillas had a “pretty good team” last year, but didn’t lose a single starter ahead of the 2022 season. They were experienced with team chemistry, and most of all, options. Weapons he isn’t sure how their championship opponent, Warner, will defend.
“I can't tell you who is going to shine or who they're going to try to take away,” Murray said.
They could try to take away running back Kade Stukel’s speed, but then that opens up lanes for running back Owen Hansen, who has 687 yards on the ground, up the middle. If they try to press in the pass game, Gregory can go “over the top” to wide receivers Eli Fogel, Kade Braun, Trey Murray. And, of course, there’s junior quarterback Rylan Peck — a player you need to keep an eye on at all times.All of it makes for a scary combination, but Warner, itself, tries to make things confusing for defenses, too. Monarchs quarterback Hunter Cramer only lines up under center on select plays, instead operating as Warner’s lead running back with over 1,300 yards and 28 touchdowns. Brodey Sauerwein has taken over as the Monarchs’ every-down quarterback aside from the occasional time Warner uses Cramer’s versatility in the run-pass option.
This Warner team didn’t have an easy run to the final, coming across Canistota in the quarterfinal, a team that Warner head coach Kerwin Hoellein said was feeling as good as any heading into a matchup with the Monarchs. Canistota jumped ahead by 17 points at halftime, but Warner only had four possessions in the first half and fumbled once. The Monarchs know: not many teams can stop their offense. That game and every other game thereafter, they just need the ball.
“We have some pretty decent size up front,” Hoellein said. “We can kind of control the line of scrimmage and put some drives together.
Argus Leader Sports pick: Gregory
Midco Sports pick: Warner
9AA: No. 1 Wall (11-0) vs. No. 6 Parkston (10-1)
Game time: 10:30 a.m. Friday
If there’s anyone on the Parkston sideline that felt confident going into the Trojans’ quarterfinal matchup with Howard, head coach Matt Grave said it was the players.
“As a coaching staff, we know that tradition of Howard,” Grave said. “We saw how talented they were on film, and how many talented players they have across the board.”
But the players were sure, which gave them some “peace and calmness.” And the players were right. Parkston, after falling short in the semifinal last season, is a state championship contender again after allowing just 15 total points to the No. 2 and 3 seeds in Class 9AA over the last two rounds of the playoffs. Though it may have been daunting on the front-end, Grave is happy his team has faced the toughest schedule of the playoffs. They were “a play away” from a win over Hanson in the regular-season that would have made them a top team, but now they instead are battle-tested when it matters most.
More:One player to watch on every South Dakota high school football state final team
Wall will be motivated for this one, too, though. It’s their first championship berth since 2011, and the Eagles have been great all season long. They’ve averaged 47.5 points to their opponents’ 5.9, and quarterback Burk Blasius and running back Cedar Amiotte are just a few options Wall has, which rank among the best players in 9-man football. Parkston’s strong playoff defense will be tested.
Argus Leader Sports pick: Wall
Midco Sports pick: Wall
11B: No. 1 Winner (11-0) vs. No. 3 Elk Point-Jefferson (11-0)
Game time: 2:30 p.m. Friday
Winner is seeking to do something incredible Friday. The Warriors, with a win in their championship game this weekend, would win a school-record third-straight title as well as keep adding to the record for consecutive wins (34) that they set in the third game this season. The Warriors have proved themselves. Running backs Riley Orel and Jack Peters as well as fullback Aiden Barfuss create a three-person rushing group behind quarterback Blake Volmer that hasn’t been stopped this year, even against one of the 11A championship teams in West Central.
There wouldn’t be a reason to think the Warriors could lose their crown, if not for a team in Elk Point-Jefferson taking its first trip to the DakotaDome after a season in which they did what Winner has done this year to all of their opponents, too. In their lone close 28-14 win over Bridgewater-Emery/Ethan, head coach Jake Terry said the Huskies left 28 points on the board. But Terry said it was beneficial that the mistakes looked more “glaringly obvious.”
“There's plenty of things we can improve on,” Terry said. “It's always good when you play those good teams.”
EPJ will look to run and running backs Lucas Hueser (837 rushing yards) and Ben Swatek (875 rushing yards) have been dynamic splitting carries this year. But the key player they return to 100% for this game is Chace Fornia, who is a 6-foot-5 presence on the offensive and defensive line. Terry said his defense is not “a slouch,” and that might be an understatement. The Huskies defense has only allowed 80 yards per game this year, 23 of which are rushing yards. This will be a test of Winner’s dominance, for sure, but if the game stays close, who knows what could happen?
“They're very satisfied with getting 4 yards a pop and having a 15-play drive,” Terry said. “Eventually they're going to get a big play, whether it be a big run or a big pass, but our kids have got to be able to respond.”
More:Dell Rapids cruises to win over St. Thomas More to stay undefeated
Argus Leader Sports pick: Winner
Midco Sports pick: Winner
11A: No. 1 Dell Rapids (11-0) vs. No. 2 West Central (10-1)
Game time: 7:30 p.m. Friday
As much as it seemed like this is what the state-championship matchup would be in the middle of the regular season, it was by no means guaranteed. West Central head coach Chris Hernandez said following the Trojans’ 28-3 loss to Winner, West Central needed to reevaluate some things. There are some things they were “forcing,” that weren’t working. The Trojans weren’t calling the offense to quarterback Justin Zirpel. Jesse Yost, a running back averaging 7.1 yards per carry, was getting lost within the flow of game and his touches weren’t where they needed to be.
More:No. 1 West Central, still figuring things out, looks dominant in 33-0 win over Vermillion
The Trojans needed to change, and in the last four games, they have. In those games, Yost has 37 carries for 306 yards and Zirpel is cruising. Neither team felt they had an easy path to the final, but the No. 1 and No. 2 teams all season long still end up with the matchup in the state final. Though the offenses can be explosive on both sides, the game could end up being a defensive battle. Dell Rapids head coach Jordan Huska said the Trojans' defense “makes you work for what you're gonna get” and the offense will perhaps make the Quarriers defense move at a pace faster than they prefer to normally, but they’ll still “do what we do.” Dell Rapids’ group of dynamic weapons in quarterback Jack Henry, running back Mason Stubbe and wide receiver Brayden Pankonen will be dangerous as always.
“It just has to be one of those games where we have to put our defense in good spots,” Hernandez said. “Maybe we have to play some field position, but then we need to come away with points from an offensive standpoint, which is not going to be easy against their defense.”
No matter what, we’ll finally get to see the matchup we’ve all been waiting for in Class 11A.
Argus Leader Sports pick: Dell Rapids
Midco Sports pick: Dell Rapids
11AA: No. 1 Pierre T.F. Riggs (11-0) vs. No. 2 Tea Area (10-1)
Game time: 1 p.m. Saturday
Last season, this was the best game of the state championship weekend at the DakotaDome, ending on a last-second field goal to give the Governors their fifth-straight 11AA title.
More:One number to know for each South Dakota high school football state championship matchup
At the very least, there’s no reason to suggest this game will be any further apart than the regular-season matchup between these two teams. After all, it was just four weeks ago. Not much has changed about either program since then, except maybe they each have a little more momentum under their belt. It’s striking, yardage-wise, how similar these teams can be. The Governors have the best passer in the state and Tea Area almost exclusively runs the ball, yet still it amounts to 400-plus yards of total offense just the same.
Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz will be the best player on the field, as he always is, and wide receiver Jack Merkwan and tight end Jett Zabel will be bringing their best in the receiving game, but the Titans have plenty of options, too. Running backs Chase Van Tol and Blake Thompson are as dynamic a duo there is in South Dakota, and quarterback Maddix Slykhuis has shown some strong ability in the option game. Whoever’s defense stops the other from scoring might be the winner here, but don’t be surprised if this game — like last year — becomes another instant classic.
More:Pierre quarterback Lincoln Kienholz breaks South Dakota all-time passing record
Argus Leader Sports pick: Tea Area
Midco Sports pick: Pierre
11AAA: No. 1 Sioux Falls Jefferson (11-0) vs. No. 3 Harrisburg (9-2)
Game time: 7 p.m. Saturday
Jefferson seems unbeatable right now. The Cavaliers are playing as good as any team in the state, doing to 11AAA opponents what is typically reserved for the occasional lopsided cross-class matchups. Harrisburg head coach Brandon White, after his team ran away from O’Gorman in the semifinal, didn’t yet know who they’d play. But he knew whether it was Lincoln or Jefferson, it would be tough.
But of the two, there have at least been avenues to beat the Patriots. No one has come within 18 points of Jefferson this year. The defensive secondary and linebackers unit can make plays that few in the state can, and the offensive combo of quarterback Taylen Ashley, running back Nelson Wright and wide receiver Griffin Wilde looks too strong to in addition to that.
Harrisburg, certainly, looks different since these two teams last played. Running back Gavin Ross should be a full-go for the game after he suffered an injury early in the first matchup with the Cavaliers that sidelined him for most of the season, and Harrisburg has won nine of its last 10 since that game. Last week, even with Ross back and healthy, a new star emerged in the run game as wide receiver Max Carlson totaled six touchdowns. But the Cavaliers look really, really good right now. It will take a near-perfect performance to beat them, but the Tigers literally did that in a championship game just last year.
Argus Leader Sports pick: Sioux FallsJefferson
Midco Sports pick: Sioux Falls Jefferson
Follow Sioux Falls Argus Leader reporter Michael McCleary on Twitter @mikejmccleary.
This article originally appeared on Sioux Falls Argus Leader: South Dakota high school football championship predictions, previews
