What South Florida’s weather forecast means for Miami’s big race day and the weekend

Mother Nature isn’t done playing golf with Florida. as in golf ball-sized hail, the likes of which battered parts of Palm Beach County and Central Florida this week.

KNOW MORE: See photos, video of destructive hail pounding cars and homes across Florida

Not what you want to hear on a Thursday when 14,000 people are descending on downtown Miami for the Lexus Corporate Run, or with the weekend approaching.

Here’s what meteorologist Larry Kelly of the National Weather Service in Miami has to say about the South Florida forecast for the next few days, into the next workweek.

Thursday Corporate Run forecast

The annual race begins at 6:45 p.m. Thursday, with participants gathering around 5 p.m. and lingering into the early evening after the 3.1-mile run or walk. The daytime temperature will be in the mid- to upper-80s and dip to the mid-70s as many navigate the 5K course and hang out afterward in Bayfront Park.

Kelly and local forecasters including Lissette Gonzalez of CBS News Miami note a marginal risk for some thunderstorms at this time.

“The coverage overall today is going to be less than what it has been the past couple of days,” Kelly says. “

Here’s what we’re looking at, Kelly says:

“For downtown Miami, the rain chances tonight are only about 10 to 20%. Most of the activity should be over inland areas and focusing towards the north Lake [Okeechobee] region and Palm Beach this afternoon. We have to watch one of these showers move back towards the coast late this evening and that’s where that 10 to 20% chance comes from,” Kelly said.

Said Gonzalez: “If a storm develops it has the potential to be strong or severe.” The marginal risk map she posted on Twitter has Miami on the southern fringe but all of Broward and Palm Beach is shaded in the marginal range. As one heads farther north along the coast the risk grows to slight.

So though these chances are lower than earlier this week, the weather service still warns that even at marginal risk, an isolated to scattered thunderstorm could contain strong and gusty winds — up to 60 mph like Wednesday — small hail or hail to golf ball-sized, lightning, and the chance for funnel clouds.

The chance is higher in Palm Beach County than in Miami-Dade, though.

Weekend forecast

Friday: Kelly eyes a higher chance of rain Friday in the Miami and Fort Lauderale areas, at about 40% and 50% chances, respectively. The main concerns, again, will be the stronger thunderstorms that could carry gusty winds and hail.

“The highest coverage is still going to be in the north,” Kelly said.

On Friday afternoon around noon, the weather service issued a weather statement warning of potential half-inch hail and winds of 50 mph in associated thunderstorms for areas from Princeton to Miami Springs and including Coral Gables, Kendall, Cutler Bay, Palmetto Bay and Westchester. The service extended the warning to 1:30 p.m. for areas including Hialeah, Miami Lakes and North Miami to the edge of Aventura.

Saturday: Expect a “similar kind of setup, 40% chance, with the highest chances to our north,” Kelly said. “We’re kind of on the fringe of all the activity where you can get something on the outer edge.”

Sunday: “We do see a front coming through Sunday into Monday, so Sunday the rain chances do go up so the wetter of the two days is going to be Sunday,” he said, forecasting a 60% chance of rain and storms.

“We finally get that front pushing through it looks like sometime Monday morning and a dryer start to next week, with the rain lifting for the start of the next work week,” Kelly said.

There are no weather warnings for the Florida Keys for Thursday into the workweek. Rain or thunderstorm chances are 20% all days, except for Sunday when the forecast calls for 40% showers.

Beach conditions

Though better weather is on the way, with temperatures in the high-80s and lows in the 70s, the weather service’s concerns flip to beach conditions and small craft on the waters.

As the front moves through on Sunday and Monday begins a period of drier air, that front could bring high seas and rip currents, especially to the Palm Beach coastline. But Miami-Dade and Broward won’t be immune to potentially dangerous rip currents.

The high risk for rip currents is already noted for Palm Beach County on Thursday.