Southern Arizona to get new member in US House as Ciscomani, Engel compete for open seat

Former state Sen. Kirsten Engel and businessman Juan Ciscomani are vying to represent Arizona's new 6th Congressional District.

With Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., stepping down in the current 2nd Congressional District, this is Arizona's sole U.S. House race without an incumbent running.

The 6th District includes the edges of Tucson and parts of Pima County, as well as sections of Cochise, Graham, Greenlee and Pinal counties.

Ciscomani is the only Republican running for Congress in Arizona who has not received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. He's also the only Republican congressional candidate who is not a denier of the 2020 presidential election results.

The candidates' top issues

Engel says the district's two most important issues are "abortion access and water." Her campaign has spotlighted a video making the rounds on Twitter of Ciscomani seemingly avoiding a question on his abortion stance.

She said in a written response to a congressional survey sent to all candidates:

"In Congress I would work to codify Roe v. Wade to ensure that the women in my district have access to safe and legal reproductive health care and that the fundamental freedom of women to make their own health care decisions, together with those to whom they confide — their family, their doctor, their faith — is respected. In Congress I will work to address our water needs by ensuring all basin states do their fair share to reduce their reliance on the Colorado River and that we conserve and augment our water resources."

Ciscomani says that the biggest issue facing the district is fentanyl, which he said is a consequence of President Joe Biden's border policies.

"These dangerous drugs are destroying communities and families, and we see crime and homelessness on the rise as a result. These are the most alarming consequences of the Biden administration’s total disregard of border security."

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'That district is going to stay Republican'

Like the 1st and 4th districts, the 6th District's level of competitiveness is up for debate.

The Independent Redistricting Commission, the group which made the new districts, describes the area as "highly competitive,"  with a 2.37% "vote spread" favoring Republicans.

The commission characterizes "vote spread," as "the difference between average Democratic and average Republican votes in nine state elections." The vote spread in "highly competitive" districts is under 4%.

However, the website FiveThirtyEight says the district strongly favors the GOP, voting Republican seven percentage points more than the entire country.

According to FiveThirtyEight polling, the race is not even close. Ciscomani is "clearly favored" to win with a 93 in 100 chance of coming out the victor, compared with Engel's seven in 100 chance of winning, as of Oct. 16.

The Cook Political report, on the other hand, classifies the race as "lean Republican" as of the same date.

According to Chuck Coughlin, president and CEO of the Phoenix-based consulting firm HighGround Inc., the new district has been drawn in such a way that makes it less competitive than the old 2nd District.

"I would expect it to come out as a Republican district. And that district is going to stay Republican," he told The Arizona Republic.

"It's not going to be the swing district that the older Kirkpatrick district was because that old district took up much more of Tucson, much more of southern Tucson and some of the foothills area, so they lost a portion of that district and put in a lot more Republican voters."

The district now includes more southeastern Arizona, which Coughlin says strongly favors the GOP.

Coughlin also says that Ciscomani is a "good candidate" who "enjoys campaigning," and that the former adviser to Gov. Doug Ducey benefits from ties to the Republican administration and from an infusion of dollars from outside Arizona via the National Republican Congressional Committee.

By comparison, Coughlin said state  Rep. Daniel Hernandez, who Engel defeated in the party's primary, was a "more pragmatic" Democratic candidate than the state senator.

The two candidates blame each other for the cancelation of the only televised debate in the race.

In fundraising, Engel has about $1.28 million in total receipts from Jan. 1, 2021, through July 13, 2022, the most recent available date.

Ciscomani has approximately $2.6 million in total receipts from July 1, 2021, through Sept. 30, 2022.

Tara Kavaler is a politics reporter at The Arizona Republic. She can be reached by email at tara.kavaler@arizonarepublic.com or on Twitter @kavalertara. 

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Juan Ciscomani, Kirsten Engel square off in District 6 in Arizona