Southern Tier unemployment rates up in 2023, but signs of improvement exist. What's next
New hires in healthcare and government, plus a continued jobs recovery in retail and leisure, helped the Southern Tier economy stay on track in 2023, according to analysts and business leaders in the region.
Employment in the Southern Tier of New York state remained relatively stable in 2023, while an uptick in the size of the workforce contributed to slightly higher joblessness.
Uniformly, rates were higher in November 2023 than in November 2022 when most regions and counties were at historic unemployment lows as the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic took hold.
Statewide, New York's seasonally-adjusted jobless rate was at 4.3% in November, little changed from October.
The Upstate economy and jobs picture doesn’t get taken in a vacuum. As 2024 dawns, government and business leaders are cognizant that inflation, consumer activity, global conflicts and public policy choices are factors influencing job creation and retention.
"Economic pundits currently believe consumer demand will be softer (in 2024) which may push up the unemployment rate a bit more," said Christian Harris, Southern Tier labor analyst with the state Department of Labor. "As of right now, these experts believe there is a greater chance of a slowdown rather than a recession."
What did the unemployment numbers say in 2023?
The most recent county jobless rates available from the New York State Department of Labor are from November.
Rates from the Southern Tier, Western New York and the Rochester region, include:
Southern Tier Region: 3.6% in November 2023 compared to 3.1% in November 2022
Western New York Region: 4% in November 2023 compared to 3.3% in November 2022
Allegany County: 3.8% in November 2023 compared to 3.6% in November 2022
Broome County: 3.9% compared to 3.3%
Chemung County: 4% compared to 3.4%
Livingston County: 3.4% compared to 2.9%
Schuyler County: 4.1% compared to 3.4%
Steuben County: 3.8% compared to 3.3%
Tioga County: 3.3% compared to 2.8%%
The Steuben County Industrial Development Agency keeps close tabs on monthly jobless rates, said Executive Director James Johnson.
Johnson is cautious about where rates may go this year, but the numbers in 2023 remained solid and significantly lower than pre-COVID, he noted.
"Steuben County is still seeing record unemployment from pre-pandemic levels where we traditionally saw unemployment rates between 5% and 7%," Johnson said. "While certain employment sectors did realize some losses through the year, overall employment was stable."
More workers looking for jobs in 2023
The number of people either working or looking for work increased during the first 11 months of the year, both across the state and regionally.
New York State's labor force gained 13,400 in November, and as a result, the statewide labor force participation rate increased to 61.7% in November 2023, reaching its highest level in more than a decade.
The Southern Tier Labor Force grew by 2.7% (7,500) between November 2022 and November 2023 and the number of people employed increased by 5,800 over that period to a total of 273,400, the Department of Labor said.
“The expanding pool of workers — (both) finding employment and looking for employment — makes the uptick in the unemployment rate a little more palatable,” Harris said.
The region added 600 government jobs over the 12 months — the most of any industry sector, the labor department reported, while private sector jobs fell off by less than 1 percent.
Education and Health Services picked up 400 jobs, while Leisure & Hospitality added 200, after a stronger October that saw hundreds of new positions filled. Leisure & Hospitality was among the industries hit hardest by the pandemic, according to state data and business leaders.
Overall, there were 217,700 private sector jobs and 272,000 nonfarm (private and government) jobs in the region in November.
Worker shortage eases, but several sectors hiring
While the number of workers available still lags behind the available positions, there has been some cooling, regionally and nationally, in job openings.
According to the Washington Post, U.S. job openings dropped substantially from their peak at 12 million in March 2022 down to 8.7 million jobs in October, a sign that employers are no longer on a hiring frenzy.
The data from the Southern Tier is much the same. The Labor Department's Jobs Express, which offers a monthly "snapshot" of job openings, showed 5,800 openings at the beginning of December, down from 8,100 job openings on Dec. 1, 2022.
“Labor demand is still elevated and I’m hopeful these individuals coming into the labor market will relieve some of the need," Harris said.
Even if hiring has plateaued, "That does not mean that we are still not working to skill up and train the next generation workforce," said Stacey Duncan, president of the Greater Binghamton Chamber of Commerce and executive director of the Broome County Industrial Development Agency.
"That goes across the board — healthcare, manufacturing, the service industry, information systems.”
Johnson said the need for workers remains high in health care, trades and transportation, while other sectors are maintaining what they have.
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What will year-end numbers show and the 2024 outlook?
December's unemployment numbers are not due until later this month.
Harris expects the final month of the year to produce similar numbers to the first 11, projecting "unemployment rates for the reminder of the year will likely remain slightly above the historically low year ago levels."
Nationally, November jobs gains were better than expected, with the U.S. Department of Labor reporting that employers added nearly 200,000 workers and the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%.
“We are seeing some growth," Duncan said of Broome County. "We are talking to a number of longstanding manufacturing companies in the area that are looking at sizable growth in the year ahead, and looking at all the investments that are being made by our two major healthcare systems.”
With federal and state regional investments in energy storage, battery technology and the semiconductor industry, the Binghamton area "is poised to be part of those growth opportunities," Duncan said.
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Johnson highlighted gains in several areas of Steuben County, including the dairy processing industry with continued employment increases at the BelGioioso Cheese plant in Campbell and the recent expansion plans at the HP Hood facility in Arkport.
Johnson also expects growth in the craft beverage industry, with several wineries and breweries receiving funding to support business expansion. Expansion projects at manufacturers in Hornell and Bath are expected to create jobs in 2024 as well.
Johnson added, "The completion of projects like LP Building Solutions and the Alstom Car Shell Manufacturing facility will lead to new job growth in manufacturing in 2024."
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This article originally appeared on Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin: What's next for Southern Tier jobs growth in 2024 after stable 2023
