SP&R poll: In Senate race Fetterman holds 'tenuous lead'
Sep. 6—WILKES-BARRE — Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research, a firm profiled in two episodes of CBS's nationally televised Inside Edition Program for its accuracy in presidential battleground polling in 2020, recently released its latest poll in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz.
Many believe the outcome of this race will be consequential to control of the U.S. Senate.
The poll was conducted between Aug. 22 and Aug. 29, with a sample size of 718 likely voters using live telephone agents — the poll's margin of error is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Key highlights of the poll include:
—Fetterman leads, but his margin has shrunk since the last SP&R poll.
Fetterman holds a narrow 5-point (49-44) lead over Oz in the latest poll. This shows a considerable tightening of the race when compared with SP&R's last poll conducted a week before the Pennsylvania primary when Fetterman led Oz in a hypothetical match up by a 51-33 margin. (At the time, Oz had yet to be declared the official winner of the primary over rival David McCormick.)
Nonetheless, Fetterman enjoys a much stronger image with voters than does Oz in the current poll, with Fetterman being viewed more favorably than unfavorably (44-39), while Oz is viewed much more negatively than positively (by a 51-32 margin).
—Fetterman secures his base, while Oz lags with GOP voters
In the latest poll, Fetterman is winning Democrats 87-9, while Oz leads Republicans 78-13, but with 9% of Republicans still sitting on the fence.
In a state where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans by more than 500,000 voters, it's unlikely Oz can win without 9 in 10 Republicans in support.
Among registered Independents, Oz leads Fetterman 50-40.
According to our voter turnout model, Independents will make up approximately 1 in 10 voters at the polls.
By way of reference, the last time a GOP U.S. Senate candidate won an open Senate seat in Pennsylvania was Pat Toomey in 2010 and exit polling after his election showed Toomey won Independents by a sizeable margin.
—Oz leads with constituencies that can swing the election — namely "inflation" voters and senior citizens
Voters say inflation and the economy (57%) and abortion (41%) are the top issues most likely to influence their votes — far outpacing immigration (20%), crime (16%), the environment (21%) or even taxes and spending (33%).
Economy/inflation voters are voting for Oz 52-40, which can be the linchpin to an Oz victory if voters don't believe the economy has improved when November rolls around.
Abortion voters are voting Fetterman 71-25. The abortion issue has the potential to be a galvanizing issue for Democrats since this poll shows little difference between Republicans and Democrats on the issue of who is more enthusiastic about voting.
Oz leads narrowly with voters ages 55-64 years old (45-43) and 65-plus years old (50-47), while Fetterman leads with voters younger than 55. According to our voter turnout model, voters 55 years of age and older may represent nearly 6 in 10 votes cast this November.
Campaign trail highlights
With all the campaigns heating up across Pennsylvania, here are a few items candidates and their supporters are saying about their stance on issues and about their opponents.
Fetterman draws large crowds
Lt. Governor John Fetterman, Democrat candidate for the U.S. Senate, this weekend did back to back campaign rallies in two rural counties in western Pennsylvania, drawing massive crowds at two stops in Venango County and Mercer County.
On Saturday, Fetterman spoke to more than 450 voters at Demstock in Venango, a county Trump won by over 40% in 2020.
On Sunday Fetterman held a rally with 427 supporters in Mercer, a county Trump won by over 25% in 2020.
"Do you think Dr. Oz could get over 400 people out in Mercer County on a Sunday afternoon? Dr. Oz didn't even know that Mercer County existed a year ago," said Fetterman. "I'll always fight for Mercer County. From the start, our campaign motto has been 'Every County, Every Vote.' Mercer County isn't a place many Democrats go to, but that doesn't change our approach. Showing up and competing in places like Mercer and Venango, and all of the other counties in between, is the secret to winning as a Democrat in Pennsylvania."
Since launch, Fetterman said his campaign has emphasized the importance of rural, red counties. Fetterman has visited dozens and dozens of Trump-voting, rural counties over the course of his campaign, and he won every single Pennsylvania county in the primary.
"I cannot recall a time in Pennsylvania when the Democratic nominee was drawing bigger and more enthusiastic crowds in the red counties than the Republican nominee." said Brendan McPhillips, campaign manager for Fetterman. "Dr. Oz has not been able to pull a crowd this big in any county in PA, red or blue. The enthusiasm behind John and this campaign is real, we're seeing it at every single stop. John has something Dr. Oz can't buy with his 10 houses and millions of dollars: real, grassroots support from people across Pennsylvania."
Mastriano releases education
policy plan for Pennsylvania
Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, this week released the key pillars of his plan to reform education and empower parents across the Commonwealth.
"Here is the bottom line: I will fully fund our schools and teachers, protect students, and empower parents," Mastriano said in a statement. "Unlike my opponent, I believe schools should be educating — not indoctrinating — our children. I also believe that parents — not bureaucrats — should have a final say over how we raise our kids.
"As governor, I will empower Pennsylvania parents and end the grotesque practice of brainwashing young students with radical, racist ideologies," Mastriano concluded.
The key provisions of Mastriano's education plan include maintaining current education funding levels, banning Critical Race Theory and Gender Theory studies, expanding school choice, improving teacher recruitment and retention, and much more.
Cartwright releases
public safety record
This week, U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright's campaign said he has voted for billions in annual funding for both local and federal law enforcement and he has the receipts:
$511.7 million in Community Oriented Police Funding
$2.2 billion in state and local law enforcement assistance grants
$61.5 million increase in funding for Violence Against Women Prevention and Prosecution Programs
$674.5 million in funding for the Bureau of Justice Assistance's Edward Byrne Memorial JAG program
$30 million in funding for the Patrick Leahy Bulletproof Vest Partnership
$120 million for initiatives to improve police-community relations
Additionally, the campaign stated that as chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and Science, Cartwright, D-Moosic, has consistently brought federal dollars right here to northeastern Pennsylvania:
$2 million for Lackawanna County initiative to reduce drug, gang activity
$3 million for joint fire, police, public safety station in Moosic
$2.5 million for Luzerne County emergency first responder unit
$3.5 million for Scranton Police Department training and technology upgrades
Cartwright campaign press secretary David Early issued the following statement:
"We expect nothing less from Jim Bognet, a shady D.C. lobbying executive and political operative with a history of lying to the people of northeastern Pennsylvania while asking for our votes. Unlike Congressman Cartwright, Jim Bognet has no background of success to run on so he's clearly resorting to his old playbook of flat-out lies. Our community deserves a representative who truly stands for public safety — and one who tells them the truth and that is why they will send Matt Cartwright back to Congress."
DCCC says Bognet lies
about abortion position
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this week said Republican 8th District candidate Jim Bognet has supported abortion bill with no exceptions to gain SBA List endorsement and is aligned with extremist Doug Mastriano on abortion — "now he's walking it back."
The DCCC went on to say:
"High school kicker, D.C. lobbying executive, and failed GOP candidate Jim Bognet lied about his position on abortion this weekend. This comes just days after being exposed for scrubbing and toning down Trump connections on his website."
The DCCC continues: "So let's set the record straight. Jim Bognet opposes abortion rights with no exceptions for cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is in danger."
The DCCC adds that "Bognet says he is 'united' with GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, who has said banning abortion was his 'number one issue' and wants to prohibit abortion with no "exceptions for rape, incest, or a parent's life being in danger during pregnancy" and impose "criminal penalties for doctors and nurses who perform abortions."
Reach Bill O'Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.
