Speaker math: Breaking down how many votes Jordan needs

House GOP Speaker nominee Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) heads to the House floor at noon Tuesday for a House-wide floor election.

While momentum is in his favor, he is not yet assured to win on the House floor.

Here is how the process works and what he needs to win.

Jordan needs a majority of all members present and voting for a specific candidate in order to win the GOP nomination.

There are two vacancies in the House right now, due to resignations of one Republican (Chris Stewart of Utah) and one Democrat (David Cicilline of Rhode Island), making a total of 433 members. House Republicans have 221 members, while Democrats have 212.

That means a majority of the House right now is 217 members — the number often referenced as what Jordan needs to win the Speakership.

All voting Democrats are expected to vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) for Speaker.

So, if more than four of the 221 Republicans defect from Jordan, he is below 217 and in hot water.

However, 217 is not the end-all-be-all magic number to win the Speakership. Members who are absent or vote “present” lower the threshold needed to win, since the winner is decided by all members voting for a specific candidate.

That is how ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) won the Speakership on his 15th ballot in January with 216 votes; six “present” votes from Republicans lowered the threshold needed to win, even though a majority of the whole House was 218.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) won the Speakership with 216 in 2021, too, as did former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) in 2015.

Because of the slim margins, Democrats have urged full attendance for all members, since their absences can affect the margins that Republicans need, too.

To find the “magic number” needed to win the Speakership if there are present votes and absences, take 433 and subtract the number of present votes and absences. Divide that number by two — and then count up to the next whole number.

But Jordan does not necessarily want to count on absences and “present” votes to win. And leaving a House GOP conference meeting Monday evening, he had more than four members publicly opposed to him.

Some of those members said they would vote for McCarthy, or even House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) — who won the GOP nomination for Speaker last week but ultimately withdrew his name for the post one day later amid intense opposition from Jordan’s supporters.

• Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said he is “opposed” to Jordan, but not “never, never.”

• Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) said he is planning to vote for Scalise.

• Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (R-Fla.) is voting for McCarthy.

• Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is planning to vote for McCarthy.

• Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) is planning to vote for Scalise on at least the first ballot.

• Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) said “I am a no” on Jordan “right now,” but they were set to meet Monday night.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), meanwhile, said she will withhold her support from Jordan if he is short of 217 votes needed to clinch the gavel on the House floor, and may vote present.

In addition, Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.) – a Jordan supporter – will be absent for at least the first vote, due to a funeral.

Earlier Monday, Jordan got some major momentum when several Republicans who had indicated Friday they were strongly against him for Speaker flipped to endorse him. Those included House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (Ala.), along with Reps. Ann Wagner (Mo.), Ken Calvert (Calif.) and Vern Buchanan (Fla.). And Tuesday, Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who had been waiting to announce his decision, said he would vote for Jordan on the House floor.

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