The Spin: Lightfoot’s budget will make more speeders pay | Is it OK to trust the polls in presidential race this time? | Griffin blasts Pritzker’s ‘fair tax’ in staff email
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Polls show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in key swing states. But after what happened in 2016, when the numbers were pointing to a Hillary Clinton win, can they be trusted? The Tribune’s Bill Ruthhart examines the question “Are the polls trustworthy?” and what’s different this time.
Billionaire Ken Griffin sent his staff an email yesterday slamming Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker as “a shameless master of personal tax avoidance” and criticizing the governor’s push for a graduated-rate income tax amendment on the Nov. 3 ballot. The Tribune’s Rick Pearson has the scoop on the latest chapter of Illinois’ dueling billionaires.
In a new campaign ad airing in Illinois, former President Barack Obama says, “Hey, everybody. I just wanted to let you know how proud I am to cast my ballot for my friend, Dick Durbin, for U.S. Senate.”
Indeed Chicago election board records confirm the former president and former first lady Michelle Obama are registered to vote here using the address of the South Side home they still own. The Obamas also own a home in Washington, D.C., where they have resided since he exited the White House in 2017.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s new business restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 cases kick in today, but White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx was in town and cautions that closing public spaces may not stop the illness’ spread.
The short of it? People have taken their outdoor gatherings of friends and family inside, where the virus thrives — something the mayor and the city’s top public health official have, indeed, agreed is a huge issue.
And we already know Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s budget proposal calls for hiking the gas tax. But my Tribune colleagues report she’s also looking at pressing the pedal to the metal on ticketing speeders.
Welcome to The Spin.
Can we trust the polls in the presidential race this time?
The Tribune’s Bill Ruthhart writes: "On Election Day 2016, the polls showed Hillary Clinton with a nearly 4 percentage point lead in Michigan and a 6-point lead in Wisconsin, but Republican Donald Trump would go on to win both states by less than 1 point.
A little more than a week out from this year’s election, the polls are offering a similar narrative with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of Trump.
Republicans and Democrats are waving off the polls this time around, even as one expert dug around and found some of the problems with 2016 polling and worked to correct it. Read the full story here.
Just like 2016, pre-election polls are suggesting a Trump defeat — that’s why some Democrats are worried — Tribune columnist Eric Zorn writes in a recent piece that “Biden’s average polling lead today is smaller than Clinton’s was at a similar (mid-October) point in 2016 in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio.” And she lost all of those key battleground states. Read his full take, which acknowledges the role of the Electoral College, here.
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Billionaires brawl: Griffin sends email to Chicago employees blasting Pritzker, graduated income tax
In the campaign’s final stretch, the battle of the billionaires is getting heated. On the one side is Pritzker, an heir to the Hyatt Hotel fortune, who’s pushing a constitutional amendment on the ballot to change the state’s flat-rate income tax system to one that increases by income. On the other is Griffin, reportedly the wealthiest man in the state, who argues it will push corporations to states with friendlier tax policies.
Here’s a little more from the email Griffin sent to Citadel employees, suggesting Pritzker doesn’t pay his fair share: “I am not willing to stand by as, once again, spineless politicians try to sell a trick disguised as a solution. Particularly not from a governor who, having inherited a great deal of wealth, has worked so diligently to avoid paying taxes himself,” Griffin wrote in an email obtained by the Tribune that was verified by a company spokesman. Griffin revisits Pritzker’s “toiletgate” controversy too. Read the full story here.
Quentin Fulks, chairman of the Pritzker-backed Vote Yes for Fairness pro-amendment group, suggests this is all sour grapes, pointing to Griffin backing former Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, who lost his reelection bid to Pritzker.
The two men have donated millions in support of their opposing campaigns.
Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich to Black Trump supporters: “I’m one of your homies” - Tom Schuba has the story in the Sun-Times here.
Bitter Illinois Supreme Court contest shatters fundraising record, includes Griffin donation: The Tribune’s Ray Long has an update on Democratic Illinois Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride’s bid to retain his seat in the November election. Long notes that the “retention fight is a continuation of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and Democratic special interests battling wealthy Republicans who backed Rauner’s anti-union, pro-business agenda.” Among those Rauner backers was Griffin, who at this point has given the biggest donation to defeat Kilbride. Read more here.
In this election, Illinois' senior U.S senator, Durbin, a four-term Democrat has blasted the president for a seeming laissez faire approach to fighting COVID-19, is facing two top opponents stressing their religious faith and questioning strict COVID-19-related shutdown orders enacted by Democratic leaders in Illinois, The Tribune’s Pearson writes.
“Republican Mark Curran, a former Democrat-turned-Republican ex-Lake County sheriff, points to his Catholic faith in opposing abortion and supporting immigration rights, as well as in his outspoken disapproval of state restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19,” Pearson notes.
Then there is third-party candidate Willie Wilson, a wealthy businessman who has paid the fines for a few churches that violated pandemic gathering orders.
Wilson is the unknown factor in the race: “The son of sharecroppers who rose from janitor at a McDonald’s to own several franchises before entering the food- and medical-supply business, Wilson, his gospel orchestra, his singing and his cash giveaways are most well-known in the Black community." He received about 50,000 votes in each of his bids for Chicago mayor, good for almost 11% of the ballots cast, in finishing in third place in 2015 and in fourth place in 2019.” Read the full story here.
As COVID-19 cases spike here and across the U.S., Dr. Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator who in the early days was a fixture at the president’s pandemic news briefings but who has all but disappeared from national view, was in town yesterday to meet with leaders of local hospitals.
Her view on the surge, response: Asked about renewed restrictions in Chicago on bars and other businesses, Birx said: “It won’t be as simple as closing public spaces because public spaces … were very safe over the summer and probably remain safe,” Birx said. “This is really something that has happened in the last three to four weeks. What has happened in the last three to four weeks is that people have moved their social gatherings indoors.” The Tribune’s Lisa Schencker has the full story, including Birx’s diplomatic response to a question about getting the president to wear a mask, here.
Mayor Lightfoot and Chicago Public Department of Health Director, Dr. Allison Arwady, say contact tracing here shows that family and friend gatherings in residences have been linked to the surge; as such, the city is recommending a cap on the number of people gathering at residences.
Gov. Pritzker has cautioned that there are reams of evidence statewide linking bars and restaurants to the spread of the virus.
State’s top health makes emotional plea to residents to ‘fight the fatigue’ as half of Illinois' 102 counties now at ‘warning level’ for coronavirus resurgence: The Tribune’s Jamie Munks has the story, here.
Data points: Today, the state is reporting 3,874 newly diagnosed cases and 31 additional deaths: The seven-day statewide test positivity rate ticked down slightly to 5.6%, from 5.7% a day earlier, Munks writes.
Related: CTA faces $375 million budget shortfall as ridership still down a million people per day — “While there are no plans to reduce service or increase fares as it enters 2021, the CTA has baked the deficit — and anticipated federal relief — into its proposed $1.64 billion operating budget,” which was announced yesterday, the Tribune’s Robert Channick writes here.
Lightfoot’s 2021 budget hits the gas on speeding fines
From the Tribune’s John Byrne and Gregory Pratt: Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who campaigned on a pledge to end Chicago’s “addiction” to fines and fees, is counting on a big increase in city collections from speeding tickets and other violations to balance her 2021 budget.
And to help boost the bottom line, she wants speed cameras across Chicago to start issuing speeding tickets to drivers caught going as little as 6 mph over the posted limit.
Under the mayor’s proposal as part of her 2021 budget package, anyone caught by a camera driving from 6 to 9 mph over the limit would get a $35 ticket in the mail, after getting a warning for the first such violation. Read the story here.
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