The Spin: Preview of Biden,Trump’s first debate | Trump should expect tax questions | Lightfoot eases COVID-19 restrictions on bars, salons starting Thursday
We’re little more than 24 hours before Republican President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden square off in the first debate of the 2020 general election season, and political junkies are waiting to see the display.
While debates of yore might have given a candidate a leg up, today’s politically divided climate means the debate stands as a tradition rather than a chance to change the race’s direction, one expert says.
The debate will be moderated by Fox News’ Chris Wallace. Trump likely will face some grilling over The New York Times story about his taxes and financial woes, and his COVID-19 response. And while Trump says Wallace won’t hold his opponent’s feet to the fire, Biden may face tough questions too.
Trump over the weekend officially introduced Amy Coney Barrett as his nominee to replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. And while some Democratic members of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee — which does the heavy lifting in terms of vetting and interviewing Barrett — have said they won’t meet with her, Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin says he will.
A former ComEd executive is scheduled to plead guilty tomorrow in a bribery conspiracy case alleging he helped arrange payments to allies of Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan to influence legislation in Springfield, the Tribune’s Jason Meisner reports.
It comes the same day a current ComEd exec is slated to testify at a special legislative committee convened to examine what, if any, role Madigan played in the scheme. Madigan has not been accused of any wrongdoing.
Welcome to The Spin.
What to expect from Trump, Biden in their first debate
How to watch: The 90-minute debate tomorrow will get underway at 8 p.m. Chicago time. Details on how to watch, stream here.
When the two meet for their first debate tomorrow night, expect Biden to go heavy on policy positions. President Trump, meanwhile, likely will alternate between attacking Biden and touting his accomplishments during his first term in the Oval Office.
The former vice president might be able to sway undecided voters — and maybe even plant the seeds of doubt among Trump’s working class backers – if he capitalizes on a New York Times report that, among other things, found the president paid just $750 in federal income taxes the year he was elected and his first year in office, says Constance Mixon, an associate professor of political science at Elmhurst College.
“It opens the door right up for Joe Biden — I mean he ought to be able to tee this up and hit it out of the park that Trump hasn’t released his tax returns, and at least the information that the New York Times is reporting (is showing) he’s only paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 (and) 2017 and very little, over the past 10 to 15 years,” even as he likes to talk about how wealthy he is, Mixon said. “He (Biden) needs to drive home with blue collar workers, ‘OK we’re certainly paying a heck of a lot more than that, every year.’”
The Times report also lays out that Trump has $421 million in loans and debt that would be due in his second term, should he win. But for voters, questions about national security may come in to play, said Alvin Tillery, an associate professor of political science and director of the Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy at Northwestern University. Tillery said it’s unclear who that money is owed to and if the president could be vulnerable to outside influences.
Expect Trump to invoke his “fake news” refrain, Mixon tells The Spin. While some experts say it’s a tired response, others suggest he’s had some success if for no other reason than he’s consistent.
Holding a lead at this point in many of the big polls “I think Biden is in a really strong position and what he needs to do is just essentially hold the footfall – make no major gaffes, continue to present himself as a compassionate expansive heart, someone who wants to help the American people in these hard times,” Tillery said. And as a means of both reminding Democrats and bringing them together, Biden also should reinforce he’s the moderate that party regulars want and need right now.
Tillery says that in a deeply divided nation, presidential debates today feel like a relic from an age when a registered Republican might hear out a Democratic candidate and vice versa.
“They’re there, they’re just rituals — but you know there have been times in American history where the electorate wasn’t so polarized where these faceoffs mattered — so you know (the-Republican presidential candidate Ronald) Reagan looking into the camera in 1980 and saying, ‘Can you honestly say that you’re better off today than you were four years ago?’ You know, he won the presidential election on that,” Tillery tells The Spin.
Mixon says candidates in these televised debates have a chance to go after undecided “low-information voters” – the phrase academics use to describe those who are not absorbing every detail of a campaign and may be influenced by soundbites that make their way to social media.
“They don’t pay a lot of attention to what’s happening in the political world and they’re very susceptible to messaging. So they may hear tidbits here and there from the debate — and kind of formulate from there where they’ll go. Social media has been very effective with this population in influencing them one way or the other because many times that’s where they’re getting their news.”
“Black Chicago for Trump” to hold fundraiser in Bucktown on Friday: The invite bills the event, a fish fry, as a chance “to meet fellow Black patriots in Chicagoland who support our beloved president!” The $50-per-person event includes appearances by conservative radio personality Stephanie Trussell and disgraced former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, whose prison sentence was commuted Trump. A spokesman for Blagojevich - once a Democrat but now a self-described Trumpocrat - says the ex-governor will be there but won’t be speaking. More on the event here. H/T to my colleague Alice Yin for spotting.
Thousands of Trump supporters attend rally Sunday at Kane County Fairgrounds: The Kane County Chronicle has the story here.
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Lightfoot on Trump’s taxing question
The Tribune’s Gregory Pratt writes: Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said President Donald Trump owes the public an apology if a New York Times investigation detailing his federal tax history is true.
“For someone to use every act possible not to pay his fair share and then act like he’s this incredibly successful businessman, disappointing’s not the right word. It’s extraordinarily troubling to me and, obviously, the IRS is all over this because if the reporting is correct, they’ve been in a 10-year fight with this guy over auditing his taxes,” Lightfoot said at an unrelated news conference. “He needs to come clean, he needs to take ownership, and frankly if the reporting is true, he needs to apologize.”
Lightfoot, a Democrat who’s endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden against Trump, said she’s “deeply disturbed” by the reporting’s findings, which suggest Trump used “every trick in the book” to avoid paying his fair share. Read the rest of the story here.
Trump isn’t the only president who has meddled in sports: He demanded, then took credit for, Big 10 football’s plan to return to the gridiron amid the pandemic. He bashed NFL players for taking a knee in the name of social justice during the national anthem. But President Donald Trump isn’t the only one who’s stuck his nose in the business of sports. From Teddy Roosevelt to Nixon, Clinton and Obama, the Tribune’s Shannon Ryan takes a look at how they tried to inject themselves into the games. Read the story here.
The Tribune’s Dan Petrella and Jamie Munks write: “After winning a slew of suburban state legislative seats long held by Republicans in 2018, Illinois Democrats are looking to expand their reach even further in November as renewed controversy swirls around their powerful leader, longtime House Speaker Michael Madigan.
“Republicans for years have built their campaign strategy around vilifying Madigan, who has been speaker for all but two years since 1983, but it hasn’t paid off in a big way at the ballot box. This year, however, the GOP hopes its anti-Madigan message will resonate in a new way” because of the alleged bribery scheme.
Trump factor: “But Madigan, who has not been charged and has denied wrongdoing, is only on the ballot in his Southwest Side district, and Democrats are hoping to capitalize on a changing suburban electorate’s dissatisfaction with the name at the top of the Republican ticket: President Donald Trump,” Petrella and Munks note.
Data points: “All 118 Illinois House seats and 22 of 59 state Senate seats are on the ballot this fall. But because 52 House and 11 Senate races are uncontested, a handful of competitive districts — largely in the suburbs — will determine whether Democrats lose or add to their veto-proof majorities in both chambers,” Petrella and Munks write. “Democrats hold supermajorities of 74-44 in the House and 40-19 in the Senate, meaning Republicans would need a historic number of victories to take control of either chamber.”
The money: “The Democrats not only control both chambers of the General Assembly and all statewide offices, but they also enjoy an overwhelming advantage in campaign cash.” Read the full story, including how much each party has banked, yet another sign of who holds the power.
From the Tribune’s Jason Meisner: "A former ComEd executive is scheduled to plead guilty this week in a bribery conspiracy case alleging he helped arrange payments to allies of powerful Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan to influence legislation in Springfield.
“Fidel Marquez, a longtime lobbyist and former senior vice president of governmental affairs at ComEd, is so far the only person charged in what the utility has admitted in court was a yearslong scheme to win Madigan’s support.”
Marquez is expected to plead guilty before a federal magistrate tomorrow as a current executive testifies before a special House committee investigating Madigan’s conduct in the alleged scheme. Read the full story here.
A reminder that Madigan, who has not been charged and denies any wrongdoing, last week declined an invitation to testify before the bipartisan committee, calling the hearings a “politically motivated stunt.”
Mayor Lori Lightfoot easing Chicago restrictions on indoor bars, restaurants, fitness classes
From the Tribune’s Gregory Pratt and John Byrne: Chicago bars that don’t serve food will be allowed to reopen for indoor service starting Thursday, and bars and restaurants will be allowed to serve alcohol until 1 a.m., Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced today.
In addition, Lightfoot said the city will now allow shaves, facials and other personal services that previously were banned because they required the removal of face masks. The city also will increase the maximum group size for health and fitness classes and after-school programming from 10 to 15 people, officials said. The rest of the story is here.
Wiggle room? According to Lightfoot’s plan, Chicago won’t move on to phase five until there’s a coronavirus vaccine. But she left herself a lot of room to continue to “turn up the dimmer switch” on a return to normal within phase four.
Lightfoot: ‘We’re not there yet’ on in-person CPS learning - The mayor today said “she would love to let students back into Chicago public schools in November, but wouldn’t commit to allow in-person learning this fall,” the Tribune’s John Byrne writes. Read the full story here.
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