‘That split is decisive’: Abortion amendment fails — with unexpected help from rural Kansas voters

HOLTON — On paper, it should have been clear which way Pamela Martinson would vote Tuesday on the proposed Value Them Both amendment to the Kansas Constitution.

A Catholic farm wife in a deeply conservative area, observers expected voters like her to spearhead support for the proposed amendment, which would have done away with state-level abortion rights protections.

Only that wasn't the case at all — Martinson voted against Value Them Both, as did many of her fellow residents of Brown County, where 44% of voters opposed it. That was well above the 25% who voted for President Joe Biden in that county in 2020.

In Jackson County, where Martinson ate lunch Wednesday in a Holton restaurant, the result was even more stunning: 52% of voters rejected the amendment. In comparison, 29% voted for Biden in that county in 2020.

'We'll vote as we choose'

"Women have rights," Martinson said as she explained her stance between bites from a plump, loaded baked potato at Trails Cafe. "It's nice to know we still do.

"It's very simple," she added. "Being Catholic, I don't believe in abortion for myself. But I feel women have a right to decide what happens to their bodies."

Martinson recalled how she felt no pressure at church but received a barrage of calls from amendment supporters.

"It became very annoying," she said. "Get a grip, people. We'll vote as we choose."

'It is nice to have something positive come out of Kansas for a change'

Republicans in Kansas usually rely on eye-popping margins in rural areas like Jackson County to offset expected losses in Douglas County, which includes Lawrence, the Kansas City metropolitan area and, potentially, Wichita.

But on the constitutional amendment, those margins were either muted or completely non-existent.

In Osage County, 71% of voters supported former President Donald Trump in 2020. On Tuesday night, the "no" vote won with 56% of the vote on Value Them Both.

Such stories were common across Kansas.

All-in-all, 19 counties supported the "no" side. The last time a left-leaning candidate came close to carrying that many counties in a statewide race came when former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius won re-election in 2006.

The result surprised former Senate President Stephen Morris, a moderate Republican from Hugoton who has backed Democrats in recent statewide elections. Morris noted that he saw zero "no" signs in his rural swath of far southwest Kansas.

But the end result, he said, was heartening.

"The results of that election have nationwide implications," he said. "It is nice to have something positive come out of Kansas for a change."

'I think people were uninformed and they believed the commercials'

Anti-abortion groups have argued voters were misled about the contents of the amendment and swayed by advertisements to believe a ban on abortion would be forthcoming if the measure were to pass, even as lawmakers were mum on their plans for potential future restrictions.

This has resonated with some voters.

At Boomers' Steakhouse & Grill in Holton, Mitchell Nicol said he felt surprised that the ballot question had been defeated.

Nicol voted "yes" on the amendment, as did most of his friends, leading him to be even more taken aback by the results in Jackson County.

"I think people were uninformed, and they believed the commercials that said Value Them Both was going to stop all abortions," Nicol said. "That's why I think it went that way.

"People didn't do the research and see what the true legislation was. That's my opinion."

'I was utterly gobsmacked' at turnout

Even voters from left-leaning parts of the state felt surprised to be joined in voting "no" by their traditionally conservative counterparts.

Cindy Koester, a Holton native and Lawrence resident, grabbed lunch with Holton friends Wednesday at that city's Cockeyed Pig Dive Bar and Grill, where talk turned to the amendment's outcome.

"I knew Lawrence would pass it overwhelmingly, but I didn't think the rest of the state would," she said.

The simplest explanation offered by observers is that the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade energized voters, leading to spikes in voter registration in many urban counties and sky-high turnout in those communities.

Historically conservative Finney County saw roughly a third of registered voters turn out in Tuesday's election, which was a dip in turnout from the 2018 election.

In contrast, Johnson County turnout for this year's primary was well over 50% — a level that was unprecedented.

"I was utterly gobsmacked," said Patrick Miller, a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.

Chuck Weber, executive director of the Kansas Catholic Conference, said the U.S. Supreme Court decision created a "hysteria."

"It just washed over into the Kansas campaign, and just created a tsunami of misinformation that we were just unable to overcome," he said.

Politically purple

But others said the trend of younger, often female voters heading to the polls extended to more sparsely populated areas.

Organizers for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, the largest group opposing the amendment, said those voters, combined with a coalition of independent and Republican voters, shifted the narrative in rural areas.

"We made sure that we were talking to voters across the state," Rachel Sweet, campaign manager for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, told reporters in a conference call Wednesday.

Abortion-rights protests in Chanute, Hays, Dodge City and Garden City drew dozens of protesters. And Sen. John Doll, R-Garden City, said those people put their money where their mouths were by voting.

"A lot of those people are (politically) purple," Doll said, using a term that describes a mix of red and blue.

'Too timid for many pro-life voters'

Conversely, it has been suggested the constitutional amendment did not actually go far enough to energize conservative voters.

That sentiment was espoused by a smattering of intensely anti-abortion activists and groups during the campaign.

They wanted lawmakers to put a straight abortion ban on the ballot for voters to weigh in on and were unhappy with giving legislators leeway on what option to pursue next.

Matt Schlapp, president of the Conservative Political Action Conference and a Wichita native, called the election result a "blip" but said the approach was still wrongheaded.

"Its biggest problem was it was too timid for many pro-life voters," Schlapp said in a social media post Wednesday morning. "It was not a heartbeat bill it was a late-term ban along (with) other basic regulations."

Viola Heskett, an Emporia anti-abortion activist who campaigned in support of the amendment, said she heard similar arguments, particularly on social media.

"I felt like that that was an unfortunate approach," she said.

'They just want less government'

Weber, the executive director of the Kansas Catholic Conference, in September told a Catholic group in Wichita that turnout in rural, heavily Catholic communities would be paramount to ensuring the amendment's passage.

"Our research shows that if we don’t get a big, big push in western Kansas in the rural areas, we’re going to lose this thing – our polling is very tight," he said at the time.

But anti-abortion groups have since rejected the assertion that they didn't do enough to campaign and energize turnout in those areas.

"I think it was a pretty good effort on our part across the board in terms of splitting the urban and rural," Weber said Wednesday.

Doll, the state senator from Garden City, agreed.

He noted his house was frequently targeted by door knockers and that area Catholic churches displayed signs and held events in support of the amendment, as they had across the state.

But that didn't necessarily mean that voters who identified as being "pro-life" were going to support the amendment, he added.

"We're an independent spirit out here," Doll said. "And they don't want government involved in their lives, whether it be abortion, guns, anything. They just want less government. And I think that had a lot to do with it."

'Silent majority' want government to leave them alone

Many voters Tuesday embodied that most Kansan of mindsets: that the government should leave them alone.

"I think that deep down, middle America prefers to make those types of decisions for themselves rather than leave it up to the state or federal government to decide," said Kim Clements, a Hoyt resident, on Wednesday.

Clements described herself as being part of the "silent majority" who share that opinion.

"We don't all put signs in our yards, but we're pretty clear on what we want," she said.

Abortion-rights groups seemed to target that bloc of Kansans, with TV ads that equated the amendment vote to government mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some voters call ballot language confusing

Other voters said they were simply confused by the language of the ballot question.

That language was lengthy. Even those who ultimately voted in favor of it said they had to think twice before pulling the lever — and that this frustration tainted their impression of the broader cause.

"Even after reading the ballot, I think people could still be confused about how they're voting," Topekan Peggy Hardesty said after casting her ballot Tuesday.

In Greenwood County, "no" votes Tuesday outnumbered "yes" votes 963 to 959, despite Trump's having carried that county by 61 percentage points two years ago, getting 79.4% of the vote compared to 18.5% for Biden.

Greenwood County Republican Party Chair Carol Flock said the amendment's defeat marked a "sad day" for Kansas.

But she added that she understood why voters had been confused by the question, and said elected officials could have done more to make it clearer for them.

"If I hadn't known what it was all about, I would have probably voted 'no' the way the ballot read," Stock said.

‘I think Republicans have taken a lot of these places for granted’

Experts don't see Tuesday's results as being a sign that rural Kansas counties have shifted markedly to the left.

They note that in a more traditional race, such as the Nov. 8 governor's race between incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly and Republican challenger and Attorney General Derek Schmidt, a whole batch of other issues come into play to shape a person's vote.

"No one should be fooled into thinking that those voters have now become Democrats, or that they've now become liberals," said Miller, the KU professor. "But they were given the opportunity to express their opinion on one issue, and they did."

Still, Christopher Reeves, a former Democratic National Committee committeeman, said the outcome of Tuesday's vote was a wake-up call for Republicans in rural Kansas.

"I think Republicans have taken a lot of these places for granted," he said.

Doll said he wasn't quite so sure — but he did spotlight how markedly the state's political climate has changed since Kelly defeated Kris Kobach, a conservative former Secretary of State, in the 2018 governor's race.

Both parties have increasingly poured more resources into targeting Wichita and suburban Johnson County.

Republican Party's 'shade has changed'

Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors have changed what it means to be a Kansas conservative. Doll acknowledged that many voters in his district have evolved.

But others, he said, consider themselves to be more in the mold of former Republican Presidents Ronald Reagan or Dwight D. Eisenhower. While many assume that wing of the party is dying off, he said it remains alive and well — with the impact felt on Tuesday.

"The Republican Party, you know, its shade has changed," Doll said. "And so I think there's a lot of people that are still soft red, but not hard red. And that split is decisive."

'I prefer integrity in the process'

The nuance of the issue was driven home by voters like Bill Riley.

Visiting Oskaloosa on Wednesday, the Manhattan resident called himself a "conservative Republican."

While he expressed frustration with the campaigning of both sides in the run-up to the vote, Riley said he found it disingenuous that amendment supporters contended they wouldn't pursue a ban on abortion if the measure passed.

"I think that there are too many reasons abortion is necessary and appropriate, and they're not giving any credit to that," he said.

Riley ultimately voted "no" on the amendment — another voter who defied long-held assumptions about the Sunflower State as the land of yellow brick roads and ruby red election outcomes.

"I think the way the Republicans are conducting themselves is embarrassing," he said regarding Value Them Both. "I prefer integrity in the process."

Andrew Bahl is a senior statehouse reporter for The Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached at abahl@gannett.com or by phone at 443-979-6100.

Tim Hrenchir is trending news reporter for The Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached at threnchir@gannett.com or by phone at 785-213-5934.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas abortion amendment rejected with help from rural voters