A look back at Jimmy Butler’s fifth season with Heat and a look ahead at looming extension question

While Jimmy Butler’s request for a max extension this offseason has created some uncertainty surrounding his future with the Miami Heat, there’s no denying how important he is to the team’s success.

“Who moves the needle the most on our team is Jimmy,” Heat president Pat Riley said last week during his season-ending news conference. “Jimmy moves the needle the most. He’s an incredible player.”

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But with league sources indicating that Butler and his camp will push for a maximum two-year contract extension worth about $113 million this offseason, the Heat’s decision on whether to grant his request will reveal whether the organization feels like Butler can still be a max-level player in the coming years as his 35th birthday approaches on Sept. 14.

This two-year max extension would include salaries of $54.3 million for the 2025-26 season (nearly a $2 million increase from the player option that it would replace in Butler’s current contract for that season) and $58.6 million for the 2026-2027 season when Butler will be 37 years old. He’s already under contract with the Heat on a $48.8 million salary for next season.

So essentially, Butler will be asking the Heat to replace the two years and $101.2 million remaining on his contract (should he exercise the 2025-26 player option) with a three-year commitment worth $161.7 million.

Riley was noncommittal last week when asked if the Heat would give Butler that extension this offseason, with the window to sign it opening July 7. The Heat will then have until June 30, 2025, to sign Butler to this two-year max extension.

“We don’t have to do that for a year. So we have not discussed that internally right now,” Riley said. “But we have to look at that, making that kind of commitment and when do we do it. We don’t have to do it until 2025, actually. But we’ll see. We haven’t made a decision on it, and we really haven’t in earnest discussed it. So we’ll just see what happens.”

One trend that might have the Heat hesitant to make that type of investment in Butler at this point of his career is the fact that he has missed 20 or more regular-season games in three of the past four seasons. That’s a trend that is hard to reverse for a player in his mid-30s.

Butler’s production was also down across the board from last regular season, averaging fewer points, rebounds, assists and steals per game this regular season.

Another troublesome number for Butler from this season: Not only was Butler’s shot volume at the rim down, but he also shot 63.9 percent at the rim (45th percentile among NBA forwards) this regular season compared to 68 percent at the rim last regular season.

The extension would also pay Butler nearly $60 million when he’s 37 and likely erase any chances the Heat has of entering the 2026 offseason with max cap space.

“That’s something that we have to give some real thought to based on a lot of factors,” Riley said of the Heat’s looming decision on Butler’s extension. “I don’t want to go through the litany of factors right now because they all blow up into different hypotheticals. But yeah, that’s a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources unless you’re somebody who’s really going to be there, available every single night. That’s the truth.”

But the truth also is that Butler is still one of the NBA’s premier players when available and has been the driving force behind one of the most successful eras in franchise history. While still looking for his first NBA championship, Butler has helped lead the Heat to three Eastern Conference finals appearances and two NBA Finals appearances in his first five seasons with the organization.

Despite missing 22 regular-season games, the advanced metrics still say that Butler was the Heat’s best player this season. He led the Heat in these categories:

▪ Estimated plus-minus (estimated impact per 100 possessions)

▪ Estimated wins (estimated wins contributed based on estimated plus-minus and minutes played)

▪ Player efficiency rating (a measure of per-minute production)

▪ Win shares (an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player)

▪ Box plus/minus (a box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player)

▪ Value over replacement player (a boxscore estimate of the points per 100 team possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level player)

This regular season, Butler averaged 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, five assists and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 49.9 percent from the field, 41.4 percent from three-point range and 85.8 percent from the foul line. He was one of only five players around the NBA this regular season who averaged more than 20 points per game while shooting better than 49 percent from the field, 41 percent on threes and 85 percent from the foul line along with Kevin Durant of the Phoenix Suns, Kyrie Irving of the Dallas Mavericks, Kawhi Leonard of the Los Angeles Clippers and Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Heat also was 7.5 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the court this regular season. Those struggles without Butler on the court continued this postseason.

With Butler sidelined by a sprained MCL in his right knee for Miami’s short-lived playoff run, the top-seeded Boston Celtics outscored the eighth-seeded Heat by 78 points in their first-round series. The Heat lost the best-of-7 playoff series 4-1.

But how much longer can Butler lead the Heat on deep playoff runs?

The only players in league history to average more than 20 points per game during a playoff run that ended with an NBA championship at age 35 or older are LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, according to Stathead. In other words, there aren’t many NBA players who can lead a team to a championship in their mid-30s.

“He’ll be extremely motivated,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said earlier this month when asked what he expects from Butler next season. “Jimmy views things like us, also. He didn’t want to have our season end in early May. My expectation is at this place in his career and his age that he’ll come into training camp in the best shape of his career. I think that’s the goal, particularly when you get to that stage.”

Before the Heat and Butler get to next season, though, they will need to address the extension question.

Will the Heat offer the extension that Butler seeks this summer? If the Heat doesn’t offer that extension this offseason, what will Butler’s response be? There are plenty of questions left to be answered even before next season begins.