Which spring training statistics matter to Cardinals on the bubble and which don’t?

The official website of the St. Louis Cardinals has an easy-to-reach navigation tab which lays out stats from spring training, updated after every game and there for anyone to analyze beyond what is reasonable or, arguably, even healthy.

The most important thing to remember about spring training stats is still that they don’t matter at all — except, of course, when they absolutely do.

Taking a look at the numbers of the players on the Cardinals’ roster bubble is one useful way to examine that dichotomy. There are numbers that spell out some of the narratives that might define parts of the early roster decisions, even if they don’t tell the whole story.

Some of those numbers have meaning in their absence. Adam Wainwright, for instance, has been away at the World Baseball Classic for the better part of two weeks, and as a result, he’s holding an ugly 7.20 ERA, having allowed four earned runs in five innings pitched in his two starts before his departure.

Most of those numbers don’t matter. Or, at least, they’re a function of numbers that matter more — his velocity, which has been down throughout spring but appeared to be on the rebound in his first appearance for Team USA.

The low innings total, though, does matter, because it opens up opportunities for others. Jake Woodford entered Tuesday’s action as the team leader in innings pitched with nine, and was on tap to add as many as five to that total against the Astros. In those first nine innings, he’s allowed only one run — a solo homer — and struck out seven.

Those numbers are good enough that Woodford seems to be trending from an unfortunate assignment to the minors to, instead, a shot at a somewhat prominent role in the big league bullpen. That may be unfortunate news for pitchers like Wilking Rodríguez and Chris Stratton, both of whom would require roster contorting should the Cardinals opt not to bring them north.

Roster complications also embroil Paul DeJong, whose own numbers both tell and don’t tell the story of his spring. Entering camp, the plan for the Cardinals was to work him in at various spots around the infield, testing his ability to fill in at second and third base as needed even as he worked through the winter changes in his swing that were designed to get him back closer to the offensive force he once was.

Instead, first a sore arm and now a stiff lower back have limited his availability. His most telling number from spring so far? His total of at-bats, which is 13. That’s one less than Nolan Arenado and Tyler O’Neill, both of whom are gone for the WBC, and four less than Luken Baker, a mostly-non-prospect first baseman getting action in mop-up time.

Still, he has six walks paired with those 13 at bats, and has struck out only once. Those numbers combined with only two hits, but those hits were a double and a homer. It’s hard to put up a .154 batting average and a .421 on base percentage at the same time; this is the wonder of small sample size spring training theater.

For the next two weeks, the most important number for DeJong will be between 1 and 9 — any spot in the lineup, any chance to get on the field. If he’s physically unable to hold on to one of those spots, then the Cardinals may find themselves in a position to kick the can on tough decisions regarding DeJong down the road for a few weeks; that may end up being the best outcome for all involved.

Jordan Walker’s numbers matter too, especially given that he’s tied for second in all of baseball in hits, with 14, just one behind Cincinnati’s Christian Encarnacion-Strand. His slugging percentage is north of .700, and if it stays in that neighborhood, he’ll be staying north of Memphis.

One number worth watching with Walker? Zero — that’s the number of walks he’s drawn in spring. Pitchers have given him the chance to get himself out on pitches in the strike zone, and now they’ll see if he’ll get himself out on pitches outside the zone.

Walker’s numbers matter to him, but they also matter to Alec Burleson, working to secure his own roster spot. The Cardinals have a history of belief in Burleson beyond the box score; they believe his professional approach far exceeded his limited results last fall. And yet he’s mustered just five hits and no home runs in his first 24 at bats of spring.

He does have only five strikeouts, which is half as many as Dylan Carlson’s 10 in the same number of at bats. Carlson, though, has popped two homers, and you hardly need numerical data to identify Carlson as the superior defender.

If the numbers force Walker up, push Carlson into a more limited role, and slide Burleson down to Memphis, it’ll be simple enough to understand. Other decisions may not quite be as clear on the balance sheet, but there are plenty of defensible permutations that might not read as cleanly from an algebraic standpoint.

It’s all in knowing which variables count, and which can be safely vanished. Not all baseball equations come out to a perfect balance.