St. Louis saw near-record cold recently. When can the metro-east expect its first snow?

The St. Louis area saw near-record-breaking low temperatures Wednesday along with meeting thresholds for the first frost and hard freeze, but how indicative is the recent cold front to this winter’s weather?

Recent temperatures in the region have been “well-below normal,” National Weather Service St. Louis office meteorologist Jared Maples told the News-Democrat Thursday.

“Some of the high temperatures we did see the other day were only reaching about what our average lows should have been,” Maples said.

Wednesday saw a low of 27 degrees Fahrenheit in St. Louis, Maples said, tying a record low that was set in 1879 and tied in 1911 and 1954.

Belleville residents who enjoy warmer weather may be happy to hear highs will heat up to around 64 to 73 degrees Friday to Monday, though mid-way through next week forecasters expect rain.

While the St. Louis area has seen near-record cold temperatures in the last week, the temperature trends have been unstable.

“Last Friday, we tied a record high in St. Louis of 85 degrees and then the next day, not even 24 hours later, we were about 40 to 45 degrees cooler in some spots than we were the prior days. So that’s a pretty wicked variation between one day and another,” Maples said.

The local NWS office bases much of its data on a climate site in the St. Louis, Mo., area, but Maples said the weather trends are likely to also apply to Belleville since it’s located nearby and at a similar latitude.

Here’s what forecasters expect in the metro-east and St. Louis this winter, plus a seasonal outlook from the Farmers’ Almanac.

What will this winter’s weather look like?

An El Niño weather pattern is emerging this winter after a long stretch of La Niña. The terms El Niño and La Niña refer to climate patterns determined by tradewinds and water temperatures.

We see El Niño occur when tradewinds are weakened and warm water is pushed east, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports.

The Midwest generally sees a little bit warmer and drier weather during El Niño, but since the pattern could last multiple years, it doesn’t necessarily mean this winter will be warm or dry. It simply means the region may see warmer and drier weather than typical more often than not in this El Niño stretch.

The NWS monthly temperature outlook for November predicts roughly equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures and slightly favors below-normal precipitation.

The three-month outlook for November through January says southwestern Illinois and St. Louis have a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures and roughly equal chances of more or less rainfall than usual.

Although NWS meteorologists provide seasonal outlooks, they only forecast more specific expected temperatures and rainfall about seven days out, Maples said. This is because forecasters have more confidence about the probability of their predictions when they’re forecasting between three to seven days out.

Some entities provide 30- or 45-day forecasts, but Maples said many of these are based on computer modeling, which may not be as accurate as a live forecaster sitting down, looking at the available data and using that information to create a forecast.

While El Niño could bring above-normal temperatures this winter, that doesn’t guarantee southwest Illinois and St. Louis won’t see some problematic winter storms. An area could have warmer than usual temperatures for most of the month and have the perfect storm conditions to see three to four days of significant snowfall, Maples said.

Residents of St. Louis and Belleville typically see the first accumulative snow, defined by NWS as a tenth of an inch or more, Dec. 4, Maples said. This is the average first snowfall date; the earliest on record for the region is Oct. 20 in 1916 and the latest is Jan. 21 in 1983.

To prepare for the possibility of storms this winter or any cold season, Maples recommends people keep an emergency kit with the following items in the car:

• Blanket or sleeping bag

• Ice scraper

• Flashlight with batteries

• Hand warmers

• A weather radio and/or fully charged phone

• Cat litter to use for traction if you get stuck

Farmers’ Almanac predictions for snow

The Farmers’ Almanac’s 2023 to 2024 Extended Weather Forecast predicts traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions across the U.S.

The almanac expects Illinois will see a “cold, stormy” season, while Missouri residents will experience “cold” temperatures with “average snowfall.”

The organization makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.

“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”

The almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.