St. Paul, Ramsey County lost population during pandemic, U.S. census and Met Council differ on how much

Frederick Melo, Pioneer Press
·8 min read

St. Paul shrank in the first two years of the pandemic, and so did its suburbs. As for Minneapolis and its west metro neighbors, the verdict is still up in the air, with diverging demographic estimates outlining a notable drop of 5,000 residents or a gain of 7,000 warm bodies.

Given that population counts help determine how state and federal funding is divvied up among cities, counties, schools, hospitals, roads and other uses, those discrepancies aren’t just academic.

“Met Council estimates show ongoing growth in all metro counties except Ramsey County,” said Bonnie Kollodge, a spokesperson for the Metropolitan Council, the seven-county metro area’s regional planning agency.

New population figures compiled by the Met Council differ from that of the U.S. census, which shows significant population losses in Hennepin County — especially Minneapolis — where the planning agency has charted new housing construction and an uptick in residents, even as statewide population growth has fallen below the national average. There’s one area, however, where demographers agree: Ramsey County has lost people.

How many people?

That’s unclear. The Met Council’s figures show a trickle of population loss in St. Paul, or a net drop of 535 people in total, lowering the St. Paul population from 311,527 residents in 2020 to 310,992 in 2022. In that time, Ramsey County dropped 1,157 people overall, by the agency’s estimates, falling from 552,352 residents to 551,195. It could be a temporary blip.

U.S. census shows bigger loss for Ramsey County, St. Paul

But not so fast. The U.S. Census Bureau shows a more sizable drop of 8,300 people in St. Paul — and 16,000 people in Ramsey County overall — from April 2020 to July 2022. A capital city of more than 311,500 people is now officially a city of 303,176 people, at least as of last summer, according to the feds.

For St. Paul, that’s a notable population decline of 2.7% following years of resurgent urban growth.

Dueling population counts

2022 St. Paul population estimates:

U.S. Census Bureau: 303,176 (down 16,000 people)

Metropolitan Council: 310,993 (down 535 people)

2022 Minneapolis population estimates:

U.S. Census Bureau: 425,096 (down 4,889 people)

Met Council: 436,934 (up 6,978)

SOURCES: census.gov/quickfacts/stpaulcityminnesota, tinyurl.com/MetCouncil2022Pop

But homebuilding numbers would seem to contradict that trend.

The seven-county metro added about 42,000 new housing units between the 2020 census and April 1, 2022, and Hennepin and Ramsey counties accounted for more than half of that new housing, according to the Met Council.

“The Census Bureau indicates substantial population losses in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, primarily because more people are moving out of these counties than are moving in,” said Kollodge this week. “From the council’s perspective, such large population losses are hard to reconcile with the rapid pace of new development.”

Realtors say they continue to see high housing demand in St. Paul. When it comes to real estate showings, “I haven’t seen any loss,” said Mark Lentsch, a lifelong St. Paul resident and Realtor who recently toured 30 prospective buyers through a home near Como Lake. The house sold for well above asking price.

A more affordable property goes on the market in about two weeks on Sherburne Avenue in Frogtown, and “I already have a dozen people set up to look at it,” Lentsch said. “That’s happening all over.”

Minneapolis lost 5,000 people — or gained 7,000

Housing construction would also seem to belie the Census Bureau claim that Hennepin County lost 21,447 residents in two years, or 1.7% of its population, dropping from 1.28 million down to 1.26 million people. Minneapolis suffered a net loss of 4,889 people, shrinking from 429,985 to 425,096 residents, after losing about 1.1% of its population, based on the bureau’s findings.

The Met Council, on the other hand, estimates that Minneapolis grew by 7,000 people in that time, and Hennepin County grew by 11,000.

What is clear is that in an era of remote work, there’s less need to move where the jobs are, and both downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul have lost some commercial activity that’s also likely tempering some residential growth.

“The one condo I’m selling, the residents are getting out of downtown but staying in St. Paul by the river,” said Tom Wiener, a former St. Paul East Sider and longtime Realtor based in Oakdale. “They moved downtown because of the restaurants and the activity, and it’s just not there anymore. In their minds, downtown has definitely not returned.”

Still, demand is high.

“Another guy is tearing down a house and overbuilding by $800,000, in my mind, for the value of the neighborhood, but he’s an older gentleman and just loves the city,” Wiener said.

Other factors

Beyond remote work, a host of other factors that made urban living less attractive in the past two years could weigh on the numbers: COVID-19 deaths, remote schooling, crime rates, rising home prices and high interest rates, social unrest following the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, and the general malaise of navigating the pandemic in densely-populated urban areas without full access to restaurants and other attractions.

“During the pandemic and the civil unrest, we were getting people coming out of the city who were heading outward and wanted more space, home offices and really good internet, but that’s settled down now,” said Tracy Baglio, a Stillwater-based Realtor.

International migration slowed as a direct result of policies enacted by President Donald Trump to stem refugee arrivals, and then it slowed again as borders sealed during the COVID pandemic. It’s since picked up, according to demographers.

Between April 2020 and April 2022, Ramsey County recorded about 3,900 more births than deaths and added 3,600 residents through international migration, but the number of people leaving for other counties and states exceeded those moving in by 23,400, according to the Census Bureau.

Meanwhile, millennials may now be looking to suburban starter homes with a yard. If the housing market becomes more affordable, could more millennials return to the city? The Minneapolis Area Realtors and the St. Paul Area Association of Realtors reported that home prices dipped in May for the first time since 2012, but sellers were still receiving offers above their asking price.

“We’re dealing with an inventory shortage, so instead of saying, ‘I only want to live in St. Paul,’ they have to keep an open mind about the suburbs,” said Brianne Lawrence, a Realtor with Edge Real Estate Services in Lakeville. “In the past, people would say, ‘I will never live again in my parents’ basement,’ and now, even if they rented for a couple years, they’re back in their parents’ basement trying to save for that down payment, because rents are getting so expensive, too. To be able to pay rent and save money becomes next to impossible. Even Generation X is doing that right now.”

Met Council: Ongoing growth in all metro counties except Ramsey

The U.S. Census Bureau relies heavily on a paper census of every American household taken every 10 years. Based on the decennial census, the federal bureau makes population estimates and projections, incorporating the latest available data on births, deaths and migration to update the numbers annually.

But why such a discrepancy in population estimates?

Matt Schroeder, senior researcher with the Met Council, said the Census Bureau is a bit more top-down when it comes to making national estimates and then breaking down the numbers by state, county, city and township, while the Met Council’s population estimates are based upon a broader array of local sources.

The Census Bureau, for instance, uses Internal Revenue Service data on tax returns to determine migration patterns for workers under age 65, and then applies those patterns to all workers.

“They have to extrapolate from that to the general population, and generalize to everyone,” said Schroeder, noting there’s some risk in that method. “Families who file tax returns tend to be higher income than those who do not.”

The Met Council, on the other hand, releases its own estimates annually using the U.S. Census data as a baseline, while incorporating fresh information such as its own housing permit surveys and U.S. Postal Service data. It also looks at housing occupancy rates and average household size.

All demographers acknowledge they’re studying a moving target.

“They’re taking their best guess based on the data they have available, and we’re taking our best guess based on the data we have available,” Schroeder said.

County planners use both sets of data, depending upon the program and funding source they’re planning around, leaning toward Met Council data if a program is funded by the Met Council. State programs rely more on the U.S. Census, which tallies statewide figures. Time will tell how indicative of a longer-term trend either data set proves to be.

“Ramsey County’s investments in well-being, prosperity and opportunity fueled population growth from 2010-2020 that unrivaled any period since the 1960’s,” said Ramsey County Manager Ryan O’Connor, in a written statement. “The past two years have seen a slight population decrease that, like every other facet of life, has ties to a global pandemic.”

“We believe that the investments we have made and are continuing to make will fuel a return toward population growth,” O’Connor continued. “Ultimately, this later-stage pandemic period could very well prove to be an anomaly that will adjust itself back toward continued growth in the state’s most vibrant, diverse and densely populated county.”

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