St. X-Manual state football final? Latest playoff projections based on KHSAA's RPI ratings

Jason Frakes, Louisville Courier Journal
·5 min read

With three weeks remaining in the regular season, the playoff picture for Kentucky high school football teams is starting to take shape.

For the fourth consecutive year, the Kentucky High School Athletic Association will be using its RPI ratings to seed teams in the third and fourth rounds of the playoffs.

The current No. 1 teams in the RPI ratings are Hazard (Class A), Beechwood (2A), Bardstown (3A), Corbin (4A), Covington Catholic (5A) and St. Xavier (6A).

The playoffs are scheduled to begin Nov. 4, with state finals set for Dec. 2-4 at the University of Kentucky’s Kroger Field in Lexington.

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Before taking a class-by-class look at possible playoff matchups, here are a few reminders about the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index):

  • The RPI will be used to determine playoff matchups in the third round and beyond. In the first two rounds of the playoffs, teams will play corresponding districts, with District One vs. District Two, Three vs. Four, Five vs. Six and Seven vs. Eight. The first-place team will host the fourth-place team from the opposite district, and the second-place team will host the third-place team. The winners will meet in the second round.

  • The RPI is a calculation of winning percentage (35%), opponents’ winning percentage (35%) and opponents’ opponents winning percentage (30%). Margin of victory is not a part of the formula. Out-of-state opponents are given a .5106 winning percentage.

  • The KHSAA also is using a “game value factor” with the RPI formula, based on a 15% difference as class sizes become larger. The game value factors are 1.323 for Class A, 1.521 for 2A, 1.749 for 3A, 2.011 for 4A, 2.313 for 5A and 2.660 for 6A. The “game value factor” helps explain why teams in small-school classes, on average, have higher ratings than teams in big-school classes.

  • The KHSAA is publishing team-by-team data on its website at khsaa.org in an attempt to make the calculations transparent.

Here’s a look at how each class breaks down. Playoff projections are based on the top two rated teams in each district group advancing to the third round and the higher-rated team winning each game the rest of the way.

Matchups in the third round of the playoffs include a geographical factor, with winners in Districts 1-4 in one group and winners in District 5-8 in another group. There are no geographical factors involved for state semifinal matchups.

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Class A

Kentucky County Day head coach Matthew Jones, center, watches practice at the school in Louisville, Ky. on Aug. 4, 2021.
Kentucky County Day head coach Matthew Jones, center, watches practice at the school in Louisville, Ky. on Aug. 4, 2021.

Top five teams: 1. Hazard .76784; 2. Pikeville .76775; 3. Bethlehem .73611; 4. Raceland .73600; 5. Kentucky Country Day .72406.

Third-round playoff matchups: Newport Central Catholic at Bethlehem; Holy Cross at Kentucky Country Day; Paris at Hazard; Raceland at Pikeville.

Semifinal matchups: Kentucky Country Day at Hazard; Bethlehem at Pikeville.

Championship game: Pikeville vs. Hazard.

Notable: Hazard and Pikeville are in the same district but could avoid each other in the playoffs until the state championship game.

Class 2A

Top five teams: 1. Beechwood .78947; 2. Mayfield .75753; 3. McLean County .73406; 4. Owensboro Catholic .71967; 5. Hancock County .68631.

Third-round playoff matchups: Somerset at Mayfield; Lexington Christian at McLean County; Shelby Valley at Beechwood; Lloyd Memorial at Breathitt County.

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Semifinal matchups: Breathitt County at Beechwood; McLean County at Mayfield.

Championship game: Mayfield vs. Beechwood.

Notable: Five of the top six teams in the state, according to the RPI, are in the two westernmost districts – Mayfield in District One and McLean County, Owensboro Catholic, Hancock County and Butler County in District Two.

Class 3A

CAL's Gavin Copenhaver (16) caught a pass for a touchdown against Henry County during their game at the CAL stadium in Louisville, Ky. on Sept. 30, 2022.
CAL's Gavin Copenhaver (16) caught a pass for a touchdown against Henry County during their game at the CAL stadium in Louisville, Ky. on Sept. 30, 2022.

Top five teams: 1. Bardstown .78375; 2. Christian Academy .73845; 3. Union County .70265; 4. Mason County .68326; 5. Bell County .64704.

Third-round playoff matchups: Trigg County at Bardstown; Union County at Christian Academy; Greenup County at Mason County; Lawrence County at Bell County.

Semifinal matchups: Bell County at Bardstown; Mason County at Christian Academy.

Championship game: Christian Academy vs. Bardstown.

Notable: Neither of last year’s state finalists are projected to reach the third round. Defending champion Belfry (4-3) is ranked No. 16 in 3A, and 2021 runner-up Paducah Tilghman (3-4) is ranked No. 14.

Class 4A

Spencer County High's Cameron Caldwell runs around the end against Collins High's. Sept. 9, 2022
Spencer County High's Cameron Caldwell runs around the end against Collins High's. Sept. 9, 2022

Top five teams: 1. Corbin .77562; 2. Lexington Catholic .77074; 3. Boyle County .75870; 4. Spencer County .66625; 5. Warren East .63419.

Third-round playoff matchups: Franklin County at Spencer County; Logan County at Warren East; Letcher County Central at Corbin; Boyle County at Lexington Catholic.

Semifinal matchups: Warren East at Corbin; Spencer County at Lexington Catholic.

Championship game: Lexington Catholic vs. Corbin.

Notable: A Boyle County-Lexington Catholic matchup in the third round would be a rematch of last week’s classic that the Knights rallied to win 28-27.

Class 5A

Top five teams: 1. Covington Catholic .70855; 2. Frederick Douglass .70613; 3. Woodford County .67953; 4. Bowling Green .67601; 5. Southwestern .67039.

Third-round playoff matchups: South Oldham at Bowling Green; Fairdale at Greenwood; Southwestern at Covington Catholic; Woodford County at Frederick Douglass.

Semifinal matchups: Greenwood at Covington Catholic; Bowling Green at Frederick Douglass.

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Championship game: Frederick Douglass vs. Covington Catholic.

Notable: Defending state champion South Warren (4-3) is ranked No. 13 in the RPI, and 2021 state semifinalist Owensboro (5-2) is ranked No. 11. Neither is projected to reach the third round.

Class 6A

Top five teams: 1. St. Xavier .68297; 2. Manual .64236; 3. Ballard .63568; 4. Ryle .58142; 5. Henderson County .58098.

Third-round playoff matchups: Daviess County at St. Xavier; Henderson County at Manual; Madison Central at Ballard; Bryan Station at Ryle.

Semifinal matchups: Ryle at St. Xavier; Ballard at Manual.

Championship game: Manual vs. St. Xavier.

Notable: Neither No. 11 Male (4-3) nor No. 12 Trinity (4-4) is projected to reach the third round.

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @kyhighs.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: KHSAA football: Check out playoff projections based on latest RPI