Staff Picks: Not good news for Rebels in top-15 matchup
Sep. 29—Mississippi State enjoyed a big win over Bowling Green last week, but when you leave an SEC win on the table — as the Bulldogs did at LSU — it leaves an itch you really can't scratch until you win another SEC game.
The Bulldogs hope to scratch the itch Saturday against Texas A&M in Starkville.
Ole Miss and Kentucky meet in Oxford, a matchup of top-15 unbeatens.
The Rebels might not have enjoyed their win over Tulsa in the way the Bulldogs did their rout against Bowling Green, but it went down in the win column for Ole Miss nonetheless.
The Rebels were outscored 13-0 after building a 35-14 lead.
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss
In some respects it feels like Saturday will be the season opener for Ole Miss.
This is the game many fans circled on the schedule as the Rebels' first test. It certainly feels that way.
Both teams are 4-0, but Kentucky rose quickly in the rankings after a convincing 26-16 win at Florida in Week 2.
In a quirk of SEC scheduling, this will be Kentucky's first visit to Ole Miss in more than a decade.
The Rebels beat Kentucky 42-35 with Jeremiah Masoli as quarterback in Oxford in 2010.
The last three meetings have been in Lexington, and Ole Miss has won the last two in 2017 under Matt Luke and in 2020 for Lane Kiffin's first win as Rebels coach.
This Kentucky team arrives with a solid defense ranking 11th in scoring defense and 17th in total defense.
That defense is getting a boost from a couple of names familiar to Ole Miss fans: former Rebels linebacker Jaquez Jones and cornerback Keidron Smith.
Smith has an interception, three pass break-ups and a fumble recovery this season.
Jones has a team-leading 26 tackles and a sack.
Kentucky's run game ranks No. 123. The Cats have gotten just 81.5 yards per game, but that run game stands to look very different Saturday with the return of Chris Rodriguez, who has not played this season. Rodriguez is the SEC's top returning rusher from 2021 after totaling 1,379 yards last year.
Before last week, Ole Miss had amassed some nice defensive numbers against the weakest part of its schedule. The Rebels have shown an ability to gang tackle and typically fare well against opposing running backs, though last week against Tulsa was not their best showing.
The problem for Ole Miss in this game is not Rodriguez but quarterback Will Levis, a big guy at 6-3, 232.
Last week the Rebels struggled with Tulsa backup quarterback Braylon Braxton, also a big, athletic guy. They buzzed Braxton and got around him but couldn't get him down. He evaded pressure and extended plays.
Levis has that potential and more experience. He's third in the SEC in pass efficiency and in touchdown passes as he completes passes at a 67.5 percent clip. Kentucky doesn't run Levis often, but he'll extend plays.
Ole Miss expects to be healthier at running back, but this is not going to be a game that the Rebels can be one-dimensional on offense. (Clip and paste that for every SEC game.)
Ole Miss will get some things done in the run game but will have to get tight end Michael Trigg and its receivers involved.
What concerns me is that in the Rebels' stiffest pre-conference test, Tulsa, they tackled poorly, and Kentucky will be their greatest challenge yet.
Prediction: Kentucky 28, Ole Miss 26
The Beat Guys: De'Rosa, Kentucky; Katz, Ole Miss.
No. 17 Texas A&M at MSU
The Aggies have already shocked the world this season but in an unfortunate way — they lost at home 17-14 to Appalachian State in Week 2.
Since then, A&M has posted back-to-back wins against top-15-ranked foes in Miami and Arkansas.
Max Johnson, the LSU QB last season, quarterbacked both of those wins, though he threw for more than 152 yards in neither.
In addition, the Aggies lost their top WR, Ainias Smith, to a season-ending injury against the Hogs.
The Aggies haven't set the woods afire in their run game either.
It all adds up to A&M ranking last in the SEC and No. 108 in America in scoring offense at 21.2 points a game. In turn, a solid MSU defense should have a strong performance in a big SEC game at home.
The Aggies have been pretty good defensively themselves.
They're among the lesser teams in the nation in actual sacks, yet they are among the better teams — ranking No. 11 — in pass defense efficiency.
In their loss at LSU, one of the main problems for the Bulldogs was pass protection. Drops were another problem, but by and large receivers were able to get into position, and Will Rogers was able to deliver the ball.
If the Bulldogs can protect Rogers, they'll be in good position for a second-straight win in the series.
That's a big if, given the expected absence of left tackle Kwatrivous "Dollar Bill" Johnson.
There will be occasional gaps in the MSU line. Mike Leach should be able to respond with quick passing play-calls, and Rogers at LSU showed his maturity by getting rid of the ball after one early sack in which he held on too long.
The Bulldogs also go into this game with a confidence boost after winning 26-22 in College Station last year. Rogers threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions then.
The LSU loss has created uncertainty for an MSU team that had high expectations not long ago.
The rest of October includes Arkansas at home then road games at Kentucky and Alabama. Even a 2-2 month likely sets up the Bulldogs for a minimum of four losses since No. 1 Georgia appears on the schedule in November.
Beating Texas A&M would be the first step in restoring a sense of calm and confidence. Then maybe MSU can regain its footing and surprise some people in the month ahead.
Prediction: MSU 22, Texas A&M 19
The Beat Guys: De'Rosa, MSU; Katz, Texas A&M.
Elsewhere in College Football
Last Week: Theo 9-0, PA 8-1, Michael 7-2
Overall: Theo 31-3, PA 28-6, Michael 27-7
Alabama at Arkansas
Alford: Alabama
DeRosa: Alabama
Katz: Alabama
LSU at Auburn
Alford: LSU
DeRosa: LSU
Katz: LSU
Texas Tech at Kansas State
Alford: Kansas State
DeRosa: Kansas State
Katz: Kansas State
Wake Forest at Florida State
Alford: Wake Forest
DeRosa: Wake Forest
Katz: Wake Forest
North Carolina State at Clemson
Alford: Clemson
DeRosa: Clemson
Katz: Clemson
Oklahoma State at Baylor
Alford: Baylor
DeRosa: Baylor
Katz: Baylor
Oklahoma at TCU
Alford: Oklahoma
DeRosa: Oklahoma
Katz: Oklahoma
Recipe of the Week
Pumpkin Bread
This is a year-round thing at our house, a family favorite.
The contents: 3 1/2 cups of flour, 1 1/2 teaspoons salt, 1 teaspoon nutmeg, 2 teaspoons baking soda, 2 teaspoons cinnamon, 3 cups sugar.
In a separate bowl, mix 1 cup oil, 4 eggs, 2-3 cup water, 1 small can of pumpkin.
The process: Mix all ingredients. Bake in greased pan at 350 for 1 1/2 hours. Laurie says you may want to check in an hour. At our house that means insert a toothpick in the center.
PARRISH ALFORD is the college sports editor and columnist for the Daily Journal. Contact him at parrish.alford@journalinc.com.
