What is at stake for Kentucky basketball in regular season finale at Florida
LEXINGTON – Postseason play is just over the horizon for Kentucky basketball, but one final regular season game still contains relatively important stakes.
UK coach John Calipari has vowed not to let his team look past the regular season finale at Florida due to the allure of the SEC Tournament next week and the NCAA Tournament to follow.
“I won't let them do that,” Calipari said. “We could go to Florida and get beat, but it won't be because we're overlooking them. We know how good they are, and it's on the road, and you know what it's going to be: A nuthouse because that's what happens every time we come in town.”
The success or failure of Kentucky’s season will ultimately be judged on what happens in the NCAA Tournament, but what happens in Gainesville could have direct implications on the postseason.
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Here is a closer look at what’s at stake for the Wildcats at Florida.
SEC championship
While Kentucky cannot earn the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament, it still can claim a share of the regular season league title with some help.
Kentucky enters the final weekend in a three-way tie for second place with Tennessee and Arkansas, one game behind Auburn. A Kentucky win and Auburn loss to South Carolina would result in a three-way tie for the league title with the winner of Saturday’s game between Tennessee and Arkansas also finishing in first place. The league does not break ties for the regular season championship.
UK has won 49 SEC titles all time. No other team has won more than 11.
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SEC Tournament seeding
While ties are not broken for the purposes of declaring a league champion, they are for seeding the SEC Tournament field.
The No. 3 seed in Tampa is Kentucky’s best-case scenario entering the final weekend thanks to the league tie-breaking procedures.
Even if Auburn loses and Kentucky wins Saturday, the Wildcats would have the worst head-to-head record among the three tied teams, regardless of who wins the Tennessee-Arkansas game. An Auburn win combined with a Kentucky win would leave UK in a tie for second place with the winner of Tennessee and Arkansas. Since the second tie-breaker for teams that split regular season meetings is record against the No. 1 seed, Kentucky loses the tie-breaker to Tennessee or Arkansas.
So, the math is fairly simple for Kentucky this weekend: A win at Florida makes Kentucky the No. 3 seed in Tampa and a loss leave the Wildcats as the No. 4 seed.
Kentucky is assured a double bye in the tournament regardless of Saturday’s outcome, but the No. 4 seed would have to face the No. 1 seed in the semifinals instead of the finals. The potential downside to the No. 3 seed is opening play in the late game on Friday, sometime after 8 p.m.
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NCAA Tournament seeding
Kentucky’s chances of earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament appear slim, but the weekend of chaos in which the top six teams in the Associated Press top 25 all lost has at least left the door open.
Calipari’s team surely needs to run the table to have any chance of a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. Even then, Kentucky probably needs two teams in the group of Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas and Auburn to lose another game.
Kentucky winning out would mean Auburn lost at some point in the SEC Tournament. Kansas and Baylor might have to play each other in the Big 12 Tournament, but the committee might not see a loss in that matchup as reason to drop either team.
Kansas might be the most realistic team for Kentucky to pass, if it can close the gap in Quadrant 1 wins (9 to 7). A win at Florida would count as a Quad 1 victory for Kentucky, but so would a Kansas win over Texas Saturday. Kentucky could gain Quad 1 wins in Tampa against any SEC team ranked in the top 50 in the NET (Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas and Alabama). Kansas will have further Quad 1 opportunities in the Big 12 Tournament.
During the committee’s early bracket reveal last month, the chairman suggested Kentucky’s 18-point blowout of Kansas in Lawrence would become more of a factor if the two teams were ranked directly next to each other on the s-curve.
Email Jon Hale at jahale@courier-journal.com; Follow him on Twitter at @JonHale_CJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball: SEC Tournament seeding on the line at Florida
