What’s at stake Sunday vs. Patriots? Only the Miami Dolphins’ realistic playoff hopes

Week 14 was about learning how far the Miami Dolphins have come two years into their rebuild.

Week 15 will be about learning where they’re going the rest of the season.

While Sunday’s 33-27 loss the Chiefs was unhelpful to Miami’s playoff hopes, it wasn’t fatal.

What very likely would be: A loss to the New England Patriots in the Dolphins’ 2020 home finale this weekend.

Must win?

Still a little too early for that (but not much).

But better win?

You betcha.

Paths do exist to the postseason even with a loss to the Patriots, but those roads are rocky and guarded by monsters.

We wouldn’t suggest Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa take those roads.

The forecasting models agree.

The Dolphins woke up Monday with a one-in-three chance to reach the postseason, according to Five Thirty Eight.

Those odds obviously did not include the outcome of Monday night’s Browns-Ravens game, with the Dolphins rooting hard against Baltimore, which entered Week 14 a game back of the seventh seed.

Regardless of the Cleveland-Baltimore outcome, the Dolphins still control their own fate. If they win out — against New England, Las Vegas and Buffalo — they’re in.

But a loss in any of those games would open the door for the Ravens, with the tiebreakers getting far more dicey for Miami.

That’s why Five Thirty Eight drops the Dolphins’ playoffs chances below 20 percent with a loss to New England. But a win would put them in pole position to grab the seventh seed.

Beat either the faltering Raiders the day after Christmas or the Bills — who could have nothing to play for in Week 17 and might rest their players — and they’re probably OK, but that’s no guarantee considering the Ravens’ final three opponents have a combined winning percentage of .218.

(To be sure, beating a full-strength Bills team would be a challenge. Local handicapper Lee Sterling, who runs Paramount Sports, estimates the Dolphins would be eight-point underdogs at Buffalo if the game were held this week.)

If history is any guide, the Dolphins should have a real shot Sunday.

In games held in December or January, the Patriots have won once at Hard Rock Stadium since 2013 and three times in South Florida since 1988.

During much of that stretch, the Patriots were one of the best teams in the league. And yet, crazy things often happen down here around the holidays. Exhibit A: the Miami Miracle in 2018.

The Dolphins enter Sunday’s late-season showdown as the better team for the first time in a generation. At 6-7, the Patriots have just a 3 percent chance of returning to the playoffs for the 12th straight season. The Dolphins would reduce those odds to 0 percent with a win.

“Critical on both sides,” said Dolphins safety Eric Rowe, who has played on both sides of this rivalry. “They’re trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. We are too. If we lose these last three, I’m pretty sure we’ll be out.”

The Dolphins not only have a chance, at home, to formally end the Patriots dynasty, they’re expected to.

Even with a rash of injuries on offense, Miami opened as a 2 1/2-point home favorite against New England.

But any winning game plan has to include a much better run-defense strategy than when the teams met in Foxboro in Week 1.

Cam Newton went for 75 yards on the ground, keying a Patriots rushing attack that gouged the Dolphins for 217 back in September.

Thankfully for the Dolphins, their run defense has improved noticeably since then. In the 12 games since, they’ve allowed 112.2 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry — numbers that aren’t great, but also not terrible.

And if the Dolphins can get an early lead, the Patriots probably don’t have the firepower to come back. Newton ranks in the bottom five league-wide in passing yards (181.0 per game) and passer rating (78.9).

“This is a big game this week,” Flores said. “Every division game is a big game. We know this team, we know they are tough, they are well-coached, they are competitive, they’ll be ready to go. They’re going to give us their best shot — we know that — in all three phases.”