Starting 5: Best-case scenario for Indiana college basketball Division I teams for 2022-23

Zach Osterman, Tom Noie, Mike Carmin, David Woods, Anthony Kristensen, Robby General, Akeem Glaspie, Matthew VanTryon and Hendrix Magley, Indianapolis Star
·6 min read

The college basketball season officially tips off Nov. 7, and Indiana has a new, 11th school playing Division I hoops (welcome, Southern Indiana). In preparation of the 2022-23 season, we asked reporters across the USA TODAY Network's Indiana newspapers five questions about the teams they cover. We will publish one each day this week.

STARTING 5 SCHEDULE

Monday: Potential breakout players

Tuesday: Newcomers to watch

Wednesday: Biggest concern

Thursday: Best-case scenario

Friday: Game I'm most looking forward to

Ball State

No, Ball State has not been among the best teams in the Mid-American Conference the past couple seasons. It has, however, consistently been in the middle of the league, good enough to the make the MAC tournament before making an early exit. Best-case scenario? Ball State immediately becomes a MAC contender, makes a run in March and snaps a 23-year drought by getting a bid in the NCAA tournament. The more realistic scenario? Ball State gets back to being a MAC contender and spends more than one night in Cleveland during the conference tournament.  — Robby General, The Star Press

More:For Michael Lewis, it's a matter of when, not if, Ball State will return to NCAA tournament

Butler

Thad Matta talks at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Wednesday, April 6, 2022, in a ceremony for his second stint as head coach of the men’s basketball program at Butler University.
Thad Matta talks at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Wednesday, April 6, 2022, in a ceremony for his second stint as head coach of the men’s basketball program at Butler University.

Back to March Madness. Butler has not played in the NCAA tournament since 2018 nor finished in top three of the Big East since 2017. Despite being projected for eighth place in the coaches’ preseason poll and starting out last in KenPom computer rankings, both could happen in 2023.

Coach Thad Matta has a hall-of-fame resume, and that matters. What matters more than the coach are the players — and Matta has upgraded the roster with four transfers. Moreover, holdovers Chuck Harris, Jayden Taylor, Simas Lukosius, Myles Tate and Myles Wilmoth will be better. — David Woods, IndyStar

More:Not much is expected of Butler in 2022-23. Thad Matta's job? 'Make them better'

Evansville

Given the honeymoon feel around the program, it can be easy to forget why coach David Ragland was hired in the first place. The Aces finished 6-24 last season, their worst Division I record, and lost almost all of their key pieces from a year ago. With a limited window to bring transfers in, expectations should be kept relatively low.

Ragland's plans fit what the Missouri Valley Conference is —a play-hard, rebounding and defending league. Some of the players he brought in fit that mold, which should help. The first-year coach said his first season at the helm is about setting the culture, and that seems to be working. If UE can be competitive, that'd be a massive step up from the previous regime. The best-case scenario is likely hovering around a 10-win season and getting out of the MVC's bottom spot. — Anthony Kristensen, Courier & Press

More:5 things to know about Evansville men's basketball

Indiana

IU’s experience, depth and defensive ability give the Hoosiers a high floor in a weak Big Ten. Indiana grabs a couple of valuable nonconference wins (say, at Xavier and home to North Carolina) and takes care of business against the bottom of the league, giving the Hoosiers the platform to make a run at both a conference championship and a robust NCAA tournament seed. By March, it will have been seven years since they last won a Big Ten title and, remarkably, a full decade since they were a top-four seed in the field of 68. A best-case scenario — but, it should be said, a reasonable one — sees Woodson’s team end both droughts in March, and set up for a deep tournament run. — Zach Osterman, IndyStar

Indiana State

The best-case scenario is posting a winning record and winning a MVC tournament game. When Indiana State let go of longtime coach Greg Lansing, several players transferred out of the program including first-round NBA draft pick Jake LaRavia (Wake Forest). New coach Josh Schertz brought several players with him from Lincoln Memorial, but completely turning over a roster takes time. The Sycamores went 11-20 in Year 1, and a winning record in Year 2 would be a great sign of progress. Winning a MVC tournament game after losing in the opening round to Illinois State is another best-case scenario. — Akeem Glaspie, IndyStar

IUPUI

The best-case scenario for IUPUI would be to end the season with a full rotation of players. Transfers and injuries happen, but the Jags must avoid the significant amount of both they experienced last season. If second-year coach Matt Crenshaw can keep enough players in place, IUPUI can gain stability and begin to rebuild the program back to its former glory.  — Akeem Glaspie, IndyStar

Notre Dame

Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey circles up with players during practice Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at the Rolfs Athletics Hall in South Bend.
Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey circles up with players during practice Tuesday, July 19, 2022 at the Rolfs Athletics Hall in South Bend.

Mike Brey's self-proclaimed "Big Three" of Cormac Ryan, Nate Laszewski and fellow super senior Dane Goodwin drive this program back to a top-four finish in the ACC and get to at least the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016. This group learned what the NCAA tournament is like last March by playing three high-energy games (and winning two). It now wants more. They're built for the long haul with pieces the program hasn't had for years. Time to cash in. — Tom Noie, South Bend Tribune

More:Yeah, these Irish are old, but they're also good and driven to do even more

Purdue

The frontline of Zach Edey, Caleb Furst, Mason Gillis and Trey Kaufman-Renn live up to their billing as the best in the Big Ten, keeping the Boilermakers in the conference race. Smith is the answer at point guard and Purdue demonstrates it's one of the best shooting teams in the country on a consistent basis.  The defense improves from a year ago and the Boilermakers emerged as a serious threat to win the league. — Mike Carmin, Journal & Courier

Purdue primer: Point guard, post play, defense among topics as practice starts

Purdue Fort Wayne

The Mastodons use the momentum from last season’s late surge (10 straight wins before a loss in the Horizon League tournament semifinals) and carry it over. Their group knows what the spotlight feels like, and they won’t be easily shaken. Led by preseason All-Horizon League first team pick Jarred Godfrey, Purdue Fort Wayne takes care of business during the regular season and prepares for a deep tournament run. — Matthew VanTryon, IndyStar

Southern Indiana

Preseason predictions for the Ohio Valley Conference have been all over the map. A wide-open conference could be good news for USI. KenPom’s projection could potentially be the best-case scenario —a 17-13 record (11-7 OVC) would likely have USI be a top-three seed in the OVC tournament. It could also earn them a spot in the CBI postseason tournament. That would be a strong introduction to Division I play. — Hendrix Magley, Courier & Press

'We project ourselves at No. 1': USI men's basketball hopes first OVC season is historic

Valparaiso

Ben Krikke and Kobe King take their games to the next level and turn into one of the best 1-2 punches in the conference. Freshman Maximus Nelson carries over his success from the high school level and becomes a starter by the start of conference play. — Matthew VanTryon, IndyStar

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana college basketball: Division I 2022-23 best-case scenarios