State of the race: Poll by Al Lawson supporters show uphill re-election battle with Neal Dunn

A recent poll has Rep. Al Lawson, D-Tallahassee, trailing Congressman Neal Dunn, R-Panama City, by six points in a re-election battle that could determine U.S. House party control.

The Southern Roots PAC, a committee organized in August to support Lawson, paid to have 600 voters surveyed during the third week of September. Respondents said they favored Dunn 49% to 43%. Politico first reported the poll results.

They were released amid simmering complaints by the Congressional Black Caucus and grassroots organizations that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic National Committee are not supporting Black candidates in key races.

“Frankly, I’m less concerned with polls and more focused on meeting the people in the district and finding out what they need from their member of Congress. I have always worked hard to ensure the people of North Florida have a voice in government, and I’ll be working hard from now until Nov. 8,” said Lawson about the poll's findings.

More Congressional District 2 news: Neal Dunn, Al Lawson on different sides of U.S. House Bill to codify same-sex marriage

Democrats currently hold a nine-seat majority, but since the 1940s, the president’s party on average loses 26 seats in a mid-term election.

This pattern makes Lawson vulnerable, especially given the partisan makeup of the new Congressional District 2, and the fundraising advantage Dunn holds.

Lawson and Dunn were lumped together in the same district by Gov. Ron DeSantis in a redistricting map that eliminated Lawson’s Black-access seat.

The consensus among politicians and data analysts is the DeSantis map could increase the number of Florida Republicans in the U.S. House by three and maybe as much as five.

Lawson called the DeSantis map a devious plan to eliminate minority districts and deliver the House to Republicans.

“He wants to show his other constituents that when he runs for president he did all he could do to have Kevin McCarthy become the Speaker of the House,” Lawson told the Tallahassee Democrat, referencing the leader of the Republican Caucus.

New District 2 leans heavily Republican

After the 2020 election, the GOP held a five-seat advantage in the Florida delegation. Most experts think the new map favors Republicans in 18 districts and Democrats in 10.

The new Congressional District 2 leans Republican in a big way.

The 15-county district stretches 250 miles across the Panhandle from Fort Walton around the Big Bend to Steinhatchee in Taylor County, with Panama City and Tallahassee as the urban centers.

Voters in the newly created district favored DeSantis by nearly eight points in 2018 and former President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2020.

“My conservative principles are more in line with the people of the district,” said Dunn, who cites reducing regulations and taxes as his priorities.

Dunn said he wants to return to Washington to stop “the Biden administration’s failed policies.

“My constituents are struggling with costly energy and gas prices thanks to the Democrats’ war on energy,” said Dunn.

He enjoys a financial advantage over Lawson.

August campaign finance reports shows the Panama City Republican had $763,121 on hand for the fall campaign compared to Lawson’s $422,487.

Lawson said he counts on his 34 years as an elected official in Tallahassee and Washington to counter Dunn’s financial and partisan advantages.

Those numbers were not with him, he said, when he ran for the state Senate with Bushes in both the White House and Governor’s Mansion. Or in 1982 when there was only one Black registered voter in Apalachicola, who Lawson sought out to ask for a vote in a race where he became the first Black Florida House member since the end of Reconstruction.

“Things don’t come easy. It takes a complete commitment of mind and body to win,” he told the Democrat.  “I’ve spent a lot of time with the people in this district. You need crossover voters in order to win, just like that first time in Apalachicola."

He adds over the past six years he has delivered money to the district for infrastructure projects, and supported COVID relief, and stimulus proposals “my opponent voted against.”

Lawson said he is confident voters know his record.

“I put policy ahead of politics to get results,” said Lawson.

Nancy Texeira organized the Southern Roots PAC to support the Lawson campaign, she said, after Lawson “was directly targeted by Ron DeSantis to disenfranchise Black voters.”

Texeira has worked on previous Lawson campaigns and raised money for the Florida Senate Republican Caucus, when former Sen. Bill Galvano was Senate President, and other legislators.

Texeira said the national Democratic party consistently ignores Northwest Florida campaigns to its own detriment and “it’s getting worse” every election cycle.

The Southern Roots website fundraising pitch for Lawson declares Congressional District 2 the “most flippable district in Florida.”

Former Leon County Democratic Executive Committee chair Jon Ausman managed former Congressman Pete Peterson’s, D-Marianna, campaign victory over Republican Congressman Bill Grant, R-Madison, 30 years ago and several statewide campaigns afterwards.

He’s battled with the Democrat congressional committee and PACs over fundraising and other campaign strategies on the candidate's behalf.

He said outside committees often have a different view of a race than what the candidate in it has and that may be at the heart of the tension between the Lawson camp and the DCCC, especially given the DCCC’s weak record with rural voters.

“While there are two large urban centers in the district — Panama City and Tallahassee — the ability to attract rural voters is likely to be decisive.  Al knows this and the DCCC's record there is abysmal,’ said Ausman.

James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com. Follow on him Twitter: @CallTallahassee

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida Al Lawson vs. Neal Dunn election: New poll shows GOP favored