Mar. 22—Signs of economic slowing surfaced in a state unemployment report released Wednesday showing Kern County's unemployment rate rose by more than one full percentage point in January even without a notable bump in the local labor force.

The jump to a seasonally unadjusted 8.1 percent unemployment from 6.8 in December outpaced a statewide increase in joblessness and surprised observers — mildly, at least — as several local sectors posted significant numbers of layoffs that couldn't easily be explained by historical patterns.

"This is worrisome," Cal State Bakersfield economist Richard Gearhart said in an email, referring to a 20 percent, month-over-month increase in new unemployment claims. "It does mean that businesses are getting a little worried about the future state of the economy" such as the risk of recession and expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, as it did by a quarter of a point Wednesday.

Professional and business services led the losses with 1,200 pink slips in January, a 4.4 percent change from December, according to the state Employment Development Department. Restaurants shed 700 jobs (2.8 percent); followed by construction (500 jobs, or 3.1 percent); the category of transportation, warehouse and utilities (500, 2.2 percent); and farming (500, -0.9 percent).

Positions in local education were down by 600, or 1.8 percent, though such fluctuations tend to be seasonal. Another sector that often issues layoffs in January, general merchandise stores, lost 500 positions, or 6.3 percent of its workforce in the county. The job classification of health care and social assistance shrank by 400 jobs, or 0.9 percent, according to the EDD.

January's unemployment rate came in lower than the 8.4 percent reported a year earlier, when the economy was still climbing out from the pandemic. Although it's common for the local jobless rate to rise in January — it did so every year between 2016 and 2020 — those increases typically reflected an influx of people joining or rejoining the local labor force.

"This recent month, however, is different," Gearhart wrote. "There is little change in the labor force, and so most of the increase in the unemployment rate is from NEW unemployment, rather than people out of the labor force looking for jobs now." Indeed, the EDD reported Kern's civil workforce was up only 0.3 percent in January, or 1,300 people.

State and federal joblessness also grew in January, but by smaller margins, and they remained well below Kern's unemployment rate. According to the EDD, California's unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent from 3.9 in December, while the nation rate increased to 3.9 percent in January from 3.3 a month before.

The size of January's local rate increase came as a surprise to Kelly Bearden, who as director of Cal State Bakersfield's Small Business Development Center hears often about conditions facing local entrepreneurs.

Business owners have been telling him of expectations a recession lurks six months off, he said, but it keeps not materializing. If anything, he hears how restaurants are actually hiring, not letting people go.

"The vibe that I'm getting out there," he said, "is that they're not under as much of a crunch as they were last year in trying to find employees."

Expectations lately at Bakersfield-based Safe 1 Credit Union are that the economy is headed for a slowdown, President and CEO David King said Wednesday. That's partly because of a somewhat unexplained blip in people falling behind in payments after years of steady loan performance owing to pandemic-era loan extensions, followed by widespread increases in deposits.

King's view was that, as the Fed keeps raising interest rates, businesses' borrowing costs will rise to the point growth becomes more restricted and job cuts become inevitable.

"Higher inflation is going to lead to high delinquencies and loan losses," he said.

Gearhart said retail, manufacturing and restaurants lead unemployment increases because those industries are more sensitive than others to cost uncertainties, regulatory drives and inflation — "and how consumers respond to these" forces.