State Senate shakeup already in the works

May 24—CONCORD — After the midterm elections, there will be a new state senator in at least eight of all 24 seats in the chamber.

Redistricting, a vacancy at the top and a volatile economy is a political potion that could create even more turnover once the voters have their say this fall.

"There's no question change is coming to the Senate with so many of my colleagues moving on to other opportunities," said Senate Democratic Leader Donna Soucy of Manchester. "Our job is to do all we can to turn the tide and put more Democrats in those seats."

Senate President Chuck Morse's departure to run for the U.S. Senate should put even more money and political horsepower behind keeping the Senate in GOP hands, said Greg Moore, state director of Americans for Prosperity and a former chief of staff to former Republican House Speaker Bill O'Brien.

Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, R-Wolfeboro, is the early favorite to replace Morse as Senate president if Republicans stay in charge.

Soucy would be the obvious choice to take back the presidency if Democrats beat the odds and take back the majority they held in 2018.

"It's human nature that a vacancy leads to more energy and activity. We're already seeing the Senate Republican PAC going all in to hold what they have and go for a few more pickups," Moore said. "Add redistricting to that mix, and it's a recipe for more new faces."

The candidate filing period doesn't open until June 1, so there's still time for more senators to step aside.

Most political observers conclude the current number is set with five Republicans and three Democrats who won't be seeking re-election.

That includes Morse, R-Salem, running for the U.S. Senate and Sen. Tom Sherman, D-Rye, leaving to mount a campaign for governor.

Manchester Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh, whose District 16 has become much more Republican through redistricting, is leaving to run for Executive Council, trying to unseat Manchester Republican Ted Gatsas.

"We need a state that puts people first and works to help communities meet their basic needs. Unfortunately, it is clear that we have an Executive Council that neglects their responsibility to the hard-working families of New Hampshire," Cavanaugh said.

Sen. Bob Giuda, R-Warren, is calling it a career after 12 years in the Legislature, half in the House and half in the Senate.

"I leave the State House knowing that I gave you my best efforts, working hard to keep New Hampshire the best state in the nation," Giuda said in a statement last week. "I'm proud to have fought for a clean and healthy New Hampshire that respects individual liberty and protects our freedoms; for a New Hampshire with a strong economy and low taxes; for a New Hampshire that is among the safest states in which to raise a family; and for a New Hampshire that takes care of the truly needy."

The other senators planning to retire are Deerfield Republican John Reagan, Canterbury Republican Harold French, Littleton Republican Erin Hennessey and Keene Democrat Jay Kahn.

Soucy said she's bullish that both Amherst Democrat Shannon Chandley and Brookline Democrat Melanie Levesque are already working to try to win back the Senate seats they lost in 2020.

"Those were two of the closest races in the entire state. We're going to make an even greater door-to-door effort than we did last time," Soucy said.

No-Trump factor

Moore said the absence of Donald Trump on the mid-term ballot will have an impact, potentially both good and bad for GOP candidates.

"We know Donald Trump underperformed in the suburbs and over-performed in rural areas. So someone like Chandley could have a harder time in a rematch with Milford Republican Gary Daniels in that suburban district," Moore said.

"Conversely with Erin Hennessey stepping aside, her District 1 in the North Country could shift to be a little Democratic-leaning. With the right candidate, it could be one the Democrats pick up."

Republicans believe with Sherman moving on, their odds are better to win District 24 with Hampton Falls businessman Lou Gargiulo ready to try again this fall.

Stratham Democratic Rep. Debra Altschiller has already announced, and liberal leaders view her as a solid candidate who could hold the seat.

Then there are always hopefuls who emerge that party leaders can't control.

This year's best example is former Claremont Mayor and GOP state Rep. Charlene Lovett, now running as a Democrat in District 8 to oppose Strafford Republican Ruth Ward.

In the past, Lovett supported restrictions on abortions, was a passionate defender of gun owner rights and backed restrictions on college students being able to vote here.

Those positions are radically different from liberal Jennifer Alford-Teaster, the Democratic nominee who ran against Ward in the last two elections.

Progressive activists are surely hard at work seeking one of their own to sign up to oppose Lovett.

"Primaries can be pivotal to victory or devastating. It's all about the candidates and how they all come out of that election, especially those who come up short," Moore said.

There are already GOP primaries for the seats Hennessey and Cavanaugh hold, and one is likely for French's seat.

"Finally, there's the other Trump factor. Could we see more candidates show up with allegiance to MAGA, looking to make a name for themselves in a midterm with the wind at the Republican backs?" Moore said. "It wouldn't surprise me."

klandrigan@unionleader.com