State's almond acreage retreats for second consecutive year
Nov. 21—New data suggests Kern's fourth highest-grossing crop may have become a little less attractive to growers and investors dealing with an oversupply of inventory.
A report produced by Sacramento-based Land IQ and released Tuesday by the Almond Board of California said the amount of farmland devoted to growing almonds in the state has now declined for two years in a row. It's the first time that has happened since at least 1995.
Maybe more significantly, almond acreage pulled out of production increased again this year — by well over a third — while new plantings were down almost as much in a year-over-year comparison, according to the report.
Despite all that, the amount of nut-producing acreage in the state actually increased a little, meaning that production totals are likely to grow until the trends of fewer new plantings and more orchard removals take full effect.
The figures are fresh evidence that almonds are no longer the hot commodity they were a decade ago, when prices were much stronger. But in another sense, the data points to a rebalancing of supply in response to global demand that has not kept up with in-state production.
ABC President and CEO Richard Waycott noted in a news release Tuesday that although this year set a new record of 1.37 million bearing acres, "going forward, the analysis points to a lowering of bearing acreage in 2024."
County-specific numbers show Kern is not immune to the statewide retreat. Land IQ reported a large decline in standing almond acreage attributed to planting activity in the county in 2021, the most recent year for which numbers were available. It said that year's total of 5,940 newly planted acres in Kern was 46% less than 2020's total, which was lower than any of the preceding three years.
The data does not necessarily reflect conditions in what has been a difficult year in the local almond business. Growers were already warning that the crop had become unprofitable, both because of rising costs and low prices, when Tropical Storm Hilary brought unseasonable rain during harvest time in August.
A letter the county's ag commissioner sent to a senior state official on Oct. 13 said that, based on grower surveys, 37% of Kern's almond crop appears to have been lost because of the storm. The letter estimated the total loss to county growers at more than $397 million.
Land IQ's report, based on a variety of measures including remote sensing and on-the-ground checks, indicates California's almond acreage this year fell by 4.8% to reach 1.56 million acres.
But it noted that bearing acreage, defined as land with trees planted in 2020 or earlier, rose 2.1% to hit 1.37 million acres.
Land IQ said non-bearing acres — orchards that were planted since 2020 — has decreased to 189,000 acres, a decrease of 35.7%.
The total amount of farmland removed from almond production in 2023 increased to 83,000 as of Aug. 31, or 37.4%, according to the company.
In July, expectations were that the state's almond crop would end up larger this year than last by about 1%. That 2.6 billion-pound estimate from the federal government reversed an earlier prediction that the total would decline this year to 4% below last year's total, the difference being that nuts that were headed for harvest last summer were simply bigger on average than last year's almonds.
