'Stealth Omicron' In NJ: Is The State In For A New COVID Wave?

NEW JERSEY — An offshoot of the omicron variant known as "stealth omicron" has begun wreaking havoc around the world. Omicron brought record COVID-19 cases and near-record hospitalizations to New Jersey, but state officials remain uncertain of how the reportedly more-contagious stealth subvariant may impact the Garden State.

Infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Jersey continue to see a steady decline. But different parts of the world have seen, at times, record-breaking outbreaks of the virus with the spread of the 'stealth' subvariant — formally called BA.2.

New Jersey officials first detected BA.2 in the state Jan. 26, and its presence has steadily grown. With state leaders hoping to move from the pandemic to greater normalcy, the stealth variant could provide New Jersey with its first true test in that approach.

It remains unknown whether Gov. Phil Murphy would re-institute a state of emergency or COVID-19 restrictions if stealth omicron causes a wave comparable to or greater than the original omicron variant.

"Governor Murphy will continue to make any COVID-19-related decisions based on science and data," said Alyana Alfaro, a spokesperson for the Office of the Governor. "While the state’s current COVID-19 metrics indicate that we can continue moving toward normalcy for our residents, the Murphy Administration will continue to evaluate COVID-19 metrics including hospital capacity and rate of transmission."

While New Jersey's COVID metrics have moved in a good direction since the omicron wave, other parts of the world have seen a different story. China's National Health Commission reported 1,337 locally transmitted cases over the past 24 hours Monday — the nation's largest outbreak since COVID killed thousands in Wuhan in early 2020.

The count includes 895 cases in the Jilan province, which borders the Korean Peninsula. South Korea, meanwhile, reported its deadliest day of the pandemic Tuesday, with 293 COVID fatalities.

COVID cases have dramatically increased in the United Kingdom in recent weeks, while Germany continues to break its pandemic records with more than 250,000 new cases a day.

The stealth subvariant appears 30 percent more transmissible than the original omicron variant, according to early evidence the World Health Organization cites. The WHO has found no difference in severity between the variants. Those who caught COVID from the omicron variant (BA.1) can get re-infected with the stealth subvariant (BA.2), but studies suggest infection from the former provides "strong protection" against re-infection from the latter.

New Jersey recently ended its last major COVID-19 regulations, removing mask mandates in K-12 schools, childcare settings and state-government buildings. Murphy held his final COVID-19 news briefing March 4.

"As coronavirus moves from pandemic to endemic and as we transition away from crisis management to a more normal way of life, it is the right time," Murphy said during the briefing.

The original omicron variant remains the most dominant in New Jersey, accounting for 90.6 percent of cases sequenced during the four weeks preceding Feb. 26. BA.2 was the second-most common during that came at 9.1 percent of cases. The stealth subvariant has doubled in proportion every two weeks in the Garden State, the New Jersey Department of Health told Patch.

Omicron's emergence shattered New Jersey's records for daily case totals. After previously never reporting more than 7,000 infections in one day, the Garden State reported five-digit case numbers every day from Dec. 23 to Jan. 21, peaking at 33,459 on Jan. 7.

The state's number of confirmed of suspected COVID patients in hospitals reached 6,089 on Jan. 11, approaching the state's pandemic highs. New Jersey also confirmed 100 or more COVID deaths on several days for the first time since 2020.

But it remains uncertain whether BA.2 will similarly impact New Jersey.

"The NJ Department of Health continues to monitor COVID-19 cases and variant trends, as we have throughout the pandemic," Dr. Tina Tan, the state health department's assistant commissioner, said via a spokesperson. "It’s difficult to predict how variants will evolve over time and what their specific impacts will be. It is hard to predict whether a surge in BA.2 will translate to increased hospitalizations/deaths."

In the present, New Jerseyans have reason for optimism about current COVID trends. The state's latest weekly COVID report shows "moderate" virus activity for most and "low" activity in three South Jersey counties. Only 469 COVID patients are hospitalized — the state's lowest figure since July — according to health department data.

New Jersey's high number of cases during the omicron wave also suggests many may have some protection against stealth omicron, Tan says. But several factors will determine how well New Jersey weathers BA.2.

"We expect new variants to continue to emerge here and around the world because we know that viruses constantly change," Tan said. "Variant characteristics, such as impact on vaccine effectiveness, severity of illness and transmissibility, depend on what mutations occur in the virus. And we have to rely on ongoing information collection, including viral sequencing, clinical data and observational analyses to understand what each variant’s nature might be."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on the Morristown Patch