Steven Johnson: Which Big 12 coaches could be on the hot seat?

The Big 12 is undergoing a massive shift with programs coming and powerhouses Oklahoma and Texas slated to leave after the upcoming season.

The specter of competing in a new conference is just the latest ingredient you can add to the pressure cooker that comes with the job of a college head football coach.

Which coaches across the conference should be worried that their seats are heating up in what should be a fascinating season with 14 teams in the league? Whether it be because of having newer head coaches or ones with tenure, most have nothing to worry about, but there are still a few situations to keep an eye on.

Here’s how safe each of the coaches should feel:

Scorching hot

Breakdown: Self-explanatory. It’ll take a minor miracle to put out this fire.

Neal Brown, West Virginia: Many thought Brown could’ve been fired last season. The Mountaineers have finished below .500 in three of Brown’s four seasons since 2019. West Virginia is expected to be at the bottom of the standings again. Brown might not finish the season.

Stuffy

Breakdown: The heat isn’t burning, but it’s starting to cause some sweat and make you uncomfortable.

Dana Holgorsen, Houston: There was actually some chatter that Holgorsen was on the hot seat after Houston finished 8-5 last season despite being a trendy pick to make a New Year’s Six bowl. He also went 4-8 and 3-5 in his first two seasons before a breakthrough 12-2 year in 2021. The mood of billionaire booster Tillman Fertitta also makes the situation potentially combustible.

Room temperature

Breakdown: Everything’s fine for now unless something crazy happens like the A.C. breaks.

Brent Venables, Oklahoma: Venables had a tough rookie season as the Sooners finished below .500 for the first time since 1998. The Sooners recruited extremely well and seem poised to bounce back. But another .500-ish season headed into the SEC could put Venables in trouble.

Cool

Breakdown: For various reasons, many of the coaches fall in this category. They’ve had enough success to withstand a bad season or two or are still relatively new on the job.

Dave Aranda, Baylor: The Bears disappointed last season but are still coming off a Big 12 championship in 2021. Aranda made a few staff changes including bringing in a new defensive coordinator to get the Bears back to playing elite defense.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: The Cowboys fell apart at the end of last season and Gundy has found himself in controversy the last few years, but he just won 12 games in 2021. He’s the longest tenured coach in the conference and has won 156 games.

Steve Sarkisian, Texas: Spirits are high in Austin with the Longhorns the heavy favorite to win the conference. There’s talent on both sides of the ball, high profile quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. If Texas underachieves it’ll be interesting, but Sark seems secure.

Matt Campbell, Iowa State: Iowa State took a major step back after losing stars like Brock Purdy, but that can be expected. Campbell led the Cyclones to five straight bowls before last season and signed an extension in 2021. He’s only leaving if he wants to finally take another job.

Gus Malzahn, UCF: The Golden Knights have won nine games in two straight seasons and made it to the American Championship Game last year. Malzahn’s done a good job of maintaining the program’s momentum. If UCF challenges this season, he could become a candidate for bigger job openings.

Kalani Sitake, BYU: The Cougars won double digit games in 2020 and 2021 while finishing 8-5 last year. Sitake will be given time to adjust to new Big 12 landscape even if BYU struggles initially.

Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati: Not only is Satterfield entering his first season after being hired by Louisville, he’s arriving at a time where the Bearcats have seen an exodus of talent to the NFL and transfer portal. Cincy has the resources, so Satterfield should receive enough time to build that talent base back up.

Ice cold

Breakdown: The coaches are relaxing stress free.

Sonny Dykes, TCU: Dykes led the Horned Frogs to arguably their greatest season in program history with an appearance in the national championship game and with eight NFL draft picks. The future is bright in Fort Worth. Dykes signed an extension at the end of the season.

Chris Klieman, Kansas State: Klieman led the Wildcats to a Big 12 championship and recently signed an extension through 2030. He is 30-20 through four seasons at Kansas State, the most wins through four seasons for any coach in school history.

Lance Leipold, Kansas: Leipold led the Jayhawks to their first bowl game in nearly 15 leading to a contract extension at the end of the regular season. He’s widely viewed as one of the top minds in the sport and Kansas is beginning to invest heavily in football.

Joey McGuire, Texas Tech: McGuire made some noise of his own in his first season with wins over Texas and Oklahoma. He’s recruited well and had his contract extended by a year after going 8-5, the program’s best record since 2013.