Stock watch: Who’s rising and who’s falling for Kentucky football after the opener

Sometimes the football cliché is correct.

“You don’t know exactly what you have until you play a game,” Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said last week prior to the Wildcats’ 44-14 season-opening win over Ball State. “You probably have a pretty good idea what your team looks like, whether there’s a big turnover or small number, whatever. You have a good idea, but you don’t know until you take the field for at least one game.

“I think opening games are always a touch different. The anticipation, the preparation. It’s been a long camp. I think a lot of people are anxious and ready to get going.”

All the extra excitement and uncertainty that comes with an opening game makes it difficult to judge whether Kentucky’s sometimes sluggish performance against Ball State was a sign of things to come or simply a product of nerves and inexperience.

Stoops was quick to cite another football cliché after the win — “We’re going to get a lot better between week one and two,” he said — but the Ball State game at least provides an opportunity to recalibrate some expectations after more than a month of preseason chatter.

The weekly Kentucky football stock watch takes a look at what went right and what went wrong in the 2023 season opener.

RISING

Ray Davis: There was no shortage of preseason questions about how Kentucky’s offense would operate without a workhorse running back like Chris Rodriguez or Benny Snell. The common theory was that while Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis would start, the Wildcats would go with a committee approach with as many as four running backs seeing regular carries.

Not so fast.

For one game at least, Davis looked every bit the part of a workhorse back capable of gaining tough yards and hitting the occasional home run.

“I thought he had some really impressive runs, and not always the longer ones,” Stoops said. “… They made a couple of misses, and just getting those extra 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 yards sometimes is a big deal. We know he’s physical and tough and has good vision, but also he can also make people miss.”

Davis finished his Kentucky debut with 14 carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns. He tallied three runs of at least 20 yards. Davis scored in a short-yardage situation from 2 yards out and on a 30-yard dash to ice the win.

Defensive front seven: Outside linebacker J.J. Weaver and defensive tackle Deone Walker received most of the preseason hype for the Wildcats’ front seven, but against Ball State that duo had plenty of help.

Middle linebacker Trevin Wallace looked like Kentucky’s best player with 12 tackles, two tackles for loss and one-half sack. He started the play that resulted in Jalen Geiger’s 69-yard fumble return for a touchdown and combined with defensive tackle Kahlil Saunders to end a third quarter drive with a third-down sack.

“I thought he did obviously a really nice job,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “Made a ton of plays flying around. Made a ton of tackles — and big tackles in big moments. A couple of third-down stops that we needed.”

The defensive line consistently caused trouble for Ball State. Saunders, who defensive line coach Anwar Stewart called the group’s “X factor” during preseason camp, shined with 1 1/2 sacks.

Senior Octavious Oxendine found himself in the backfield multiple times but also highlighted one area Stoops said still needs work.

“Hate to dwell on the negative, but sometimes I want to see guys finish,” Stoops said. “I want them to finish plays.”

Special teams: When wide receiver Tayvion Robinson appeared to lose a first quarter punt in the sun before it bounced to the UK 6-yard line, there were probably at least a few fans at Kroger Field thinking “here we go again” in regard to the Wildcats’ special teams units.

However, outside of that play and an illegal formation penalty on a punt, the special teams were close to perfect in the first game under new coordinator Jay Boulware.

For the second consecutive season, Barion Brown returned a kickoff for a touchdown in the opening game. Punter Wilson Berry averaged 47 yards on two punts. But the biggest special teams headline belonged to kicker Alex Raynor, a Georgia Southern transfer who was 3 for 3 on field goals and 5 for 5 on extra points.

“I think everybody enjoyed seeing the field goal kicker kick it through the uprights, right?” Stoops said. “Three probably felt like seven on the opening possession for us, so that was a good thing.”

Two of Raynor’s field goals came from 46 yards. His career long at Georgia Southern was 47, but he told reporters after the game he is comfortable anywhere within 55 yards.

“I think that will come,” he said. “Try and hit the same ball every time. You’ll see.”

FALLING

Big Blue Wall rebuild: First the good news for Kentucky’s offensive line.

Quarterback Devin Leary was sacked only once, and he showed impressive poise to keep plays alive when facing pressure on a few other plays. The run game was a net positive.

Unfortunately, the reshuffling of positions at the interior offensive line spots designed to boost the overall production of the unit did not appear to pan out in the opener. Even before left guard Kenneth Horsey was sidelined by an injury, the majority of the errors on the line appeared to come from the interior positions.

The play of center Jager Burton, who started at left guard last season and was snapping for the first time in a game, was particularly concerning.

“We definitely saw some low ones at times,” offensive coordinator Liam Coen said. “A couple cadence issues. That’s the operation we’re talking about. Clean operation, clean huddle, break, snaps, cadence, those are the things that ultimately if you don’t control those or don’t do those at a high level just running a play is difficult.

“So, I was a little disappointed with that for sure.”

It would be fair to expect significant improvement from Burton as he gains more experience at center, but Kentucky needs the position solidified before the start of Southeastern Conference play.

“He’s got a lot on his plate with snapping and then doing his assignment,” Stoops said. “So, it’s tough. That’s his first time doing it. He is going to be a really good player, and there were some moments that were tough for him today. He’ll improve. Experience helps.”

Horsey missing significant time would be another blow to the offensive line depth. Guard Ben Christman and tackle Nik Hall were already lost for the season due to injury.

West Virginia transfer Dylan Ray filled in for Horsey at left guard. In the immediate aftermath of the win, both Stoops and Coen said they thought Ray held his own.

Next game

Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky

When: 3 p.m. Saturday

Live video broadcast: SEC Network Plus (online only)

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Records: Eastern Kentucky 0-1, Kentucky 1-0

Series: Kentucky leads 5-0

Last meeting: Kentucky won 27-16 on Sept. 9, 2017, in Lexington

Mark Stoops’ frustration shows what he truly thinks of his Kentucky football team

‘I don’t want to dwell on the negative, but ...’ Everything Mark Stoops said after UK’s win.

After summer of hype, Devin Leary promises improvement to come after Kentucky debut

What Kentucky football’s season-opening win over Ball State means for the Wildcats

A little disappointed in the UK offense in Liam Coen’s second debut? He was, too.