What’s in store for the Miami Heat this offseason? Here’s a rundown of things to know

Miami Heat coaches, players and staff exited the NBA’s Disney bubble on Monday after finishing two wins short of a championship.

As the NBA takes a collective deep breath after spending three months in a quarantine setting to complete the 2019-20 season amid the COVID-19 pandemic, there are still more questions than answers when it comes to the league calendar for the next year.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said recently the league is targeting January as the start of next season, but there are some who have said it could begin as late as March. Once that start date is determined, it will be easier to work backward to set other important offseason dates.

The hope is the NBA won’t have to return to a bubble next season and fans can return to arenas in some capacity.

While the start date for next season is still not set, Miami has some important decisions to make between now and then. Here’s a Heat offseason guide on what comes next:

Miami Heat offseason primer: Who’s available, what targets are realistic and what’s next

What’s the next big event for the Heat on the NBA’s fluid offseason calendar?

The 2020 NBA draft, which is scheduled for Nov. 18. While it looks like that date will hold, the league notes “the date remains subject to change as circumstances warranted.”

The Heat holds the 20th pick in the first round, and it’s not allowed to trade the selection because its 2021 first-round pick was already dealt as part of the 2015 trade for Goran Dragic. The NBA doesn’t allow teams to be without consecutive future first-round picks.

But the Heat could make a pre-arranged trade to draft a player and immediately deal him to another team.

The last five players selected at No. 20: Matisse Thybulle in 2019, Josh Okogie in 2018, Harry Giles in 2017, Caris LeVert in 2016 and Delon Wright in 2015.

The Heat does not own a second-round pick in this year’s draft.

When will free agency begin, and who are the Heat’s free agents this offseason?

There is currently no set date for the opening of free agency, but it usually begins about one week after the draft. That timeline would push the start of free agency to late November, but it could begin even later than that.

Jae Crowder, Dragic, Udonis Haslem, Solomon Hill, Derrick Jones Jr. and Meyers Leonard are Miami’s six impending unrestricted free agents. The Heat owns Bird rights with all six players, which allows NBA teams to exceed the salary cap in order to re-sign their own free agents.

Are there any players on the Heat’s roster who have an option in their contract to enter free agency this offseason?

Yes, one. Center Kelly Olynyk has until the day before the start of free agency, a date that is still undetermined, to decide on his $12.2 million player option for the 2020-21 season. The expectation is that Olynyk will opt-in to the final season of his contract with the Heat for next season because of the uncertainty surrounding the salary cap (less cap space is expected to be available around the NBA) amid the pandemic.

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How much salary-cap space will the Heat have this offseason?

The league and union haven’t determined next season’s salary cap and luxury tax line, but nobody would be surprised if this past season’s numbers ($109 million cap, $132.6 million tax line) are used next season because of the pandemic’s impact on league revenue. So here’s where the Heat would stand in this scenario:

Assuming Olynyk opts-in to the final season of his contract and the Heat keeps the player it drafts this year, Miami will have about $86 million committed to 10 players for next season — that includes a $5.2 million waive-and-stretch cap hit for Ryan Anderson that’s still on the books.

That means the Heat can create up to $21 million in cap space, including cap holds, if it renounces the rights to its six impending free agents.

But the more likely scenario is the Heat follows a different route, instead taking advantage of Bird rights in an effort to keep the core of this season’s roster intact.

With Miami owning Bird rights on its six impending free agents, the real question is: How much room does the Heat have below the luxury tax line?

Miami stands about $46 million from the projected tax line. That’s the amount of money the Heat has to bring back its free agents, but it’s important to note the team is expected to be hesitant to offer any guaranteed money for the 2021-22 season as it hopes to preserve 2021 max-level cap space.

Miami also probably wants to keep enough room under the tax line to use the non-taxpayer $9.3 million mid-level salary exception, which can be used to bring in an outside free agent even if the Heat is over the cap after retaining a few of its own free agents.

The Heat also has a $3.6 million biannual exception and a $7.5 million trade exception. None of the exceptions can be combined.

Are there any players on the Heat’s roster still waiting to have their contracts guaranteed by the team for next season?

Heat guard Kendrick Nunn and forward Duncan Robinson enter the offseason with non-guaranteed $1.7 million salaries for next season.

Considering Nunn started in each of his 67 regular-season appearances and Robinson started 68 of the 73 regular-season games he appeared in last season, this won’t be a hard decision for the Heat. Both players are expected to have their salaries for next season guaranteed.

Robinson will have $1 million of his $1.7 million salary for next season guaranteed if he’s on the roster two weeks after the start of free agency, and the remainder of his salary will be guaranteed if he’s on the roster on the first day of the regular season.

Nunn will have $300,000 of his $1.7 million salary for next season guaranteed if he’s on the roster on the first day of the regular season. The remainder of his salary will be guaranteed if he’s still on the roster at some point during the season on a date the NBA has not set yet.

Can the Heat offer an extension to any of its players this offseason?

The Heat can extend the rookie-scale contract of center Bam Adebayo until the day before the start of the regular season.

This is a complicated issue because Adebayo deserves an extension, and the Heat obviously wants the 23-year-old All-Star center to be part of its long-term future. But extending Adebayo this offseason would prevent Miami from having max-level cap space in 2021.

Instead, the Heat could wait until Adebayo becomes a restricted free in 2021 to sign him to a new contract. This would allow Miami to not only keep Adebayo, but also have the necessary cap space to add another max player to the roster via free agency.

Nunn, Robinson and Olynyk are also eligible for extensions, but the Heat is not expected to make such an offer in order to maximize 2021 cap space.

What about the Heat’s two-way contract players?

The Heat has to decide whether to make qualifying offers to its two two-way contract players, Kyle Alexander and Gabe Vincent, in order to make them a restricted free agent and gain the right to match offers from other teams.

A qualifying offer doesn’t necessarily mean Alexander and/or Vincent would be part of the Heat’s 15-man roster next season. The qualifying offer could turn into another two-way contract unless Miami is forced to match standard contract offers those players receive as restricted free agents.