Storm surge, beach erosion expected with Nicole's arrival

Nov. 10—With the late-season Hurricane Nicole already flexing its muscle Wednesday in the Golden Isles, Glynn County and Brunswick officials are bracing for high storm surge, flooding, beach erosion and strong winds throughout Thursday.

Nicole is an unusually large hurricane system that will cut a broad swath in its path as it sweeps up Florida and crosses into Georgia well west of here some time Thursday night, said Ben Nelson, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, Florida. With a wind field extending nearly 500 miles from its center, tropical storm conditions are likely to be felt in Glynn County throughout the day, Nelson said.

"That's the big headline," Nelson told The News. "Nicole has a tropical storm force wind field of 460 miles. That's almost 500 miles across. That is what is really going to churn up the water here."

Nicole could bring a 2 to 4 foot storm surge to Glynn County, along with flooding in low-lying areas during high tide cycles, Nelson said. Waves of up to 10 feet are possible along the coast, Nelson said.

Tropical storm force sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph are expected in the Golden Isles beginning after dawn Thursday, Nelson said. Wind gusts of 60 mph are possible.

Nicole could drop 2 to 4 inches of rain on the area. The storm will create conditions for tornados, especially during passing rain bands Thursday evening, Nelson said.

"There is concern with a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet during a couple of high tide cycles (today) and maybe even Friday morning. And we're still looking at the potential for 10-foot breakers in the surf and lot of beach erosion up and down the coast."

The Glynn County Emergency Operations Center will be activated at 7 a.m. Thursday at the Pate building at 1725 Reynolds St. Although public schools are closed, county and city government offices will remain open, it was announced Wednesday during a briefing at the Pate Building.

County officials urge residents to use caution during Nicole, especially while driving. Motorists should not risk driving into obviously flooded streets.

"If you see a flooded area, turn around," Glynn County EMA Director Andrew Leanza said. "Turn around, don't drown."

Nicole is expected to make landfall before dawn Thursday around Cape Canaveral, Fla., possibly strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the coast. It is expected to make a northward sweep across Florida and maintain tropical storm force as it crosses into Georgia west of here around Valdosta by Thursday night, Nelson said.

That puts the Golden Isles in the right hand quadrant of Nicole's center and in the path of tropical storm force winds from the southwest, he said. County officials expressed concern that those steady southwest winds will hold inland waters, increasing the potential for flooding.

"Even though it's tracking west of here, we're on that east side," Glynn County Manager Bill Fallon said. "That southeast direction of the storm is going to keep water here, so be prepared for water in those areas that are prone to flooding. If you flooded in previous storms, you will probably experience flooding."

There is greater risk of flooding during the high tide cycles, especially Thursday and possibly Friday morning, Nelson said. Thursday's high tides on St. Simons Island are at 9:12 a.m. and 9:36 p.m., and Friday's high tides are at 9:50 a.m. and 10:18 p.m. Tides are forecast to reach their peak in Brunswick at 10:02 a.m. and 10:28 p.m. Thursday.

As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, Nicole was out of the Bahamas and churning west toward the Florida coast at 13 mph with sustained winds of 70 mph. Storms reach hurricane strength at 74 mph.

Brisk and steady winds prevailed under overcast skies throughout the day Wednesday across the Golden Isles, a forewarning of Hurricane Nicole's size and scope. Glynn County was experiencing sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph already on Wednesday with gusts of 35 to 40 mph, the weather service said. The brunt of the storm will be felt here throughout Thursday, Nelson affirmed.

Nelson likened Nicole to 2017's Hurricane Irma, which crossed into Georgia far west of here but still brought heavy flooding to the Golden Isles during a storm surge on a high tide. Nelson cautioned residents to be alert for tornado warnings.

The rain should begin tapering off Thursday night, he said.

"We're going to have enough wind shear, which is an indicator of a few tornado formations in our rain bands, particularly (Thursday) afternoon as that big rain band rotates north," Nelson said.

As of Wednesday afternoon, there was no decision on whether the state Department of Transportation will close the Sidney Lanier Bridge. However, based on previous contingencies, it is very likely the bridge will be closed Thursday,

Fallon said at Wednesday's briefing GDOT typically closes the bridge when sustained winds reach tropical storm force of 39 mph.

"With 40 to 50 mph winds, I anticipate the Sidney Lanier Bridge will close," Fallon said.

Anticipated tropical storm force winds also prompted school officials to cancel classes Thursday. Schools already are closed Friday for Veteran's Day.

"I don't have much of a choice but to close school (Thursday)," school superintendent Scott Spence said.