Storms coming to New Mexico, but white Christmases will be hit or miss

Mike Easterling, Farmington Daily Times
·4 min read
6

A pair of storm systems poised to move through New Mexico this weekend will provide some areas with a significant chance for a white Christmas this year, but most areas are more likely to just see a wet Christmas, forecasters say.

Clay Anderson, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said an upper-level low that was gathering in the Pacific Ocean off the California coast earlier in the week should be moving through New Mexico by Friday.

“Precipitation is almost a guarantee,” he said. “The problem is, it’s not going to be particularly cold.”

That means most of that moisture is likely to fall as rain, not snow, except for higher elevations, he said. Anderson said Farmington is almost certain to see rain from the storm system, but communities as close by as Aztec, with its slightly higher elevation, could begin to see powder. By the time the disturbance has moved eastward through Chama, Taos, Red River, Angel Fire, Los Alamos and Santa Fe, he said, it almost certainly will be dropping snow instead of rain.

“I would say the odds of Farmington proper seeing a white Christmas are low,” Anderson said.

While the chances of the Farmington area experiencing a white Christmas this year are not high, the odds are better for higher-elevation locations in San Juan County, according to National Weather Service forecasters.
While the chances of the Farmington area experiencing a white Christmas this year are not high, the odds are better for higher-elevation locations in San Juan County, according to National Weather Service forecasters.

But a second, colder system rolling in from the Pacific Northwest on Christmas Eve could change that, he acknowledged. That system will cause temperatures to plummet.

“That one has a higher probability of producing snow in Farmington, but, right now, the track is not favorable,” he said, though he added the storm’s direction could change as it draws closer.

Anderson said the first system could yield snow for a few locations in southern New Mexico, including such high-elevation communities as Ruidoso and Cloudcroft. But towns such Socorro almost certainly will experience rain instead, he said.

“One ingredient that we’re missing that we often get this time of year is a back-door cold front that comes down the plains and comes in from the north and east,” he said. “We don’t have that, unfortunately.”

The Farmington area hasn't seen a white Christmas since 2015, but two storm systems poised to move through the Four Corners region this weekend could end that streak.
The Farmington area hasn't seen a white Christmas since 2015, but two storm systems poised to move through the Four Corners region this weekend could end that streak.

The low probability of snow for most parts of New Mexico is good news for those who plan to travel for the holidays, Anderson noted. He said he expected that the only parts of the state where travel could be hazardous this weekend will be on Interstate 40 west of Albuquerque and on U.S. Highway 550 at the continental divide west of Cuba.

“Those two spots could be problematic Friday night into Saturday,” he said.

White Christmases through the years

A graphics presentation on the website operated by the National Weather Service’s Albuquerque office demonstrates that white Christmases have been a not-uncommon occurrence for many parts of the state over the past few decades.

Using data collected between 1981 and 2010, meteorologists produced a map of New Mexico showing the historical probability of a given location in the state having more than 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. Not surprisingly, the state’s higher-elevation communities had a greater probability, with Santa Fe, Los Alamos and Raton leading the way.

A second graphic, based on data from a much longer period, presents the chances of six communities across the state having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. Red River (79%) and Chama (73%) were at the top of the list, followed by Gallup (27%), Clayton (9%), Roswell (5%) and Albuquerque (3%).

A wet Christmas is more likely than a white Christmas for many residents of New Mexico this year, forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Albuquerque say.
A wet Christmas is more likely than a white Christmas for many residents of New Mexico this year, forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Albuquerque say.

A series of other charts depicts snow cover on the ground on Dec. 25 every year since 2004 across the state. Surprisingly, Farmington has experienced several white Christmases in that time, though the city’s residents haven’t awakened to snow-covered ground on Dec. 25 since 2015. Farmington also experienced white Christmases in 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008 and 2006.

At the other corner of New Mexico, Roswell has experienced only three white Christmases in that time – 2011, 2009 and 2004.

Bosque del Apache lays claim to the snowiest Christmas Day on record in New Mexico, as it saw a whopping 16.7 inches of powder on Dec. 25, 1987. Clayton received 7.4 inches in 1939, while Raton and Santa Fe drew 5 inches in 1973 and 1962, respectively. Folks in Roswell saw 4.3 inches of snow on Christmas in 1987. The snowiest Christmas in Farmington history came in 1997 when the city saw 2 inches of powder.

According to the weather service presentation, temperatures across the state can vary wildly on Christmas. Clovis set New Mexico’s Christmas Day high record in 1919 with a scorching 91 degrees, while Dulce posted a record-setting low of minus 42 degrees in 1924.

Mike Easterling can be reached at 505-564-4610 or measterling@daily-times.com. Support local journalism with a digital subscription: http://bit.ly/2I6TU0e.

This article originally appeared on Farmington Daily Times: New Mexico's higher elevations likely to see Christmas snow this year