'Like a strong nor'easter': Hurricane Lee set for close approach to Cape Cod

It's time for Cape Codders to get ready for what might be a wicked rough stretch of weather this weekend.

According to Wednesday's 11 a.m. Hurricane Lee discussion from the National Hurricane Center, "Confidence is increasing in the forecast track … there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday."

Reached by phone on Wednesday at the National Weather Service Boston/Norton office, meteorologist Kevin Cadima put it this way: "This is going to be like a strong nor'easter for the Cape and Islands."

How much wind and rain can Cape Cod expect from Hurricane Lee?

Cadima said the Outer Cape could see wind gusts in the neighborhood of 70 to 80 mph, with slightly less wind toward the Cape Cod Canal. Rain totals of one to three inches are also possible.

Because of the north winds associated with the storm, Cadima said coastal flooding will be a concern, especially on the Cape Cod Bay side, particularly for the high tide just after midnight, early on Saturday morning.

Tree damage and power outages are also a possibility with high winds, said Cadima, perhaps exacerbated by the fact that most trees still have full foliage.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center discussion included this: "There is an increasing risk of wind, coastal flooding, and rain impacts from Lee in portions of New England and Atlantic Canada beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend.  Watches will likely (be) required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. Due to Lee's large size, hazards will extend well away from the center, and there will be little to no significance on exactly where the center reaches the coast."

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Wednesday's 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center places the Outer Cape at the western edge of a cone that shows the probable path of Lee's center. This update shows the center of the hurricane taking aim for the northeastern Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia, Canada area.

When will wind and rain from Hurricane Lee hit Cape Cod?

According to the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service Boston/Norton office, recent "deterministic and ensemble guidance has depicted a westward shift toward (southern New England) with the center of Lee." But "none of these (models) depict a landfall in southern New England," according to the forecast discussion.

Here's what the timing could look like, according to the National Weather Service Boston/Norton office forecast discussion: "Current thinking is that winds begin to ramp up Friday afternoon and peak Friday night/early Saturday. Again, there is low confidence in (the) exact timing of the winds and the rain, but Friday night and Saturday would be most likely if we do get a close enough pass."

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"Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents" are also in play for the waters around Cape Cod, according to the National Hurricane Center. According to the Boston/Norton National Weather Service office, "This will result in wave heights as high as 15-20 feet on our outer eastern waters by Saturday with 10-15-foot waves for the inner waters."

How to prepare for a hurricane on Cape Cod

In the storm prep department, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests that folks have "enough non-perishable food, water and medicine to last each person in your family a minimum of 3 days (store a longer than 3-day supply of water, if possible)." Because of possible power outages, it's a good idea to keep extra cash on hand and have a good supply of battery-powered flashlights and a radio. For cellphones, a solar or portable crank charger could be very handy.

Eric Williams, when not solving Curious Cape Cod mysteries, writes about a variety of ways to enjoy the Cape, the weather, wildlife and other subjects. Contact him at ewilliams@capecodonline.com. Follow him on Twitter: @capecast.

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This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Hurricane Lee forecast for Cape Cod: Strong wind, other hazards likely