A strong winter storm is headed to Tampa Bay this weekend. Here’s what to expect.
Get set for some rocky weather that will likely start late Saturday.
Meteorologists say a winter storm that will rake the Tampa Bay area this weekend will feel like a tropical system, despite not being awarded a name like many summertime disturbances.
Experts are drawing comparisons to a no-name storm that whacked South Florida last month and drenched some coastal areas with more than a foot of rain. This weekend’s gulf system is expected to be much milder, with rainfall estimates topping out at about 4 inches.
Still, forecasters expect strong thunderstorms at the very least and haven’t ruled out possible flooding and tornadoes.
The expected weather has resulted in some holiday events being canceled or postponed.
Earlier this week, winds pushing offshore picked up and tides receded a foot or 2 below normal around the Tampa Bay area. Forecasters say these low tides could be replaced by water levels up to 4 feet higher than usual as winds shift.
The worst of the storm is expected to begin Saturday evening and persist into Sunday. Possibly damaging winds should peak on Sunday with sustained winds of up to 25 mph and gusts around 40 mph or higher, according to the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.
Why doesn’t this storm have a name?
Senior hurricane specialist Robbie Berg said the presence of a cold front in the system is the reason why a winter storm like this one goes unnamed. Meteorologists call these storms a “cold-core system” or an “extratropical storm.”
“So even though some of the impacts could be very similar to a tropical system, because of that quality, it’s not a system that gets a name like a tropical cyclone,” Berg said.
This frontal boundary is also the reason Tampa Bay will see cooler weather next week. Once the skies clear Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop into the 40s at night.
How common are these winter storms?
Austen Flannery, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office, says the formation of winter storms like this one hinges on longer-term weather trends.
During a strong El Niño winter — like the current one — unnamed systems nearing tropical-storm strength are more common. But because there can be up to a seven-year wait between El Niño cycles, winters like these are somewhat rare.
The last one started in 2018 and carried into the following year.
That season was considered a weak El Niño, and its effects were minimal in Florida. That wasn’t the case elsewhere. A December 2018 storm fueled by the weather pattern hit the Carolinas with snow and ice, killing three people.
Because the current El Niño — which is much stronger than the previous one — has lasted into the winter, experts say to expect more storms like these over the coming months.
“These are systems that we don’t deal with a lot routinely here in Florida,” Flannery said. “We don’t see that many winters like this, so we go pretty long stretches of time without seeing systems like this.”
What should you expect?
Whether a storm is named or not, people should still pay close attention to local weather alerts this weekend, Berg said.
“We provide names to tropical systems and hurricanes mainly to increase attention because those can be some of the more severe-type storms,” he said. “But that doesn’t lessen the impact that other types of weather systems may have.”
Here is a list of current weather advisories for Tampa Bay:
Coastal flood watch
Gale warning for offshore waters
Small craft advisory for nearshore waters and bays
