With the strongest squads and best shooters, Wasps and Manchester Thunder will make the Superleague final
So now we know our semi-finalists. After a crazy regular season that went down to the wire it will be Wasps at home to Loughborough Lightning and Team Bath who travel to Manchester Thunder.
On paper Wasps look the favourites, having finished top of the regular season table. Their semi-final against Lightning is a rematch of the last two grand finals, which is a good thing because it means a new team is guaranteed make the grand final this year.
Loughborough are the danger team in the competition because they have consistently improved as the season has gone on. What is frightening is the number of goals they are scoring: 67 in both of their last two games.
The question that raises is, can anybody stop Mary Cholhok? Wasps will need a very specific plan to target her. If they can do that I don’t think they will have any problems, but they need to be wary as there is so much grit and determination in that Loughborough side.
Head coach Sara Bayman is a winner and she has instilled this never-say-die attitude into her team. They believe they can win early ball, score lots of goals and will always fight to stay in the game. When they have lost, all the players have taken responsibility and come out with a ruthless performance the following week.
They will go into this semi as underdogs and they will love it. It’s a far easier position to be in than Wasps, who will feel the pressure as defending champions going for a third consecutive title with the expectation that they should win.
Wasps will also have that little nagging doubt in their mind because of the one-goal defeat Lightning inflicted on them earlier in the season. It just means even if Wasps are five or six goals up in the last quarter, they won’t feel comfortable because of what happened last time.
It’s hard not to listen to those triggers. If that scenario plays out again and I was the opposition coach I’d be saying to my team: ‘We’ve got this, we know we can come back’. At this stage it’s all about the mind games.
Ultimately, I think Wasps will be fine if they can handle Cholhok because of the match up in the Loughborough defence. Wasps should feel comfortable they can outscore Loughborough and will be planning to do just that.
Bath go into the other semi-final having beaten Thunder twice in the league this season and full of confidence. They played exceptionally well when smashing Pulse last weekend and they will think they can reach their first grand final since 2013. That mental side in a semi-final is so important.
I’m intrigued to see how Thunder approach the match because they are coming in to this off the back of three below par performances. Defeats against Loughborough and Bath, followed by a closely fought win against Storm is not the kind of form you want heading into the biggest game of the season and I wonder whether these last few matches will have knocked their confidence.
My main point of concern for them now is their shooting circle. Joyce Mvula and Kathryn Turner are what you presume would be their strongest line up, but over the past couple of weeks they have chopped and changed with Cardwell getting the nod at goal shooter against Bath and then replacing Turner after 15 minutes against Storm at goal attack.
It just seems strange at this point in the season to be messing around that much with your shooting circle. Maybe head coach Karen Greig is giving Cardwell an opportunity before England’s World Cup selection is made. Maybe she doesn’t feel the players are giving her what she’s asked, but at this stage you would expect a top-four side to have their line up nailed.
It certainly wasn’t pretty in their final match against Storm, where they only won by five after dragging it back from a bad first quarter. It was a real seesaw game. I’m certain we’re not seeing the Thunder we saw at the start of the season, but they still won.
That’s why my head still says Thunder will do it. Bath, when they put it all together, can beat anybody and win this competition but they are still not showing the consistency I think it takes to win a championship.
Where Wasps have the strongest squad in the first semi, Thunder have it in the second. Both sides have so much experience that they should be able to step out in a semi-final and know it’s business as usual.
I think Mvula and Rachel Dunn are the two best shooters in the league this season and both will be looking for World Cup call-ups. They will have a big part to play for their teams on Saturday.
Wasps against Thunder is what I started with in October and is still my final prediction, but semi-finals have an interesting way of playing out when it comes to people handling the pressure. And if any season is going to throw us an upset then this is the one to do it.
Sky Sports is the only place to watch the Netball Superleague semi-finals on Saturday May 11. Watch from 4.45pm on Sky Sports Action and Sky Sports Mix for Wasps v Loughborough Lightening and 6.45pm for Manchester Thunder v Team Bath.
