Study: How police presence affects crime in Denver’s 78 neighborhoods
DENVER (KDVR) — Researchers with the University of Colorado Boulder, alongside other colleges, published a study this month studying 78 Denver-area neighborhoods and their respective crime rates.
The study, published in the journal Criminology, found that crime increased across many Denver neighborhoods after police “cut their presence in half in 2020,” compared with 2016-19 levels. On average, property and violent crime reports increased 27.1% and 14.3% in the city and county of Denver after police scaled back their presence.
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“The median neighborhood experienced four additional violent crimes and 70 additional property crimes,” the study stated. “But the impact of police pullback varied greatly depending on the neighborhood.”
On average, pedestrian stops declined by 83%, vehicle stops by 85%, drug arrests by 76% and disorder arrests by 62% in Denver neighborhoods. These reductions primarily occurred after COVID-19 set in and after the May 25, 2020, death of George Floyd.
According to the study, violent crime increased in 55 neighborhoods and decreased in 23, with Central Park seeing the largest increase. Property crime increased in 70 neighborhoods and decreased in only eight.
Five Points, a historically Black neighborhood, saw the largest increase in property crime, while Auraria saw the largest decrease.
Contrary to the researchers’ published expectations, a reduction in pedestrian stops was more strongly associated with violent crime increases in more affluent neighborhoods. The study found that officers made about 32,000 fewer traffic stops in 2020 and the reduction had a much smaller relationship with changes in crime than pedestrian stops.
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For the study, researchers measured “proactive policing” through the number of pedestrian stops, vehicle stops, and disorder and drug arrests. This 2020 data was compared to 2016-19 trends. Researchers separated 2020 into three periods and evaluated police activity and crime incidents:
During the first 10 weeks of 2020
The following 11 weeks, when Denver declared a state of emergency for COVID-19
The final 31 weeks, following Floyd’s murder and the ensuing social unrest
The study also examined how Denver’s 78 neighborhoods experienced changes in policing and crime rates differently.
“Normally when there are studies on policing, they’re interested in city-to-city comparisons. Those are important to do, but they really mask the inequality of violence and policing that communities within cities experience,” co-author David Pyrooz, a CU Boulder sociology professor and a fellow at the university’s Institute of Behavioral Science, said in a CU Boulder release.
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One trend that surprised researchers involved neighborhoods with higher concentrations of poverty and disadvantage, as they tend to experience more crime, and thus higher levels of police activity. However, researchers did not predict that as police pulled back, these neighborhoods would not experience the greatest increase in crime in 2020.
“Findings like these are important as we continue to debate the appropriate role of policing in the 21st century,” lead author Justin Nix, distinguished associate professor at the University of Nebraska Omaha, said in the release.
“That is, our study suggests a certain baseline amount of policing is necessary to ensure public safety, but at the same time, less policing doesn’t always equate to more crime,” Nix said.
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This could be related to baseline levels used for the study, according to the researchers. They found that affluent neighborhoods in Denver had lower crime levels to start, so any spike experienced appeared larger.
The neighborhoods with higher crime also had higher levels of policing to begin with, so more pullback was needed before it would be detectable, according to the study authors.
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