Subtropical Storm Nicole raises concerns of flooding in Polk County

The prospect of a rare November tropical storm comes just as flood waters from Hurricane Ian have largely receded in Polk County.

In an advisory issued Monday at 11 a.m., the National Weather Service forecast that Subtropical Storm Nicole would turn westward or west-southwestward as early as Tuesday. The agency’s cone of probability showed the storm potentially crossing near Lakeland by midday on Thursday.

Paul Close, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin, said current forecasts suggest that most of Central Florida will receive two to four inches of rain, with up to six inches possible in some places.

As of Monday morning, the NWS predicted that the first effects of the storm would be seen in Central Florida late Wednesday or early Thursday, Close said, with the heaviest rain likely coming on Thursday.

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Nicole had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as of Monday morning, according to the NWS. The agency had issued a hurricane watch for the east coast of Florida, from Hallandale Beach near Fort Lauderdale north to the Brevard/Volusia County border, and for Lake Okeechobee.

Parts of Polk County received 10 to 15 inches of rain from Hurricane Ian, which passed through the area on Sept. 29 after making landfall near Fort Myers. The hurricane caused significant flooding along the Peace River, particularly in Bartow and Fort Meade.

Will emergency shelters open in Polk?

Polk County had not made plans to open emergency shelters as of Monday morning. Mianne Nelson, the county’s communications director, said she had received no notice of any emergency operations plans.

Paul Womble, Polk County’s Emergency Operations Director, said the county did not anticipate opening hurricane shelters as of Monday afternoon. He described the county’s mode as “getting ready to get ready.”

Womble said his office is participating in twice-a-day conference calls with the Florida Emergency Operations Center and the National Weather Service. He said the forecast called for Nicole to be “primarily a rainfall” event in Polk County.

“Any time you have a landfalling system like this, strong, gusty winds and even tornadoes are possible,” Womble said. “So that appears to be the main hazard right now. So that's what we're getting ready for. All of our public safety folks are always ready — fire, EMS (emergency medical services), law enforcement, and then our public works and our infrastructure folks, all the county agencies, the cities, they all have their plans.”

Womble noted that many areas of Polk County remain saturated more than a month after Hurricane Ian. A storm last week dumped three inches or more of rain in some parts of the county.

“It really just depends on where that rain falls and the amount of time,” Womble said. “There's places all over Polk County that if you were to get six, eight, 10 inches, which certainly can come out of even just a tropical storm — and I hate to say ‘just’ a tropical storm — but in this case, if you get a lot of rain in a short amount of time it's going to either cause flooding or, water has gone down in a lot of places, but it won't take very much (to flood).”

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Heavy flooding in Bartow areas

Two areas of Bartow sustained heavy flooding following Hurricane Ian. Peace River Village, a mobile home park south of S.R. 60, suffered an inundation of water that covered streets and flooded some homes.

Farther south and on the west side of the Peace River, water penetrated several houses in the vicinity of Washington Street. The rising waters also nearly invaded a water-treatment plant at the east end of Wabash Street. Bartow Mayor Steve Githens said only a constructed berm reinforced by sandbags protected the plant from water intrusion.

Hurricane Ian turned fairways and greens into ponds at Bartow’s municipal golf course, allowing entry for alligators.

“The water did come up, but then it turned around and receded again,” Githens said. “So, I think that instead of seeing alligators swimming on the second fairway, I think they're now golfing again. So it went back down, but I don't I don't really know what the prognosis is without calling around seeing what all the lake levels are at this point.”

Data posted on the website of the Southwest Florida Water Management District showed that water flow remained unusually high Monday on the Peace River as measured in Bartow. The average flow rate for November was listed at the 100th percentile. Normal flow levels are between the 25th and 75th percentiles.

The river remains swollen well beyond its banks near the bridge over S.R. 60 in Bartow.

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Will schools close in Polk? 

Polk County Public Schools had not announced any plans for possible school closures as of Monday morning.

“We’ll continue to monitor the forecast and provide updates as needed,” school district spokesperson Kyle Kennedy said in an email.

At least one planned event has been postponed because of the forecast. Florida Southern College had scheduled a gathering for Thursday afternoon to unveil "The Moccasin," a boat purchased with grant funds to be used on Lake Hollingsworth for field-based courses and engaged learning activities.

Gary White can be reached at gary.white@theledger.com or 863-802-7518. Follow on Twitter @garywhite13.

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Subtropical Storm Nicole raises concerns of more flooding in Polk