Who will succeed Tennessee's Mark Green in Congress? Some ideas for what happens now.
Tennessee U.S. Rep. Mark Green, R-Clarksville, had two goals for this session of Congress: “pass legislation to secure our borders and to hold (Department of Homeland Security) Secretary (Alejandro) Mayorkas accountable.”
On Feb. 14, Green unfurled the metaphorical “Mission Accomplished” banner after the House impeached Mayorkas.
Citing both the impeachment and the successful passage out of the House of the Secure the Border Act of 2023, Green announced that he would not be seeking re-election to Congress. What does this retirement hold, both for Tennessee and for the country?
First, not just anyone can seek the nomination of the Republican Party.
According to the bylaws of the Tennessee Republican Party, only a “bona fide Republican” can earn the backing of the party.
That means that the person has to meet certain thresholds, such as voting in recent Republican primaries and being “actively involved” with the party.
In other words, do not expect any carpetbaggers or recent political converts attempting to claim the GOP mantle.
Rep. Mark Green: Why securing all our borders will protect Tennessee's security | Opinion
The ‘most motivated and ambitious’ Republicans will run
That aside, do not be surprised to see many potential Republican candidates throw their hats into the ring. An open-seat election tends to bring out those who are the most motivated and ambitious.
Look for many current officeholders at the local and state level to take a serious look at the race.
For example, the Seventh Congressional District contains parts of several state Senate districts, so the seat may be tempting to people like State Sens. Bill Powers, R-Clarksville, or Kerry Roberts, R-Springfield. If a candidate also has the ability to fundraise, or can self-finance a campaign, then they could vault to the top of the list of serious contenders.
Could there be a Democratic nomination fight?
This retirement may also shake things up on the Democratic side. It is always a tall order to take on an incumbent, but with the Republicans in flux, Democrats may believe this to be a more winnable seat.
Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry has already announced that she is running for the Democratic nomination, but there is still time before the filing deadline; I would not be surprised if another challenger emerged.
Another freshman legislator may not help the state
More broadly, what does losing an incumbent mean for the state of Tennessee? For a long time, it was believed that members of Congress that had been around for a while were better at making sure that government money flowed to their district. That is, they would continue to be re-elected as long as they continued to “bring home the bacon.”
Electing a rookie representative would then mean potentially fewer benefits coming to the state. A recent academic study in the digital library JSTOR casts serious doubt on this idea, but it is possible that a representative with less experience navigating Washington may get more easily lost in the shuffle.
And what will greet this new representative when they arrive in DC? Regardless of who captures the White House, there will be many fresh faces on Capitol Hill: more than 50 current members of Congress are retiring. Confronting these members will be the many problems that led to Representative Green stating in his retirement announcement that, “Our country-and our Congress-is broken beyond most means of repair.”
Regardless of who wins, the only thing I can say to this new member is, “Good luck.”
Michael E. Bednarczuk, Ph.D., is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Management at Austin Peay State University in Clarksville.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Tennessee Rep. Mark Green's retirement attracts ambitious politicians
