It is hard to believe that the May long weekend (and the unofficial kickoff to summer) is just a week away, given the lack of warm weather that we have seen across Canada so far during May.
The first 12 days of May featured colder-than-seasonal temperatures from coast to coast, as highlighted by the various shades of blue and green on the temperature anomaly map below.
However, we are already in the midst of a major pattern reversal, with widespread near-seasonal or above-seasonal temperatures expected across much of Canada this weekend and well into next week.
The warmest weather will be found across the Prairies, where they will have an early taste of summer weather. In fact, temperatures will top 30ºC across parts of this region early next week.
The exceptions to the warm pattern will include much of Atlantic Canada, along with Northern Canada, where temperatures will be below seasonal.
As we look ahead to the May long weekend, we expect that Atlantic Canada will continue to be colder than normal, with temperatures more typical of April rather than the beginning of summer.
Meanwhile, above-seasonal temperatures are expected to continue across much of central Canada, and temperatures should be within a few degrees of seasonal for western Canada.
The zone of greatest uncertainty in the long weekend forecast stretches from the Great Lakes to southern Quebec, as this region will be the battlefield between summer-like weather to the south and west, and chilly weather to the east. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to where that boundary will be, and most likely that boundary will be on the move during the weekend.
The placement of this boundary will be the key to whether places in this region continue to enjoy a taste of early summer or if chilly weather returns (or a combination of both) during the long weekend.
We will post an update early next week – in the meantime, please keep an eye on your local forecast on our app and website for our latest forecast.