Thomas Suddes: Will Whaley best DeWine, can Vance clobber Ryan and what about abortion?

Quick takes – in the wake of Tuesday’s statewide primary election – and the revelation that the U.S. Supreme Court may be poised to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which could touch off a Statehouse earthquake given Ohio’s right-to-life legislature and right-to-life governor:

Did Trump help J.D. Vance?

The nomination by Ohio Republicans of J.D. (James David) Vance, a Middletown native, and author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” for the U.S. Senate showed that when Donald Trump talks, Ohio Republicans listen.

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The former president’s endorsement of Vance appears to have been the major factor in Vance’s victory. It didn’t hurt that an ocean of pro-Vance money flooded the state’s airwaves.

Democrats, as expected, nominated U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, of suburban Warren, as their senatorial candidate. In 2019, Ryan made a seven-month run for Democrats’ 2020 presidential nomination, but eventually opted instead to seek re-election to Congress.

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Earlier, Ryan had been an aide to then-Rep. James A. Traficant, of suburban Youngstown, and then a state senator. Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman, of suburban Cincinnati’s Terrace Park, isn’t seeking reelection.

Portman had endorsed former Republican State Chair Jane Timken, of Canton, kin to the bearings-and-steel dynasty, to be his successor. She drew 6% of the statewide primary vote, while Vance carried her home county, Stark.

Meanwhile, the GOP Senate primary suggests that Greater Cleveland Republican Matt Dolan, essentially tied for second with fellow Greater Clevelander Josh Mandel, may have a future in statewide politics.

If Dolan wooed rural and outer-suburban Republicans to his banner, he could be a formidable 2024 challenger to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, also a Greater Clevelander. As for Mandel, whatever his future may be, it likely includes a microphone and a soapbox.

Will Republican show up to vote for DeWine in November?

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, of Greene County’s Cedarville, won re-nomination with less than 50% of the statewide GOP vote; DeWine drew 48%.

But that was better than his GOP critics prophesied. Practically speaking, 48% is a floor under DeWine’s November prospects, not a ceiling. Still, if disenchanted Republicans stay home in November, DeWine could have a problem.

Can Whaley climb the hill fast enough?

Dayton Democrat Nan Whaley made history Tuesday by winning Ohio Democrats’ gubernatorial nomination, becoming the first woman either major party has nominated for Ohio’s governorship, 102 years after women gained the right to vote.

Whaley, Dayton’s former mayor, swamped her Democratic competitor, former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley. Whaley drew 65% of Democrats’ primary vote to Cranley’s 35%.

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Still, absent any further sensational developments in the House Bill 6-FirstEnergy Corp. scandal, Democrats will have an uphill battle against DeWine.

The last time Democrats unseated a Republican governor was in 1958, when Toledoan Michael V. DiSalle beat Republican incumbent Gov. C. William O’Neill, thanks to a Right to Work (for Less) ballot issue backed by GOP business lobbies.

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How will abortion play into the Ohio election?

Monday’s revelation of a draft U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe vs. Wade, a keystone of abortion rights since 1973, has touched off a national firestorm, assuming the court adopts Justice Samuel Alito’s reasoning, or some version of it. The net effect could be to let each state’s legislature virtually end abortion inside that state.

In DeWine, Ohio has a right-to-life governor.

And given its legislative record, the Ohio General Assembly has a de facto right-to-life majority. It’s hard to believe, given those factors, that if a Supreme Court majority does in fact give states the power to limit abortion, that Ohio’s General Assembly wouldn’t be among the first to do so.

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Politically speaking, that’d be like striking a match near gasoline, with mass demonstrations and the like at the Statehouse, thronged committee hearings and marathon floor debates – all unfolding amid a male-dominated, still-gerrymandered, legislature in an Ohio whose population, the Census says, is 51% female.

What about the other Ohio primary?

Finally, Tuesday’s was just the first of two 2022 primary elections in Ohio. The next primary (tab: at least $20 million) will likely be Aug. 2.

Aim: To pick General Assembly candidates. Reason that wasn’t done Tuesday: A deadlock between the slow motion, GOP-run Redistricting Commission and Ohio’s Supreme Court over drawing new districts. That’s the Ohio way: The pols play – and the people pay.

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Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University.

tsuddes@gmail.com

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Can Democrats win statewide in Ohio? What primary told us