Sunak must strike while momentum is behind him

Momentum is growing for Rishi Sunak. His rival, Boris Johnson, remains tied up in the Commons’ tortuous quasi-judicial processes that may or may not result in the former prime minister’s censorship or even suspension from the House. Either way, polls are not favourable to those hoping for Johnson’s dramatic pre-election return to Downing Street.

The Conservative rebellion on the Windsor framework that seeks to save democracy in Northern Ireland was lower than expected, with the agreement clearing the Commons easily. The support of Labour was there, but in the end wasn’t required for it to pass. The general response to the framework itself, widely seen as a masterful resolution to a thorny and largely insoluble problem, has put a spring in the prime minister’s step.

And although it may be an outlier, a Deltapoll survey in the last few days put Labour’s lead down to a manageable ten per cent, less than half the lead Keir Starmer’s party has been enjoying in recent months.

So Sunak has a choice: he can continue to manage events as a good accountant would do, dealing with fires as they ignite and doing the job competently though uninspiringly. Or he can look at the next 18 months as the make-or-break period for the government, and conclude that the emphasis will be on “make”.

There may never come another point when he has the same political capital, or when his opponents are so divided and impotent. The greatest danger for Sunak was always that the polling deficit his party suffered was so immense and so irreversible that his backbenchers might regard the prospect of a challenge to his leadership with an insouciant “What have
we got to lose?”

This crucial period, over the spring and summer, is the time when Sunak must convince his MPs that only he can wrest back the political initiative from Labour. Despite the outcome of the May elections, he must persuade them that voters would prefer his confident hand at the till to yet another vote of confidence and more leadership ballots and the melodrama all of that would entail.

By the end of the year we will be officially in general election date speculation mode, by which point any grand scheme for Tory recovery will be lost in fevered coverage of the long run-up to the campaign. So the time for a new approach is now. This is the calm before the storm and, once the moment has passed, it will not return for many years.

It remains unlikely that even new tax policies or initiatives on immigration, policing or transport will turn the tide and avert what is now considered to be an inevitable Labour victory. But what has the Prime Minister to lose? The worst outcome would be that it changes nothing. The best is that voters will be reminded that there’s life in this government yet.

Sunak’s advantage is that he’s not seen as a hate figure as at least a few of his predecessors have been. His personal ratings tend to outstrip those of his party, but he needs avoid the politician’s trap of mistaking ambivalence for popularity, or believing it is enough to secure a recovery. John Major was always seen as a decent, honest man, but that did nothing to change the voters’ verdict on his party.

It will be policies that change the current dynamic of the polls and subvert general expectations of who will be in Number 10 in a couple of years’ time. If the Rwanda scheme gets off the ground in the summer and – crucially – becomes a big enough deterrent to see a measurable drop in the number of small boats crossing the channel, that will create a significant headache for Labour spokespersons whose pledge to scrap the scheme is (currently) unshakeable.

Inflation also needs to come down, and mortgage rates with it. But beyond competent managerialism, Sunak’s job is to communicate to the country the point of this Tory government. What does it stand for? What will it deliver? The length of time already spent in office since 2010 will not be an advantage in this, especially when so much of that time has been spent (wasted?) in divisive wrangling over Brexit.

That, then, is the crucial point: since 2016 the answer to the question of what this government is for has been to deliver Brexit. And for much of that time that answer has been sufficient. But no longer. Unlike Johnson, Sunak has the opportunity to transcend the limitations of that slightly unfashionable cause and start redefining his government in terms that won’t exacerbate divisions between Remainers and Leavers.

If that becomes his mission, if healing those divisions and encouraging the nation to view horizons beyond trade deals and big red buses becomes his central guiding mission, then it is just possible that his efforts will be welcomed and rewarded.
But that task has to begin now. Manaña is not an option for this prime minister or this government.