Sunak Uses King’s Speech to Squeeze Starmer Before Election

Joe Mayes, Kitty Donaldson and Ellen Milligan
·6 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- King Charles III set out an election-focused UK legislative agenda at the ceremonial opening of Parliament, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak focusing on a series of low-cost measures that lean heavily on right-wing politics as he tries to hold onto power in a nationwide vote expected next year.

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Facing about a 20-point poll deficit against the main opposition Labour Party, Sunak’s government announced tougher sentences for criminals, more drilling for North Sea oil and gas and limited housing reforms in a pitch that aimed to draw dividing lines with Keir Starmer’s party.

But the King’s Speech was notable for its lack of major policy initiatives or grand political gestures, and underscored Conservative Party fears that Sunak is running out of set-piece moments to reinvigorate his administration. His keynote speech at the Tory conference failed to deliver a bounce in the polls, while on Tuesday King Charles appeared to suggest the government’s hands will be tied at a fiscal statement on Nov. 22 as it focuses on tackling inflation.

Sunak’s agenda is constrained by harsh economic circumstances — Britain is probably already in recession, and households are still squeezed by a cost-of-living crisis — all while managing a fractured parliamentary party. For the monarch, it meant using a speech delivered amid peak British pageantry to warn of the UK’s “significant long-term challenges.”

“My government will, in all respects, seek to make long-term decisions in the interests of future generations,” King Charles said at his first state opening of Parliament since becoming monarch, echoing Sunak’s new slogan that is meant to signal a political reset for his ailing party. But the risk for Sunak is that it is already starting to ring hollow, and at 21 bills — the fewest in almost a decade — the King’s Speech is likely to be chalked up as another opportunity gone.

“It seems to be targeted at making his base happy and keeping people on side,” said Raoul Ruparel, director at Boston Consulting Group’s Centre for Growth and a former special adviser to ex-premier Theresa May on Europe. “It feels like a ‘don’t rock the boat’ approach.”

There was rare agreement between the left-leaning Guardian newspaper and the right-leaning Telegraph, with both concluding the speech had underwhelmed.

Much of what was in the King’s Speech reflected Sunak’s recent lurch to the right on issues including climate change. It meant that King Charles, a keen environmentalist, was tasked with confirming a loosening of the UK’s green agenda, which Sunak’s team sees as a dividing issue with Labour and a way to present the government as trying to ease the financial burden on families struggling with the cost of living.

The government says its plan to maximize drilling for North Sea oil and gas is consistent with the UK’s long-term goal to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions, while boosting energy security and lowering household bills along the way. It also attempts to make trouble for Labour, which has pledged to ban new drilling licenses in the region.

But the plan’s impact on supply and price is disputed, especially as North Sea resources are mostly tapped out and production has steadily declined since its peak more than 20 years ago.

Still, Sunak’s green shift — and his focus on crime — is popular on the right of his party, both in Parliament and among grassroots activists. The premier is still viewed sceptically by some MPs, many of whom are allies of former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and he needs a strong turnout from his core vote if he is to stand a chance of winning the next election.

On housing, the government said it would make it cheaper for existing leaseholders to extend their lease and boost transparency over service charges. It also said it would ban the sale of new houses as leaseholds — all policies that are designed to appeal to the Tory self-image as the party of home ownership. But by not including new flats in the ban, it represents a significant watering down of the ambition when the government first said it would look at the issue.

There were also no significant plans for house-building in the King’s Speech. That’s a divisive issue among Conservative MPs, many of whom resist construction in their districts, yet it means the government risks conceding important political ground to Labour.

“Labour will likely state that the government has used the most significant event in the parliamentary calendar to simply repackage ideas that have already been announced multiple times,” said Joe Armitage, lead UK political analyst at Global Counsel, calling it a “limited parliamentary agenda.”

Other omissions also point to the difficulty Sunak faces in managing a party that is so far behind in the polls. A promised ban on gay conversion therapy was not in the speech. Meanwhile, there was was no sign of Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s idea to tackle homelessness by forbidding charities from handing out tents — an indication that even as the prime minister tacks the right, there may be limits as to how far he is prepared to go.

Other plans included:

  • A New Zealand-style, age-based ban on cigarette sales, making good on a key pledge from his Conservative Party conference speech last month.

  • Targeting consumer rip-offs by making it harder for traders to keep people in subscription contracts and consulting on so-called “drip pricing.”

  • An independent regulator to oversee football clubs in England

  • A legal framework for self-driving vehicles, including powers to fine companies and immunity for drivers.

  • Giving the country’s spies and police “more efficient” access to telecommunications data.

  • Requiring large venues such as Wembley Stadium to take “reasonably practicable” measures to reduce the risk of a terrorist attack.

The government also said violent criminals will be locked up for longer, offenders will be forced to appear in court for sentencing, and police will get extra powers to tackle “everyday” crime and antisocial behavior.

That’s aimed at restoring the Conservative Party’s claim to be tough on crime, but without wider reform of clogged-up courts and overcrowded prisons, it is unlikely to lead to fundamental change in the criminal justice system.

In his written introduction, Sunak tried to frame himself as having succeeded on his five key pledges — halving inflation, reducing debt, shortening National Health Service waiting times, growing the economy and ending small boats crossings — despite evidence showing limited progress. Debt continues to rise, there are still regular small boat crossings, economic growth has been anemic and NHS waiting lists keep setting records.

“With any meaningful action impossible before the general election, this government is out of touch, out of ideas and out of time,” Naomi Smith, chief executive of the Best for Britain think tank, said in an emailed statement.

--With assistance from Alex Wickham and Lucy White.

(Updates with more details, analyst comment from sixth paragraph.)

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