Your Sunday Asia Briefing: A Tale of Two Elections

Adam Majendie
·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Two potentially game-changing elections take place today at each end of Asia, a fitting start to a week in which politics is set to play a dominant role in markets. From the debt brinksmanship in the US to the G-7 summit in Japan, these are the events to look out for.

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The big vote. It’s election time in Thailand, when people usually turn out in huge numbers, often to vote for whichever party is allied to exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, only to have the result cancelled by a court or a coup. Earlier polls suggested that may change this time round. Here’s a guide to today’s action.

The big data. Tuesday will bring tidings of rapid growth in China’s April industrial output and retail sales, as well as an acceleration in fixed-asset investment for the first four months. Huzzah, you say. But wait. These are year-on-year figures, comparing with the time in 2022 when Shanghai was locked down and movement restricted elsewhere. Month-on-month data is likely to be less appealing as the economy struggles to provide the impetus markets are seeking. Elsewhere in the region, economic growth in Thailand and Japan may pick up, the Philippine central bank is likely to pause its rate-hiking cycle, and we’ll get trade data from India, New Zealand and Malaysia.

The big seven. The G-7 finance officials wrapped up their three-day meeting promising more support for Ukraine, a plan to diversify supply chains and a vow to fill gaps in financial regulation. Here are the details. Next up, the G-7 leaders will gather on Friday in Hiroshima to try to build a more cohesive strategy over relations with China.

The big storm. Bangladesh and Myanmar have ordered hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate ahead of Cyclone Mocha, which could be the strongest storm to make landfall in the area since Nargis killed more than 100,000 people in Bangladesh in 2008.

The big stop. China’s central bank will probably skip a monthly liquidity injection for the first time this year as Beijing weighs the impact of previous monetary stimulus on the recovering economy.

The other big vote. At the other end of the continent, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking re-election today after two decades in power, during which he’s changed just about everything. Follow the neck-and-neck contest between Erdogan, 69, and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74.

The big showdown. US President Joe Biden’s meeting with Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders was postponed till this week as staff continued to negotiate the debt ceiling. As the default deadline approaches, RBC saysbuy gold.

The big bail. Pakistan’s former premier Imran Khan was granted two weeks bail on Friday over charges against him, the latest twist in a political drama that’s fueled unrest across the country.

And finally, inflation has finally reached the true engine of the global economy: instant coffee. A shortage of cheaper robusta beans is pushing up prices and threatening the morning productivity of millions of workers around the world.

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