SunRail link to airport, theme parks would multiply riders and cost billions

Expanding SunRail to Orlando’s airport and the region’s tourism corridor would boost ridership at least sixfold in the first year of operation but come at an eye-popping cost of about $4 billion, state officials said Thursday in providing their first public projections for the commuter train’s next phase.

“There’s a lot of sharpening of the pencil to determine the true cost of this project,” said John Tyler, secretary of the Florida’s Department of Transportation’s Central Florida district, speaking to local mayors and city commissioners on SunRail’s board. Those costs would have to come from the taxpayers, with a combination of local, state and federal funding, as well as significant private contributions.

But Tyler was quick to argue the merits of what he called “transformational transportation projects” to Central Florida, citing the $2.3 billion overhaul of Interstate 4, construction of the $1.6 billon Wekiva Parkway, completion of the Orlando airport’s $3.2 billion Terminal C and Brightline’s start of service last year between Miami and Orlando.

Tyler said his department’s yearlong study, finding that linking SunRail to airport and tourism stops would increase ridership from the current 1 million annually to 6 million annually, is likely to be an underestimate.

“And when you look at the outer years, it is very significant,” Tyler said, pointing to an estimate of 9.4 million riders by 2040. “That’s an extremely positive result from this study.”

Response from the board was mixed and largely reserved. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer had the most positive reaction. “I am more excited about possibilities for SunRail in the future than, quite honestly, I have ever been,” Dyer said.

Seminole County Commissioner Amy Lockhart took a lead in addressing money worries. “We are not a bottomless pit of money,” she said.

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said his county’s transportation needs — including roads, rail and pedestrian projects — add up to a staggering cost that cannot be afforded without a dedicated source of funding, such as an increase in sales tax that he has backed previously and unsuccessfully.

Without such funding, Orange County’s support of expanding SunRail would be “difficult,” he said.

Sunrail’s currently existing north-south, 49-mile corridor with 16 stations through Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties, running roughly parallel to Interstate 4, will be completed this summer with the opening of a final segment of 12 miles between DeBary and a new station in DeLand.

Local and state officials contend that SunRail needs the airport and tourism links to blossom into a thriving public transportation option with late night and weekend hours. Its current schedule offers neither.

The airport and tourism links, including track, stations and trains, are embodied in the proposed “Sunshine Corridor” project under consideration for the past two years.

The study unveiled by the state transportation department Thursday depicts several scenarios. Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million.

The Sunshine Corridor is drawing support from Universal Studios Orlando, which has committed to providing land for a station and other incentives, and Brightline Trains, which wants to expand its current intercity service from Orlando’s airport to Tampa by using the corridor.

Walt Disney World has been absent from Sunshine Corridor discussions for the past two years, including during the recent dispute between Gov. Ron DeSantis and Disney over control of the attractions giant’s governing body, now called the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District.

But Brightline has long been interested in a station at Disney. The Sunshine Corridor study unveiled Thursday depicts riders and costs associated with a stop at Disney Springs.

“In the past, Disney has expressed to the department that they are very interested in expanding SunRail to Disney,” Tyler said. “We have continued to focus on getting a connection to that point. It makes sense from a transportation standpoint and we have no reason to believe we shouldn’t be pursuing that.”

The initial step is straightforward. Tyler said the Florida Department of Transportation will immediately engage with the Federal Transit Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation to explore pathways for securing grants.

Conventional thinking about funding the Sunshine Corridor, Tyler said, mirrors funding so far for SunRail: costs would be split with 25 percent for local sources, including private investors, 25 percent for state support and the rest for federal grants.

But exactly how to pursue that federal assistance remains unclear, Tyler said. There will be a key requirement that the Sunshine Corridor initiative provides a project development and environment study.

That could cost about $6 million, Tyler said, and the Florida Department of Transportation will seek to provide $2 million for the study.

None of the SunRail commission members responded directly to whether they would help pay for the project’s environmental study, or its development.

“Probably the biggest concern is where does the money come from,” said Volusia County Council Chairman Jeff Brower, a member of the SunRail Commission, of the Sunshine Corridor.