Suozzi’s New York Win Gives Democrats Playbook for Border Battle

(Bloomberg) -- Tom Suozzi’s victory this week in a suburban New York district gives Democrats a blueprint for handling immigration and border security, the thorny issue that is vexing President Joe Biden and his party heading into November’s election.

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There are caveats on how much any one special election can reflect or forecast a national political environment. But this race for a Nassau County and Queens district turned on immigration more than anything else — and Suozzi’s deft handling of the issue helped him reclaim the seat he held for three terms, before deciding not to run again in 2022. George Santos flipped the district that year for Republicans.

Republican candidate Mazi Pilip seized on polls showing voters irate at Biden’s handling of the border, slapping Suozzi hard in ads on immigration issues, including New York City’s struggle to deal with the influx of asylum-seekers.

“This is more of a referendum on Joe Biden than George Santos,” Republican Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County Executive, said at Pilip’s party just before the results were announced, pointing directly at the migrant issue.

Read More: Democrat Suozzi Wins Back NY House Seat Vacated by Santos

Suozzi was aggressive in his response to attacks on immigration policies, blaming Republicans for “political game-playing.” In the last days of the campaign, he sought to pin the blame for the border on Republicans, who scuttled a hard-fought immigration deal at the behest of likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

“Stop running around for Trump and start running the country,” Suozzi swiped at Republicans in his victory speech Tuesday.

Immigration has risen to near the top of voters’ election-year concerns as illegal border crossings soar while inflation eases, unemployment remains low and consumer confidence strengthens. Biden is vulnerable on the issue, with six in 10 swing-state voters saying he bears responsibility for the migration surge, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

Read More: Swing-State Voters Blame Biden for Migrant Surge at the Border

Suozzi’s success in flipping the narrative is exactly what Democrats are hoping to do on a national scale following the demise of that bipartisan deal, which took four months to craft and was killed in less than 24 hours.

Suozzi specifically called for tougher US border policies, noting he’d bucked his party in the past on the issue, and was vocal about seeking to work with both sides of the aisle for solutions.

A political action committee supporting Suozzi ran ads touting his work with former Republican Representative Peter King on bipartisan immigration legislation, and he pointed stayed far away from Biden, who visited New York City for a fundraiser last week but steered clear of the campaign trail.

Each district has its own dynamics and special elections produce lower voter turnouts, making them an unreliable indicator of national political trends. A snowstorm Tuesday further impacted the special election.

Suozzi, 61, already enjoyed wide name familiarity in the area, while Pilip, 44, an Ethiopian-born Israeli immigrant, was a previously little-known Nassau County legislator. And Democrats outspent Republicans 2-1 in the race.

Had Suozzi lost, however, it would have dissuaded other Democrats from leaning too far into immigration. But his strategy worked, and it could be replicated in other urban and suburban areas where the surge of migrants is straining local social services.

Narrowing Majority

Suozzi will now head to Washington, where he’s expected to be sworn in Feb. 28, according to two people familiar. His victory narrows Speaker Mike Johnson’s razor-thin House GOP majority to six seats in a 435-member chamber — meaning he can only afford two GOP defections on any party-line vote.

Johnson on Wednesday said Suozzi ran like a Republican candidate. “The result last night is not something Democrats should celebrate too much,” he said.

Still, Suozzi’s victory Tuesday potentially represents not just a lesson or path for some other Democratic candidates in swing-districts this fall — but an early warning for Republicans in nearby other New York swing districts that will be key in which party wins control of the US House in November.

“It’s significant that this victory is in a state where Democrats need to flip at least a few seats to take back the majority,” Erin Covey, an analyst at Cook Political Report, said.

--With assistance from Erik Wasson, Nacha Cattan and Mia Gindis.

(Updates with polling data in seventh paragraph. An earlier version corrected the number of GOP defections Johnson can afford in 12th paragraph)

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