Super Bowl betting update: Public money pouring in on underdog Cincinnati Bengals

The Queen City is not the only place falling in love with the Cinderella story of the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals.

In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are seeing the public flock to bet on Cincinnati in Super Bowl 56.

The Bengals are currently 4-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams, according to Tipico Sportsbook.

Early sharp money on the Rams moved the spread to 4.5 last week. Since then, recreational (or public) money has come in on the AFC Champions.

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“Bookmakers have been a little surprised just how much the public has been betting the Bengals,” said Ben Fawkes, VP of Digital Content at VSiN Sports Betting Network.

In a Tweet Wednesday, Fawkes said that 63% of the bets and 59% of the money at Draft Kings is on the Bengals at +4.5.

“The public is loving Cincinnati.” Golden Nugget Sportsbook Director Tony Miller said. “Everyone is playing them right now."

A factor of the public admiration is the quarterback.

“Everyone is seeing Joe Burrow, the cigars after the game, the outfits as well as the play on the field, right?” Fawkes said. “I think the public is infatuated with him and you want to ride that hot hand.”

The Bengals had the longest preseason odds to reach the Super Bowl since the 1999 Rams at around 150-to-1 ($100 wins $15,000). Cincinnati was predicted to finish last in the AFC North with the fourth-lowest season win total (6.5) in the NFL.

Miller said he’d have a few longshot Bengals futures to pay out if they upset the Rams.

“We get a lot of play from Ohio with people coming to the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas and they back their Cincinnati teams pretty well,” he said.

Majority of bets still to come

Last year’s Super Bowl between the Buccaneers and Chiefs saw “about $500 million in legal wagers,” according to MarketWatch.

So far, Bengals-Rams is nowhere near that number, but the money is on its way.

“One book I spoke with, 60% to 70% of their action was just over Super Bowl weekend. Another book I talked to thought they were at about 5% of their handle,” Fawkes explained.

Miller added: “It’s been kibbles and bits. All the money starts coming in on Thursday and over the weekend.”

For sharp (or professional) money, that could mean waiting on the Rams to get cheap after the public throws its support at Cincinnati. The Super Bowl is one of the few sporting events where recreational money influences the point spread and total, just off of accumulation.

The public tends to bet underdogs on the money line (to win the game), so they can bet a little to win a lot. A bet on the Bengals to win pays in the +170 range ($100 to win $170), compared to a bet on the Rams to win, which pays in the -200 range ($100 wins $50).

If the public drives that Rams price down, professionals would likely jump on it.

“The sharps are sitting back waiting, licking their lips to see how low this Rams money line will go,” Miller explained.

Total has dropped

After opening in the 49-49.5 range, the total (or over-under) has ticked down to 48.5 and settled.

The Bengals and Rams each averaged 27.1 points per game this season, but Cincinnati is 3-0 to the under during the playoffs and Los Angeles is 2-1.

"More of the respected money early on has been on the under," Fawkes said.

Under tickets have cashed in three straight and four of the last six Super Bowls.

"The total is getting nice two-way action," Miller added.

MVP odds update

It's no surprise that the two starting quarterbacks are the favorites to be named Super Bowl MVP.

On Tipico, Matthew Stafford is even money and Burrow is +220. A quarterback has been named MVP in 31 of 55 Super Bowls (56.4%). A defensive or special teams player has won more Super Bowl MVPs (10) than wide receivers (7) or running backs (7).

Rams' defensive tackle Aaron Donald has been a popular bet. Donald currently sits at +1300 after opening closer to 20-to-1. A defensive player has not been named Super Bowl MVP since Von Miller in Super Bowl 50.

"I think the only way Aaron Donald could win it it is if it's a similar, low-scoring game," Fawkes said.

According to Miller, bettors like "shooting BBs at the moon," when it comes to the MVP. Rams' wide receiver Cooper Kupp is the next favorite after the two signal-callers at +600. On the Cincinnati side, Ja'Marr Chase is +1500, Joe Mixon is +3000 and Tee Higgins is +4000.

"They will take shots at those longshot prices," Miller said.

Recent history favors Bengals

Underdogs have been a profitable pick in recent Super Bowls. No favorite has covered a spread of over a field goal in the Super Bowl since Indianapolis (-7) beat Chicago in Super Bowl 41, 29-17.

In total, underdogs are 28-24-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl and have won the game outright in eight of the last 14.

Slow start for Cincinnati?

Recency bias is a key factor in sports wagering and bettors are banking on another slow start for Cincinnati and Zac Taylor being conservative early.

Four of the last six head coaches appearing in their first Super Bowl scored three points or less in the opening quarter.

The Bengals' first-half team total, via Tipico, is 10.5 with juice on the under (-135). The Rams first-quarter spread (-.5) is taking some action, too. Los Angeles has outscored opponents, 80-54, in the first quarter this season and has allowed one first-quarter touchdown in its last nine games.

"A lot of people betting on that," Fawkes said of the first quarter bet. "After that Chiefs game, that's probably a narrative people are thinking where the Rams get out early and the Bengals end up coming back."

Big bets

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Super Bowl bets 2022: Public falls in love with Joe Burrow, Bengals