To make a Super pick, I re-watched Panthers-Broncos Super Bowl and learned 5 things

Five years ago, the Carolina Panthers entered Super Bowl 50 on top of the world, sporting a 17-1 record and swaggering in as the clear favorites against the Denver Broncos.

But all that disintegrated in a hurry, and what happened in that game may provide a blueprint for what is going to happen in the 55th Super Bowl on Sunday, pitting Kansas City against Tampa Bay.

My prediction for this Super Bowl is at the conclusion of this column, so feel free to skip to the end if that’s all you want.

You may need a strong stomach to relive the misery of Super Bowl 50, when a Carolina team that was better than Denver in many ways still managed to get whipped, 24-10, because it couldn’t handle Denver’s pass rush.

But I steeled myself and re-watched that entire Panthers-Broncos Super Bowl game this week, rather than just the highlights, for the first time ever. My original idea was to remember why Panthers offensive tackle Mike Remmers played such a big part in that game, given that he may play a similarly big part in Sunday’s Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl, too.

But while watching Denver and Carolina again, I found five other hidden plays that could have changed the game’s outcome — five would-be jewels that turned into fool’s gold for the Panthers. They were plays I’d forgotten entirely due to the headlines about Cam Newton not jumping on his own fumble (still the most inexplicable play Newton made in his Panthers career), Carolina’s overmatched offensive line allowing seven sacks and Jerricho Cotchery bobbling but catching a ball that somehow still was ruled as an incompletion, the first of his three drops in the game.

Remmers was one of Super Bowl 50’s biggest goats, although far from the only one. He allowed eventual Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to absolutely terrorize Newton and gave up two strip-sacks to Miller that led directly to Denver TDs, as well as another half-sack and several other pressures.

But while Remmers was terrible, he also didn’t get nearly enough help from a coaching staff that should have understood after the first strip-sack that Miller had to be double-teamed on every passing down. The Panthers should have understood that “max protection,” with seven blocking and only three receivers in the route, was the way to go after those first couple of sacks.

There was more to the game than that, even though Miller’s two strip-sacks were undoubtedly the game’s two biggest plays. Denver would have had a hard time scoring more than 10-14 points otherwise with a “way-past-his-prime” Peyton Manning playing quarterback (Manning threw for only 141 yards in the game and turned the ball over twice).

Now Remmers will likely start at left tackle for the Kansas City’s patched-up line. And although Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy will surely scheme up the Chiefs’ offensive line protection better than the Panthers did, that’s going to be a problem for Kansas City.

Patrick Mahomes is better than Newton, but he’s not a lot better than Newton was in 2015; he was the NFL’s MVP that year.

Mahomes will need a lot of quick outlets to get the ball to because Tampa Bay’s pass rush, with Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, reminds me a lot of Denver’s from five years ago. Newton, of course, also had no one like Tyreek Hill to throw the ball to when in trouble.

Before we get to the prediction, here are those five hidden plays from that Super Bowl five years ago. How many do you remember?

Mike Tolbert’s fumble

Panthers fullback Tolbert never fumbled with Carolina in the regular season. Not once. He played from 2012-16 for the Panthers, touched the ball 383 times in regular-season games and didn’t lose it a single time.

But in this Super Bowl, Tolbert fumbled twice. He managed to recover the first, but his second one ruined what looked like a good drive. Carolina was down only 13-7 at the time and had the ball at the Denver 40, with a chance to take the lead with a TD.

Graham Gano’s miss

For as good as Gano often was for Carolina, he sure had some key misses during his career. One came in this Super Bowl from 44 yards, on Carolina’s first drive of the third quarter. Again, the Panthers trailed only 13-7 at the time, and Gano’s field goal would have given them some momentum in a game they never led. In his career from 40-49 yards, Gano has been successful 83% of the time, but that 44-yard doinked off the right upright.

Josh Norman’s near-miss

If you remember, Norman in 2015 was quite likely the best cornerback in the NFL. And you need a guy like that to come up with a huge play in the Super Bowl.

Norman nearly did. Early in the second quarter, he gambled by leaving his man, reading Manning’s eyes and cutting in front of Jordan Norwood on a deep slant over the middle. Norwood never saw it coming, and Norman got both hands on the ball. It wasn’t an easy interception, but it was there for the taking, at Denver’s 40. Instead, Norman dropped it and it became a forgotten incompletion. Ron Rivera knew how important that was, though. Rarely emotional on the sidelines, Rivera raised his hands in triumph when Norman broke on Manning’s throw and then dropped them in dismay when the ball fell to the ground.

Brad Nortman’s 28-yard punt

It was a bad Super Bowl for Carolina’s special teams, and many people remember that Nortman had a punt returned 61 yards in this game by Denver’s Norwood due to poor coverage by Colin Jones and others.

That second-quarter return never should have happened, though. Nortman was punting from his own 47 with Carolina down only 10-7. Norwood was prepared for a fair catch, lined up on his own 10. Most NFL punters are automatically hitting a towering 40-yard punt in that situation, resulting in a fair catch inside the 20.

Instead, Nortman hit the worst kind of punt — low, short and catchable. I’ve seen high schoolers bang better punts than this one. Norwood moved up 15 yards to grab what was only a 28-yard punt and then blow past everyone but Carolina’s Mario Addison to set up a Denver field goal.

Ted Ginn’s drop

Newton had three turnovers in this game and didn’t play well, with two of those turnovers being strip-sacks given up by Remmers. Not trying to leap on the fumble in a one-score game really was unforgivable, and his “Keep Pouting” press conference after the game was also regrettable.

But Newton’s third turnover never should have happened.

Down 16-7 in the third quarter but with the ball at the Denver 28, Newton threw a beautiful bullet to Ginn at the Denver 15.

But Ginn, prone to occasional drops throughout his NFL career, let it go right through his hands. That deflected ball led to Newton’s only interception of the day. Ginn should have caught it, giving Carolina a first-and-goal in the red zone. Ginn had a poor Super Bowl in general, catching only four of the 10 passes thrown to him.

This drop was the worst of those six misfires, and maybe even worse was Phil Simms’ ridiculous commentary right after the play: “He threw it so hard that Ted Ginn could not make the catch.”

Huh? That was the only way the ball could get there. Newton had to throw a fastball — the sort of throw Manning was literally incapable of making in that game — and he fired a perfect one.

The prediction

OK, enough digression.

What does the Super Bowl from five years ago have to do with Kansas City-Tampa Bay? The Buccaneers are doing a good “Denver 2015” impression right now, generating so much pressure with only four rushers that they will be able to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs under 30 points.

I am also using a Panthers-themed yardstick to measure these two teams. Tampa Bay was the best team Carolina faced all year. The Panthers got blasted twice, 31-17 and 46-23. On the other hand, the Panthers gave Kansas City a major scare on the road before succumbing, 33-31.

Tom Brady has had enough success in his career for three lifetimes already. I don’t want him to win his seventh Super Bowl. But I think he’s going to.

My pick: Tampa Bay 31, Kansas City 27.