How sure are we that Geno Smith is a sure thing as Hawks future quarterback?

If you’re being honest, do you really want Geno Smith to return as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback?

For the longest time — well, if a month could be called a long time — I liked the idea of signing him to a three-year, $75 to $80 million contract featuring guarantees and incentives. Then build a better defense and offensive line in the draft, and supplement the strategy with shrewd and selective moves in free agency.

If those things happened, Smith would be in better position to help the Seahawks win a Super Bowl. I’ve changed my mind about that. In the history of the Super Bowl, more often than not, the quarterback of the winning team is elite, and as surprisingly good as Geno was this season, no one considers him elite.

There are exceptions, and maybe Geno would be the latest addition to a pretty short list. I could still be talked into Smith coming back but on a much cheaper deal, something in the neighborhood of $20 million a year. That would ease the hit on the salary cap and still give Geno a huge raise — he made $7 million this season.

But even with improvements around him, do you foresee the Geno-led Seahawks being anything more than a one and done in the playoffs? Do you see them catching and passing the 49ers in the next year or two with Geno at quarterback?

Hey, maybe so — if the 49ers can reach the NFC championship game with a third-string quarterback, the Seahawks could possibly do the same thing with Geno.

The Seahawks have all kinds of options — keep Geno and consider him Super Bowl-worthy; keep Geno and draft an eventual successor in the first round; bail on Geno and re-sign Drew Lock, thinking he could be as good as Geno and might have a higher ceiling; or go completely out-of-the-box by acquiring Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr.

Keep in mind that Pete Carroll has always been in win-now mode, but there's an extra little emphasis since he’s turning 72 in September. I firmly believe that Carroll thinks he can win it all with Geno, but the negotiation process will be interesting.

In addition to the marquee names clogging the QB market, there aren’t many teams that will consider Geno as a must have or even a high priority. Sure, Smith would be an upgrade for several teams, Carolina, for instance, but how excited would your average Panthers’ fan be if they signed Geno? My guess: Not very.

Smith’s apparent lack of leverage increases the Seahawks’ chances of re-signing him to a club-friendly deal. Geno has also said he’d be more inclined to give the Seahawks a hometown discount since they’ve been so loyal to him over the years.

If I were GM John Schneider, I’d be careful about how club-friendly I’d make my offer. Say Schneider offers a base contract that averages $20 million a year but includes reachable incentives. Geno might be justifiably insulted because his 2022 stats suggest that he should command a deal in the $30 million-a-year range. If that happens, Geno might be want to look elsewhere for a job.

However it plays out, I’d vote for the scenario in which Geno moves on while Seahawks hitch their wagon to Lock in 2023 and drafting C.J. Stroud or Will Levis with the fifth pick in the draft.

How does this make sense? Maybe it doesn’t. But maybe it does to Carroll and Schneider. Though he didn’t look great in preseason games, Lock was rumored to have still been the Seahawks’ possible starter if Covid had not sidelined him in late August. He also was said to have looked terrific in practice this season.

If the Seahawks think Lock could resemble Geno production-wise, they could turn to him and use the saved millions they would have given to Smith and use it to shore up other weaknesses on their team. Lock could prove to be a legitimate franchise QB or the bust he was in Denver or something in between. At least you’d find out, and in the meantime the Seahawks could groom Stroud or Levis to take over in 2024 if Lock flames out or have a heck of a trade chip with one of the rookies if Lock is brilliant.

I realize that Geno is more of a sure thing since he proved it this year, but how sure is he? Sure enough for a Lombardi Trophy? I’m thinking not. It’s more of a gamble to go with the unknown commodities, but I hope the Seahawks grab the dice and throw ‘em.

Jim Moore is a longtime Pacific Northwest sportswriter and sports radio host on 950 KJR at 10 a.m. weekdays with Jason Puckett, and writes a regular column for the Kitsap Sun. Contact Jim at jimmoorethego2guy@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo. 

This article originally appeared on Kitsap Sun: Jim Moore Seahawks should move on from Geno Smith