Surge in Migrant Crossings Brings Tunisia’s Crisis to Europe

Souhail Karam
·3 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Tunisia’s simmering political and economic crisis has fueled an exodus of youth fleeing to Europe, with attempted migration from the North African country rising to the highest since the Arab Spring more than a decade ago.

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At least 45,421 Tunisians tried to or succeeded in crossing the Mediterranean by boat in the year to Oct. 26, according to Bloomberg calculations based on figures from local advocacy group FTDES. That compares with a total of 36,424 in 2011 in the aftermath of the uprising that ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

The numbers are particularly alarming because Tunisia had been the region’s best hope for democracy, and the surge comes as refugee and migrant crossings are back in focus in Europe. The majority heads across the Mediterranean to Italy, where a new far-right prime minister has promised to do more to keep immigrants out.

The overall number has also soared five-fold since 2019, the year of President Kais Saied’s election. He’s accused of returning Tunisia to authoritarian rule and failing to revive an economy marred by years of tepid growth. Inflation is at its highest in three decades, with youth unemployment at nearly 40%.

“Despair is everywhere,” FTDES’s chief executive, Alaa Talbi, said in an interview, blaming worsening economic conditions and more frequent droughts. “Migration today is no longer a plan of individuals or delinquents -- it is demanded by whole families.”

Tunisia, which has seen shortages of fuel and bread in recent months, is on track to secure International Monetary Fund help, but that’s doing little to salve public angst. The government is poised to enact long-mooted subsidy cuts in 2023, with the main labor union this week warning of “social battle” if there are any major changes that affect living standards among the population of about 12 million.

Roughly two-thirds of would-be migrants were intercepted this year, although 16,292 arrived in Italy, the only country for which 2022 data was given. Tunis-based FTDES gathers testimonies as well as collating figures from sources including Tunisian authorities, the UN Refugee Agency and European Union governments.

The overseas voyage is fraught with risks. More than 540 people either drowned or were reported missing after leaving Tunisian shores for Europe this year, up from 440 in 2021. Days-long protests in October shook the town of Zarzis over what locals said was the secret burial by the authorities of Tunisians who died at sea.

In recent weeks, newspaper reports of the arrival in Italy of an unaccompanied four-year-old Tunisian girl has shone a spotlight on the exodus. FTDES says the departures now include many more under-18s than previous years.

Elsewhere on the continent, Serbia is introducing entry visas for Tunisians in a step that might prevent the country being used as an entry-point to the neighboring EU. At home, Tunisian authorities are responding with waves of arrests and the “militarization” of border areas, according to Talbi.

“What can honestly motivate Tunisian youth and women to stay in Tunisia?” he said. “Every Tunisian is a migrant in progress.”

--With assistance from Rene Vollgraaff.

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