Surge in support for independence must be 'wake up call' for unionists, campaigners warn
A surge in support for independence must serve as a “wake up call” to unionists who need to make a more assertive and confident case for the benefits of remaining in the United Kingdom, campaigners have warned.
Sir John Curtice, the respected polling expert, said the foundations of public support for the union had never appeared so weak after a series of surveys found that a majority of Scots now support breaking up the 313-year-old union.
The latest, published in the Sunday Times yesterday, put support for independence at 54 per cent, and also found widespread approval for Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and disapproval of Boris Johnson’s performance.
Campaigners who successfully delivered a No vote in 2014 called for more focus on the economic arguments in favour of the union and accused the UK Government of damaging its own cause by being drawn into “petty political spats” with nationalists.
Today’s #indyref2 poll is disappointing. But it’s comes after months of broadcast media providing an almost unchallenged platform for the SNP to push a false narrative that fatal testing delays, a crisis in our care homes and 4k+ #covid19 deaths is somehow “getting it right”. 1/4
— 🌈 Jamie Halcro Johnston MSP (@jhalcrojohnston) July 5, 2020
Blair McDougall, who ran the Better Together campaign, said: “I think what you’re seeing at the moment is a reaction to a particular moment in time, but also a reaction to what is currently an imbalanced debate.
“Politicians should have the confidence to point out that economic disruption of independence is a bad idea in the middle of the pandemic, and it would be of far greater magnitude than Brexit. But nobody’s making that argument."
Referring to Nicola Sturgeon’s daily press conferences, he added: “At the moment, every single day on BBC Scotland, there is an hour-long taxpayer-funded party political broadcast for Nicola Sturgeon on Covid, and nothing else from the other side.
"The entire resources of the Scottish state have been directed towards this issue exclusively. I think people who want to remain with the United Kingdom need to recognise resources need to be put on the other side. My experience of setting up Better Together in 2012 was resources didn't come until very late, so I think resources need to come sooner rather than later from people who care about this."
According to the Panelbase poll, the First Minister has an approval rating of plus 60 for her handling of the coronavirus crisis, despite numbers of deaths in Scotland being broadly comparable with the UK and a greater proportion of fatalities coming in care homes. Boris Johnson’s rating on the same measure among Scots was minus 39.
“People should be concerned, this is a big wake-up call for the unionist side,” one prominent member of Better Together, who did not want to be named, said, “It may well be that this reflects people’s views of the beauty contest between Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson, but independence would be an irreversible decision about a union that has been good for us for 300 years.
“The sniping that’s going on from Westminster is not beneficial. There needs to be a relentless positivity about the benefits we have from sharing resources across the UK, and also the social and cultural benefits we gain.
“A huge number of people are benefitting from some of the economic measures we’ve seen from the Treasury, but I’m not sure the message from the UK Government has emphasised that. They are often playing the game the SNP want them to play.
“Every waking moment of the day Nicola Sturgeon manages to articulate for her cause, and some on our side are sleepwalking and doing her bidding for her by getting drawn into petty political spats.”
Mr Johnson has said he would not allow a second independence referendum, but would face renewed calls to grant one should the SNP win a mandate at next year’s Holyrood elections. According to the Panelbase poll, Ms Sturgeon’s party is on course to win a clear majority, with the SNP's current lead translating to 74 out of 129 seats.
“If we’re on this sort of a trajectory we’re also on the trajectory of a second independence referendum,” the former Better Together source added. “There would be a democratic legitimacy there. Boris Johnson can’t be like the Tories of the 1990s, standing against a Scottish Parliament. Things can still change, but only if there’s effort and resource put into making that change.”
Sir John said the average of the Panelbase polls over last six months, including the latest, put Yes on 51 per cent and No on 49 per cent. He said it was the first time in polling history that Yes had been ahead for such a long period.
He added: "Never before have the foundations of public support for the Union looked so weak.
"Our latest poll from Panelbase confirms other recent polling that has suggested those who intend to vote yes in a second independence referendum have nudged ahead.”
Keith Brown, the deputy leader of the SNP, said: "On the basis of this sustained record support, it's impossible for the UK government to deny Scotland a choice over its future.
"This out-of-touch Tory government exemplifies the very worst of the Union, and Boris Johnson may be the best recruiting tool for Scottish independence since Margaret Thatcher.”
