Surge of tropical moisture to bring needed drought relief to Texas, Southwest
Much-needed drought relief is on the way for parts of Texas as the atmosphere sends a substantial increase in moisture from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico toward the United States, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Even though no organized tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane will move into Texas through early this week, tropical moisture will still be plentiful. There is the potential for a few inches to perhaps a half a foot of rain to fall on some locations over a period of several days.
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There are a number of factors that will lead to repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms that will concentrate on southeastern and central Texas as well as the central Gulf Coast states in the coming days.
"A broad zone of low pressure exists between high pressure off the southeast U.S. coast and over the interior western U.S.," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said. "In the upper levels of the atmosphere, there is a large southward dip in the jet stream that is also contributing to the wet pattern."
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Areas just east of the jet stream dip will ultimately end up being the wettest in the pattern. That zone is likely to extend across the southeastern part of Texas into portions of southern Louisiana. Much of this region recently received frequent rainfall that helped reverse drought conditions that had built during the first two-thirds of the summer season.
Part of the zone that will be hit by the heaviest rain had an extremely dry and hot June and July, but then the pattern flipped to wetter and cooler conditions in August, according to Houk.
Rainfall in the Houston area during August ranged from 4-9 inches, which forecasters say is near average to two times that of normal for the month. Corpus Christi, Texas, picked up just over 11 inches of rain, which is about four times the normal of 2.75 inches.
About 50% of Texas remains in severe drought or worse, according to the latest United States Drought Monitor report. The greatest concentration of extreme to exceptional drought is in the central counties of the state, where many of the reservoirs are located.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to reach the central parts of the Lone Star State into early this week. AccuWeather meteorologists expect the rainfall in locations such as San Angelo and Abilene to be more sporadic. There is the likelihood of a shower or thunderstorm just about every day in Dallas, but nothing like what happened in mid-August is foreseen at this time. The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex was hit by a 1,000-year flooding event in August when 6-12 inches of rain poured down in a matter of hours.
"With a pattern such as this, there is always the risk of flash urban flooding and quick rises on small streams in the region," Houk said. Low water crossings, which are fairly common in rural locations of Texas, could be too dangerous to travel through into the new week.
"Disruptions to travel and outdoor Labor Day weekend holiday activities are to be expected due to the unsettled weather pattern," Houk added.
Some downpours will extend farther to the east and reach portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, northern Florida and Georgia this weekend. The downpours are not likely to have a significant impact on major river levels in the region.
In late August, torrential rain in the Jackson, Mississippi, area caused the Pearl River to rise, and the subsequent flooding affected the city's main water treatment plant. This left more than 150,000 people without access to drinkable running water.
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