Surprising Colts and Texans fight for playoff spot in regular-season finale

HOUSTON (9-7) at INDIANAPOLIS (9-7)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST, ESPN.

OPENING LINE: Texans by 1 1/2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

AGAINST THE SPREAD: Texans 8-8, Colts 9-7.

SERIES RECORD: Colts lead 33-10-1.

LAST MEETING: Colts beat Texans 31-20 on Sept. 17, 2023, in Houston.

LAST WEEK: Texans beat Titans 26-3, Colts beat Raiders 23-20.

TEXANS OFFENSE: OVERALL (10), RUSH (22), PASS (7), SCORING (14T).

TEXANS DEFENSE: OVERALL (14), RUSH (3T), PASS (25T), SCORING (13).

COLTS OFFENSE: OVERALL (15), RUSH (13), PASS (20), SCORING (10).

COLTS DEFENSE: OVERALL (24), RUSH (27), PASS (17), SCORING (27).

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Texans plus-9; Colts plus-3.

TEXANS PLAYER TO WATCH: DE Will Anderson Jr. is expected to play despite dealing with an ankle injury. The third overall pick in the draft returned last week after missing two games with the injury and still had two sacks despite playing limited snaps. His seven sacks this season are a franchise record for a rookie.

COLTS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Gardner Minshew. He already has won a career-best seven games this season. Securing No. 8, and earning a playoff berth, would give Minshew a new status around Indy. To do it, he'll need to limit the turnovers and needs to take advantage of a pass defense that allows 240.4 yards per game.

KEY MATCHUP: Stroud vs. Colts pass defense. The first indication of Stroud's incredible season came in the first meeting in Week 2. Despite getting sacked six times, Stroud went 30 of 47 with 384 yards and two TDs. He's been good in the 12 games since, getting sacked 25 times while throwing just five interceptions. With a young and potentially short-handed secondary and a strong pass rush, defensive coordinator Gus Bradley must find ways to make Stroud uncomfortable.

KEY INJURIES: DE Jonathan Greenard leads Houston with a career-high 12½ sacks, but could miss his second straight game with an injured ankle. LT Laremy Tunsil is expected to play despite leaving Sunday's game and missing practice this week an injured groin. WR Noah Brown has missed practice this week with a back injury. ... It's unclear whether the Colts will have CB Kenny Moore II (back) and No. 2 RB Zack Moss (right forearm). Both were inactive last week. C Ryan Kelly (ankle) and LG Quenton Nelson (ankle) also were on this week's injury report.

SERIES NOTES: Indy has won five of the past seven in this series with the teams also playing to one tie. ... Houston's lone win during that span came in last year's season finale and was the franchise's fourth victory in Indy. ... These teams entered their previous matchup with Stroud, Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson and first-year coaches Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans all seeking their first career wins. ... The Colts are chasing a 13th season sweep of the Texans. There have been seven splits among these AFC South foes since Houston's inaugural season in 2002. ... The Texans and Colts played one playoff game with Indy winning 21-7 in January 2019 at Houston.

STATS AND STUFF: The winner clinches a playoff berth and will win the AFC South — if Jacksonville loses. A loss ends one team's season. ... Houston moved into the playoff race by winning six of its past nine following a loss at Carolina. It is 3-4 on the road this season. ... Houston most recently made the postseason in 2019. … This is the first time the Texans have not played in the early Sunday time slot since Week 9 in 2022. … The Texans are 4-1 all time in Saturday games. ... Houston held Tennessee to 1 of 12 on third down and had its third six-sack game of the season last week. … The Texans have tied the franchise's single-season sacks record (45). … Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has 21 TD passes and just five interceptions. He needs 156 yards to reach 4,000. … WR Nico Collins (1,022 yards) is the fourth player in team history with a 1,000-yard season. … DT Sheldon Rankins scored the first touchdown of his career on a 13-yard fumble return last week. … DE Jerry Hughes, who was drafted by the Colts, had a sack and forced a fumble last week, giving him 70 sacks and 19 forced fumbles in his career. ... Houston has alternated wins and losses each of the past seven weeks while Indy has alternated wins and losses each of the past five weeks. Both teams won last week. ... The Colts have won six of their past eight, including three straight home games to improve to 4-4 on their home turf. ... Another victory would make Steichen the fifth consecutive first-year, non-interim coach to lead Indy into the postseason. The others are Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell, Chuck Pagano and Frank Reich. ... Indy is 6-2 in one-possession games this season, giving it the league's second-best winning percentage at .750. ... Minshew went 19 of 23 with 171 yards and one TD pass in relief of the injured Richardson at Houston. ... Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for five TDs in his past four games and had a season-high 96 yards in last weekend's victory. ... WR Michael Pittman Jr. needs eight catches to go from sixth to third on the franchise's single-season reception list, leapfrogging his coach, Reggie Wayne, and Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison. Pittman has caught a career-high 104 passes this season. ... WR Josh Downs needs one catch to break Indy's single-season rookie record (Bill Brooks, 65 in 1986). ... The Colts are fifth in the NFL with a franchise-record 49 sacks.

FANTASY TIP: Stroud certainly looks like a solid play against a defense that has struggled at times and has allowed the NFL's seventh-highest point total. But he's only produced six TDs on the road all season — four passing and two rushing. And while Taylor seems to be rounding into form after missing seven games, the Texans have been strong against the run. So this week's sneaky play is Pittman, who thrives under pressure.

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